RISK TAKING IN CONTESTS AND THE ROLE OF CARROTS AND STICKS

We study contests in which contestants choose both work effort and the variance of output (risk). Winner-take-all contests generate incentives for contestants to engage in costly risk taking, which is inefficient if the contest organizer values the aggregate output of all contestants. The addition of a penalty for ranking last (retaining a prize for ranking first) enables the organizer to independently control contestants' incentives to exert productive effort and to increase output variance. In this way, the organizer can eliminate risk-seeking behavior in settings where it is wasteful, but also control risk seeking when it is desirable, such as in research tournaments. ( JEL J33, C72)     

HOW IMPORTANT ARE CAPITAL AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH?

We examine the relative importance of the growth of physical and human capital and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using newly organized data on 145 countries that spans more than 100 years for 23 of these countries. For all countries, only 14% of average output growth per worker is associated with TFP growth. We use priors from theories to construct estimates of the relative importance of the variances of aggregate input growth and TFP growth across countries. Much of the importance of the variance of TFP growth across countries is associated with negative TFP growth. (JEL O47 , O50 , O57 , O30 , N10 )     

PARENTAL SUBSTANCE USE AND FOSTER CARE: EVIDENCE FROM TWO METHAMPHETAMINE SUPPLY SHOCKS

Foster care caseloads have nearly doubled over the last three decades. Parental methamphetamine (meth) use grew significantly during the same period. While child welfare workers and law enforcement claim that parental meth use contributes to foster care growth, the evidence for a causal effect has not been determined. This paper presents the first evidence of a causal effect of meth on foster care admissions using two exogenous supply‐side interventions in meth markets from the late 1990s for identification. First, we find that restrictions on meth precursor distribution caused meth use (proxied by white meth self‐referred treatment cases) to decline 4.1%. Second, using two‐stage least squares, we estimate a positive elasticity of foster care cases with respect to meth use of 1.54. We also estimate elasticities of 1.03 and 1.49 for cases of child neglect and parental abuse, respectively. These results suggest that child welfare policies should be designed specifically for the children of meth‐using parents. (JEL I12, J13, K42)     

STABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE U.S. PUBLIC'S KNOWLEDGE OF POLITICS

The U.S. public's current knowledge about politics is comparedwith levels of knowlege in the 1940s and 1950s. Fourteen questionsasked by Gallup on various surveys from 1945 to 1957 were includedon a larger survey of political knowledge conducted by telephonein 1989 with a randomly selected sample of 610 adult U.S. residents.On 8 of the 14 items, the percentage answering correctly in1989 was higher than in the earlier surveys (by 4–15 points).One item showed an increase of 1 percent, two were down 1 percent,and three others declined by 5 percent, 9 percent, and 10 percent.When level of education is controlled, however, levels of knowledgeappear to have declined for most of the items. A reanalysisof some of the original Gallup data is used to estimate theeffectiveness of schools in transmitting political informationin 1989 compared with the earlier years.     

FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC REGULATION: THE CASE OF THE 1969 COAL MINE HEALTH AND SFNETY ACT

How does government regulation influence the structure of industries? In the coal mining industry increased sfnety can be provided with personal protection devices or with engineering controls; but the type of sfnety standard imposed is important because larger producers have a comparative advantage complying with engineering controls. Time series evidence indicates that the 1969 Coal Mine Health and Sfnety Act, by imposing engineering controls, drove out smaller, less sfne mines, thereby shifting production toward larger mines.     

ESTIMATING COMMUNITY STANDARDS: THE USE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE EVIDENCE IN AN OBSCENITY PROSECUTION

Elements of the legal test for obscenity of sexually explicitmaterial indicted in a criminal case are examined. A cross-sectionof residents of Mecklenburg County (Charlotte, NC) were randomlyassigned to view either one of the sexually explicit films andthe sexually explicit magazine charged in the criminal case,or a control film. Before and after the viewing, residents judgedthe materials' appeal to a prurient interest (a shameful, morbid,unhealthy interest in sex) and patent offen siveness (communitytolerance for such material). The results indicated that therespondents felt that the films and magazine did not appealto a shameful, morbid, or unhealthy interest in sex, nor didthey perceive these materials as going beyond the level of toleranceregarding depictions of sexual conduct for the average adultin that community. A lower percentage of subjects thought thecommunity tolerated the materials they had just viewed thanwhen they were asked to report on what they personally tolerated.Fewer people felt the films appealed to a shameful, morbid,or unhealthy interest in sex after they had an opportunity tosee them than before viewing. The advantages of providing jurorsin obscenity cases with information about community standardsbased on summations of personal tolerance for materials actuallycharged in these cases, rather than hypothetical judgments aboutthe community and obscenity, is discussed.     

THE ILLUSION OF INTIMACY TELEVISION AND THE ROLE OF CANDIDATE PERSONAL QUALITIES IN VOTER CHOICE

The role of television in the increased candidate orientednessof voters in U.S. presidential elections was examined usingdata from eight National Election Studies conducted by the SurveyResearch Center at The University of Michigan. The importanceof candidate personal qualities and traits was estimated usingvoter responses to open-ended questions about the candidates.Candidate personal qualities became more important for televisiondependent voters during the 1960s, and in each post-1964 electionwere less important for voters who relied on newspapers thanfor those who relied on television. The differences did notappear to be a function of the higher level of education ofnewspaper readers.     

Human Embryonic Stem Cell Research: An Argument for National Research Review

The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) recently published voluntary guidelines for human embryonic stem (hES) cell research. The NAS guidelines propose two levels of oversight. At the local level, research institutions are to create Embryonic Stem Cell Research Oversight (ESCRO) committees with a mandate to assess the scientific merit and ethical acceptability of hES cell research. At the national level, a new committee is to be created, not to review specific research proposals, but rather to periodically assess, and as needed revise, the NAS guidelines. In this article, we critically assess this proposal. In particular, we review the benefits and limitations of local research review. On this basis, we argue that local review is insufficient for hES cell research and that while there are obvious pragmatic and political reasons for the NAS to favor local research review, there are more compelling reasons for the NAS to have recommended national review of hES cell research proposals.