Pseudo-Opinions on Public Affairs

This article reports on the often suspected but rarely researchedtendency of survey respondents to give opinions on topics towhich they have given little or no thought. The findings, basedon a question about a fictitious public affairs issue, do showthat the magnitude of the problem is substantial. But the dataalso demonstrate that this phenomenon does not represent simplerandom error, reflecting instead basic social-psychologicaldispositions which can be elicited, unwittingly, in the contextof the interview.     

SHOULD CITIES GO FOR THE GOLD? THE LONG‐TERM IMPACTS OF HOSTING THE OLYMPICS

The Summer Olympics bring hundreds of thousands of visitors and generate upward of $10 billion in spending for the host city. This large influx of tourism dollars is only part of the overall impact of hosting the Olympic Games. In order to host the visitors and sporting events, cities must make sizable investments in infrastructure such as airports, arenas, and highways. Additionally, the publicity and international exposure of a host city may benefit international trade and capital flows. Proponents argue that this investment will pay off through increased economic growth, but research confirming these claims is lacking. This paper examines whether hosting an Olympiad improves a city's long‐term growth. In order to control for the self‐selection of cities that host Olympic Games, this paper matches Olympic host cities with cities that were finalists for the Olympic Games, but were not selected by the International Olympic Committee. A difference‐in‐difference estimator examines post‐Olympic impacts for host cities between 1950 and 2005. Regression results provide no long‐term impacts of hosting an Olympics on two measures of population, real Gross Domestic Product per capita and trade openness. (JEL O18, R11)     

INTRODUCING INTERNATIONAL ISSUES INTO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT CURRICULA

As the world moves toward a global economy, it is increasingly important that operations management courses prepare students to address globalization issues. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the dialog concerning how international topics are best incorporated into operations management curricula. On the basis of the results of a survey of operations management academicians worldwide, current course offerings are cataloged and topic areas critical to the globalization of operations are identified. Four major reasons for studying international operations management are proposed, which provide the basis for recommendations on how international topics can be introduced into established operations courses and for the design of an elective course in global operations. Finally, teaching materials relevant to international operations are surveyed.     

On a Posterior Predictive Density Sample Size Criterion

Abstract.  Let Ω be a space of densities with respect to some σ -finite measure μ and let Π be a prior distribution having support Ω with respect to some suitable topology. Conditional on f , let X ⁿ  = ( X ₁ ,…, X _n ) be an independent and identically distributed sample of size n from f . This paper introduces a Bayesian non-parametric criterion for sample size determination which is based on the integrated squared distance between posterior predictive densities. An expression for the sample size is obtained when the prior is a Dirichlet mixture of normal densities.     

IMPLICATIONS OF IMMIGRATION POLICIES FOR THE U.S. FARM SECTOR AND WORKFORCE

We develop a theoretical model using migration and trade theory to examine the effects of domestic and border enforcement policies on unauthorized workers and the U.S. agricultural sector. The theoretical results show that heightened immigration policies increase the illegal farm wage rate, and reduce the employment of unauthorized farm workers and exports. The empirical analysis show that increased domestic enforcements curtail the number of undocumented farm workers by an average of 8,947 and commodity exports to Mexico by an average of $180 million. The tighter border control curbs illegal farm workers by 8,147 and reduces farm exports by $181 million. (JEL F160)     

Apostles and Zionists: The influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or `Spirit-type' churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

RISK, TRANSACTIONS CHARGES, AND THE MARKET FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE SERVICES

This paper suggests that transactions charges in foreign exchange markets, rather than being solely brokerage fees, represent exchange rate uncertainty in periods of great fluctuations by including remuneration for the assumption of risk by foreign exchange dealers. Since most of the cost of exchange rate uncertainty may be largely endogenously included in the foreign exchange markets, attempts to examine the efficient market hypothesis in these markets should most appropriately include specific consideration of transactions costs. There appears to be empirical support for the premise that transactions charges are positively related to exchange rate risk, and, as well, inclusion of contemporaneous bid-ask spreads into the interest parity schedule leaves few unexplained profits from dollar-pound covered interest arbitrage during the 1970's and underscores the notion of classifying periods by degree of turbulence in analyzing covered interest arbitrage.     

Critical Realism and Causality: Tracing the Aristotelian Legacy

Rom Harré's generative account of causality has been drawn on heavily by advocates of critical realism. Yet Harré argues that critical realists often exaggerate the extent to which powerful causal explanations of social phenomena can be developed. Certain proponents of critical realism have responded to Harré's criticisms by suggesting that it is useful to consider the relevant issues in relation to the familiar Aristotelian classification of four causes. In this paper I contribute to this debate and pursue a similar strategy. The paper adds to existing contributions in two ways. Firstly, I outline how Harré sees his generative account of causality as linking up with Aristotelian themes. It emerges that Harré at times conceives of his generative theory as part of an alternative to the Aristotelian system while at other times he draws connections between it and a reformulated account of formal causality. Secondly, I argue that when we consider the positions of Harré and proponents of critical realism on the scope of causal explanation in the social realm in relation to the interpretation of final causes offered by another philosopher profoundly influenced by the Aristotelian tradition, namely Charles Peirce, we can see both as limited in certain respects.