Combining forward and backward mortality estimation

Demographers often form estimates by combining information from two data sources—a challenging problem when one or both data sources are incomplete. A classic example entails the construction of death probabilities, which requires death counts for the subpopulations under study and corresponding base population estimates. Approaches typically entail ‘back projection', as in Wrigley and Schofield's seminal analysis of historical English data, or ‘inverse’ or ‘forward projection’ as used by Lee in his important reanalysis of that work, both published in the 1980s. Our paper shows how forward and backward approaches can be optimally combined, using a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. We apply the method to the estimation of death probabilities for relatively small subpopulations within the United States (men born 1930–39 by state of birth by birth cohort by race), combining data from vital statistics records and census samples.     

Pilot test of a home-based program to prevent perceived insufficient milk

Problem

Although the World Health Organization and American Academy of Pediatrics recommend exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months, only 22% of U.S. mothers do so. Mothers’ perceived insufficient milk (PIM) is the primary reason for breastfeeding discontinuation globally. There are two changeable causes of PIM: (1) mothers’ misinterpretation of their infant’s behavior, and (2) mothers’ lack of confidence in their ability to breastfeed.

Some Empirical Findings on Short-Term Forecasting: Technique Complexity and Combinations

The purpose of this research is to determine if prior findings that favor simple forecasting techniques and technique combinations hold true in a short-term forecasting environment, where demand data can be quite volatile. Twenty-two time series of daily data from a real business setting are used to test one-period ahead forecasts, the epitome of short-term forecasting. The time series vary systematically as to data volatility and forecast difficulty. Forecast accuracy is measured in terms of both mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean percentage error (MPE).     

Minimizing stress in the workplace: Whose responsibility is it?

Work-related stress is pervasive in today's society. Its far-reaching effects on worker health, productivity, and organizational commitment have caused legislators and researchers alike to rethink stress prevention strategies that will best serve all systems involved. This article identifies the issues limiting the development of primary stress reduction programs in the workplace and provides insight as to the emerging global legislative initiatives that support this issue.     

Enemies of abortion

Throughout history various religious groups have worked to impose their moralistic view on others, and now the Catholic church in their Right to Life movement is focusing on dramatically exploiting the abortion issue with the use of inflammatory rhetoric, lurid propaganda and outright political blackmail. In 1972 the organized efforts of the New York Right to Life Committee brought about the repeal of that state's liberal abortion bill which was only saved by Nelson Rockefeller's veto. And, the movement has gained momentum since the Supreme Court decision in January 1973 in support of a woman's right to the decision of whether to terminate or continue a pregnancy. In pursuit of their current goal of reversal of the Supreme Court decision by a constitutional amendment, they swarmed into Washington on the anniversary of the decision to rally support for Rep. Lawrence J. Hogan's (Maryland) constitutional amendment which supports the concept of the fetus as a person from the moment of conception of life. Another bill is Senator Buckley's which grants protection to the fetus from the time a biologically identifiable being comes into existence and also allows for pregnancy termination if continuation would result in the death of the mother. Buckley's amendment has the support of some protestants, a few orthodox rabbis, the most conservative branch of the Lutheran church and members of some fundamentalist Christian sects. The National Association for the Repeal of Abortion Laws has been the only organization devoted to the single purpose of supporting legal abortion and the only one utilizing militant tactics to do so. The case for support of legal abortion is clear in that maternal deaths have declined from 35 per 100,000 in 1970, the year the abortion law was liberalized in New York, to 27 per 100,000 in 1972. Also, the number of admissions to Harlem Hospital for botched abortions dropped from 1,054 in 1965 to 292 in 1971, and the city's birthrate has declined 12%. Yet, the enemies of abortion gained a victory in December when the Senate passed the Buckley amendment which would ban Medicaid payments for abortion and again thereby would make legal abortion only available to the rich. Victories such as this can only be considered the beginning to the passage of a constitutional amendment, but the Right to Life movement must be recognized as the real threat that it is or women will lose their right to decide whether to continue or terminate a pregnancy before they even realize that this right is endangered.