Zero-Bias Locally Adaptive Density Estimators

Strategies for improving fixed non-negative kernel estimators have focused on reducing the bias, either by employing higher-order kernels or by adjusting the bandwidth locally. Intuitively, bandwidths in the tails should be relatively larger in order to reduce wiggles since there is less data available in the tails. We show that in regions where the density function is convex, it is theoretically possible to find local bandwidths such that the pointwise bias is exactly zero. The corresponding pointwise mean squared error converges at the parametric rate of O ( n ⁻¹ ) rather than the slower O ( n ^−4/5). These so-called zero-bias bandwidths are constant and are usually orders of magnitude larger than the optimal locally adaptive bandwidths predicted by asymptotic mean squared error analysis. We describe data-based algorithms for estimating zero-bias bandwidths over intervals where the density is convex. We find that our particular density estimator attains the usual O ( n ^−4/5) rate. However, we demonstrate that the algorithms can provide significant improvement in mean squared error, often clearly visually superior curves, and a new operating point in the usual bias-variance tradeoff.     

The Psychological Subject and Harré's Social Psychology: An Analysis of a Constructionist Case

Taking Rom Harré's social constructionism as a focus we point to and discuss the issue of the a priori psychological subject in social constructionist theory. While Harré indicates that interacting, intending beings are necessary for conversation to occur, he assumes that the primary human reality is conversation and that psychological life emerges from this social domain. Nevertheless, we argue that a fundamental and agentive psychological subject is implicit to his constructionist works. Our critical analyses focus upon Harré's understandings of persons, human development and human agency. Our intention is neither to suggest that this latent entity must be understood in a Cartesian sense nor is it to ask for an explicit accounting of an autonomous agent. Rather, our claim is simply that psychological subjectivity is reflexively entailed in Harré's human psychology. We suggest that this pertains more generally to social constructionist theory.     

AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF PATTERNS OF PRIORITIES AND TRADE-OFFS AMONG OPERATIONS MANAGERS

A survey of 15 firms showed that agreement among operations managers on competitive priorities is related to agreement on long-run strategic trade-off decisions and not to agreement on shortrun trade-offs. Furthermore, intended short-run actions were often in conflict with stated competitive priorities. Use of management-by-objectives linked to performance appraisal was related to agreement on competitive priorities.     

The Relationship Among Body Mass,Wealth, and Inequality Across the BMI Distribution: Evidence From Nineteenth-Century Prison Records

Nineteenth-century U.S. Black and White body mass indexes (BMIs) were distributed symmetrically; neither wasting nor obesity was common. BMI values were also greater for Blacks than for Whites. During industrialization in the nineteenth century in the United States, there was a negative relationship between BMIs and average state-level wealth and an inverse relationship between BMI and wealth inequality. After controlling for wealth and inequality, rural agricultural farmers had greater BMI values than their urban counterparts in other occupations.     

RISK TAKING IN CONTESTS AND THE ROLE OF CARROTS AND STICKS

We study contests in which contestants choose both work effort and the variance of output (risk). Winner-take-all contests generate incentives for contestants to engage in costly risk taking, which is inefficient if the contest organizer values the aggregate output of all contestants. The addition of a penalty for ranking last (retaining a prize for ranking first) enables the organizer to independently control contestants' incentives to exert productive effort and to increase output variance. In this way, the organizer can eliminate risk-seeking behavior in settings where it is wasteful, but also control risk seeking when it is desirable, such as in research tournaments. ( JEL J33, C72)     

HOW IMPORTANT ARE CAPITAL AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH?

We examine the relative importance of the growth of physical and human capital and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using newly organized data on 145 countries that spans more than 100 years for 23 of these countries. For all countries, only 14% of average output growth per worker is associated with TFP growth. We use priors from theories to construct estimates of the relative importance of the variances of aggregate input growth and TFP growth across countries. Much of the importance of the variance of TFP growth across countries is associated with negative TFP growth. (JEL O47 , O50 , O57 , O30 , N10 )     

PARENTAL SUBSTANCE USE AND FOSTER CARE: EVIDENCE FROM TWO METHAMPHETAMINE SUPPLY SHOCKS

Foster care caseloads have nearly doubled over the last three decades. Parental methamphetamine (meth) use grew significantly during the same period. While child welfare workers and law enforcement claim that parental meth use contributes to foster care growth, the evidence for a causal effect has not been determined. This paper presents the first evidence of a causal effect of meth on foster care admissions using two exogenous supply‐side interventions in meth markets from the late 1990s for identification. First, we find that restrictions on meth precursor distribution caused meth use (proxied by white meth self‐referred treatment cases) to decline 4.1%. Second, using two‐stage least squares, we estimate a positive elasticity of foster care cases with respect to meth use of 1.54. We also estimate elasticities of 1.03 and 1.49 for cases of child neglect and parental abuse, respectively. These results suggest that child welfare policies should be designed specifically for the children of meth‐using parents. (JEL I12, J13, K42)