Myth and Reality: The ERA and the Gender Gap in the 1980 Election

Attitudes toward the Equal Rights Amendment were not an importantfactor in the emergence of the "gender gap" in the 1980 presidentialelection. Conclusions to the contrary by news analysts, feministpolitical activists, and political scientists are based on acombination of the power of expectation, faulty analysis, andrandom bias in the most frequently used survey in politicalscience. The data analyzed herein were collected by the New York Timesand CBS News and processed by the New York Times and CBS Newsunder a grant from the Russell Sage Foundation; by Warren E.Miller and the National Election Studies of the Center for PoliticalStudies at the University of Michigan; and by the National OpinionResearch Center of the University of Chicago. The data wereprovided through the Interuniversity Consortium for Politicaland Social Research of the University of Michigan. The New YorkTimes, CBS News, the CPS, NORC, and the ICPSR bear no responsibilityfor the analysis and interpretations presented here.     

Late fertility decline in the Netherlands: The influence of religious denomination,socioeconomic group and region

Both published results from the 1930, 1947, 1960 and 1971 censuses and unpublished ones are used to examine the influence that religious denomination, socio-economic group and region exerted on the fertility of marriages contracted between 1876 and 1959. A theory formulated by Lesthaeghe and Wilson on the relation between modes of production and secularization and the pace of fertility decline in Western Europe offers — in combination with van Heek's views on the special position of Dutch Roman Catholicism — a starting point for an explanation of why the fertility decline of Roman Catholics, self-employed and agricultural labourers lagged behind.     

Individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty: An experimental study

These experiments are concerned with individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty. By exploiting the isolation effect the experiments were able to offer to 134 subjects the possibility of actually gaining or losing an important sum of money.The experimental data show that under risk as well as under complete ignorance the subjects' attitudes towards prospects of gains and towards prospects of losses are totally unrelated.The data also show that when facing prospects of gains, the subjects generally take the exact probabilities of the events into account, whereas, when facing prospects of losses many of then have only recourse to coarser categories of plausibility, or even no longer use their information at all.     

Efforts to improve international migration statistics: a historical perspective

During the past decade, the international statistical community has made several efforts to develop standards for the definition, collection and publication of statistics on international migration. This article surveys the history of official initiatives to standardize international migration statistics by reviewing the recommendations of the International Statistical Institute, International Labor Organization, and the UN, and reports a recently proposed agenda for moving toward comparability among national statistical systems. Heightening awareness of the benefits of exchange and creating motivation to implement international standards requires a 3-pronged effort from the international statistical community. 1st, it is essential to continue discussion about the significance of improvement, specifically standardization, of international migration statistics. The move from theory to practice in this area requires ongoing focus by migration statisticians so that conformity to international standards itself becomes a criterion by which national statistical practices are examined and assessed. 2nd, the countries should be provided with technical documentation to support and facilitate the implementation of the recommended statistical systems. Documentation should be developed with an understanding that conformity to international standards for migration and travel statistics must be achieved within existing national statistical programs. 3rd, the call for statistical research in this area requires more efforts by the community of migration statisticians, beginning with the mobilization of bilateral and multilateral resources to undertake the preceding list of activities.     

EXPERIMENTS WITH THE MIDDLE RESPONSE ALTERNATIVE IN SURVEY QUESTIONS

A series of experiments shows (1) that people are significantlymore likely to select the middle response alternative on anissue when it is explicitly offered to them as part of the questionthan when it is omitted; (2) that merely mentioning that thereis a middle alternative, in the preface to the question, makesit more likely that respondents will select it, even thoughit is not offered to them as an explicit choice; (3) that theorder in which the middle alternative is presented in the question—inthe middle or last position—can make a significant differencein the results, but that a "recency bias" does not occur invariably,or consistently; and (4) that people who select a middle responsealternative when it is offered would not necessarily answerthe question in the same way as other respondents if forcedto choose sides on the issue.     

THE PERSISTENCE OF POLITICAL ATTITUDES AMONG 1960s CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVISTS

A scattering of recent research has studied the current politicalbeliefs and attitudes of individuals identified as "1960s activists."In contrast to much of the treatment accorded such people inthe popular media, this research tends to find most of theseactivists currently liberal on a wide variety of political topics.However, in the absence of panel data, most of this researchhas had to assess any change in the activists' attitudes eitherby assuming the activists' past positions or by trusting totheir retrospective reports. In this paper we report on panel data from a large group ofwhite activists, mostly students, who spent the summer of 1965organizing voter registration drives in Southern black communities.In some specific areas on which the activists tended to holdrather extreme positions in 1965, they may have moderated by1984. However, their overall pattern of response on a wide varietyof issues is basically stable over this twenty-year period.     

USING DUAL FRAME DESIGNS TO REDUCE NONRESPONSE IN TELEPHONE SURVEYS

This article reports on the results of a series of experimentsdesigned to improve response rates for telephone surveys. Inthree surveys telephone households were selected using bothstandard random digit dialing (RDD) techniques and lists oftelephone numbers purchased from a commercial firm. In the RDDportions of the samples "cold contact" interviewing methodswere used; in the list frame portions advance letters were mailed,and the listed household name was used in the introduction.Experiments were designed to test the effects on response ratesof the advance letters and use of the listed household nameas a means of establishing rapport. The advance letters increasedresponse rates, but no difference could be attributed to theuse of names. The mixture of RDD and list sampling techniquesis also used to evaluate the effects of relative response rateson substantive findings. The cost consequences of these dualframe designs are assessed along a number of dimensions, andthe cost and error components of these designs are discussed.     

Voting cycles and the structure of individual preferences

Empirical studies have shown that cyclical preferences are infrequent, but they have been less clear about why. Using thermometer ratings from nationally-representative samples of the U.S., we examine preferences for presidential candidates in order to determine what it is about them that leads to few cycles. Single-peaked preferences as usually construed (meaning that all of a set of preferences satisfy single-peakedness criteria) are, of course, rare. Yet we find a high degree of unidimensionality in the sense that for any given set of preferences, a relatively high proportion of the preference orders are consistent with single-peakedness. We also find that the highest amounts of unidimensionality often do not occur along partisan or left/right lines. Strong feelings for or against candidates, often not derived from an issue base, form the basis for the dimensionality discovered.We would like to thank Daniel Severance for programming the random model calculations and three anonymous referees, whose comments were very helpful in clarifying the presentation in this paper.