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71.
Age at first marriage in Malawi: a Bayesian multilevel analysis using a discrete time-to-event model 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Samuel Manda Renate Meyer 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2005,168(2):439-455
Summary. The paper presents a hierarchical discrete time survival model for the analysis of the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data to assess the determinants of transition to marriage among women in Malawi. The model explicitly accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity by using family and community random effects with cross-level correlation structure. A nonparametric technique is used to model the base-line discrete hazard dynamically. Parameters of the model are computed by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The results show that rising age at marriage is a combination of birth cohort and education effects, depends considerably on the family and to some extent on the community in which a woman resides and the correlation between family and community random effects is negative. These results confirm a downward trend in teenage marriage and that raising women's education levels in sub-Saharan Africa has the beneficial effect of increasing age at marriage, and by implication reducing total fertility rates. The negative correlation between family and community random effects has policy implications in that targeting communities with an intervention to increase age at first marriage may not necessarily yield reduced fertility levels in individual families. A campaign that is geared towards individual families would achieve the desired goals. Overall, the findings point to the need for the Government in Malawi to enact public policies which are geared at vastly improving women's education at higher levels. The variation in marriage rates over families poses problems in delivering the policy, since particular policies must be devised for specific groups of families to accomplish the required social and health objectives. 相似文献
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We develop and test a model of nonprofit executive compensation based on theories of organizational science, economics, and agency theory. Our sample consisted of 114 directors of small business development centers in the United States. Consistent with our model, we find significant effects for human capital, organizational size, and organizational affiliation. We find tentative support for a significant pay‐for‐performance relationship. We find that when education, tenure, size, performance, and affiliation are held constant, female executives are compensated significantly less than male executives. 相似文献
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We estimate the death rate of United States troops deployed to Iraq from the beginning of the US invasion through 30 September 2006. Eighty percent of the deaths in Iraq were combat‐related. The death rate in Iraq is lower than that of the civilian population of the United States but substantially higher than that of young adults. It is much lower than the death rate of US troops in Vietnam, in part because a much smaller fraction die among those wounded in Iraq. We also estimate relative mortality levels for US troops according to numerous demographic variables through 30 November 2006. The risk of death in Iraq per deployment is shown to be highest for Marines; Naval and Air Force personnel in Iraq have lower death rates than the civilian population of comparable age. Other categories with above‐average mortality in Iraq are enlisted troops, males, younger persons, and Hispanics. 相似文献
76.
Vincent Jeffries Barry V. Johnston Lawrence T. Nichols Samuel P. Oliner Edward Tiryakian Jay Weinstein 《The American Sociologist》2006,37(3):67-83
Conclusion This article has presented a vision of what a field of altruism and social solidarity could potentially involve. An additional
perspective on the nature of this field and how it could contribute to the discipline and to society is provided by the science
of psychology. In the last decade a fundamental new orientation has developed in this discipline, growing from the pioneering
work of Martin E.P. Seligman. Generally identified as “positive psychology” it represents a shift from a focus on trying to
understand and find solutions to mental illness and various pathologies of thought and behavior in a “disease model” to a
focus on human strengths, virtues, and other positive characteristics. This shift in focus is regarded as making a direct
contribution to understanding what is best in human emotions and traits and how society can support the psychological flourishing
of individuals. This new perspective in turn provides increased awareness of how the problems studied in the disease model
can more effectively be prevented (Seligman, 2003, 2005). The importance of this focus on the positive for sociology and a
call to action is stated by Seligman (2003): The third pillar of positive psychology is the study of positive institutions
and positive communities. 相似文献
77.
This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping. 相似文献
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