Social Work Administration: Principles and Practices,Harleigh B. Trecker. New York: Association Press, 1971. 287 Pages, $9.95 Hardbound

Abstract

This paper reviews graduate applications/admissions data for 1975–84, and shows that as applications have decreased, the acceptance rate has increased. Referring to the NASW Code of Ethics, the paper suggests this trend raises a number of ethical issues with which the field should be concerned. Traditional alternatives to liberalized admissions are also reviewed and their perceived efficacy is examined. It is suggested that hold-harmless strategies are insufficient to counteract the societal trends which adversely affect graduate social work education and, further, that the field must begin to proactively plan for fewer, or at least smaller, graduate programs.     

When Adoption Is Not an Option: Counseling Implications Related to Surrogacy

Through the author's personal story, this article details a case in which traditional conception and adoption were not options available for starting a family. It gives the author's rational for choosing surrogacy and describes his experience with surrogacy. This article provides an overview of the surrogacy process and concludes with implications counselors may consider and apply to their clinical practice.     

An integrated system for demographic estimation from two age distributions

This paper presents a simple method for estimating a birth rate and a level of mortality for an intercensal period. The birth rate is estimated from the intercept of a line fitted to data and the level of mortality from the slope of that line. The formula that is developed is based upon a recent generalization of stable population relations. An estimate of childhood mortality level is an optional but significant piece of additional input. An important by-product of the procedure is an estimate of the true age distribution.     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Determinants and Consequences of Jury Racial Diversity: Empirical Findings, Implications, and Directions for Future Research

One of the ideals underlying any jury system is that those groups of citizens charged with the responsibility of deciding cases should be representative of the communities from which they are selected. Anecdotal and empirical data suggest that reality often falls short of this ideal, however, as many empanelled juries are less diverse than community demographics would dictate. This article reviews the obstacles that stand in the way of jury diversity and typically, by association, jury representativeness. These range from system-related problems regarding jury source lists and summonses to more psychological considerations such as the pervasive, yet difficult-to-identify impact of race on attorneys' jury selection judgments. Drawing on psychological theory and findings, the implications of the failure to empanel diverse juries are also examined, both in terms of laypeople's attitudes toward the legal system as well as the actual decision-making performance of juries. Policy changes intended to promote diverse, representative juries are considered, as are specific directions for future research.