An Application of Vector Time Series Techniques to Macroeconomic Forecasting

A wide variety of time series techniques are now used for generating forecasts of economic variables, with each technique attempting to summarize and exploit whatever regularities exist in a given data set. It appears that many researchers arbitrarily choose one of these techniques. The purpose of this article is to provide an example for which the choice of time series technique appears important; merely choosing arbitrarily among available techniques may lead to suboptimal results.     

Hazards of stigma: the sexual and physical abuse of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adolescents in the United States and Canada

Some studies suggest lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) teens are at higher risk than peers for violence at home, in school, and in the community. That can bring them into the child welfare system or services for runaway and homeless teens. This study compared self-reported experiences of sexual and physical abuse based on sexual orientation and gender in seven population-based surveys of youth. The authors used c2 and age-adjusted odds of abuse to compare bisexual to heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, and gay and lesbian students. They also provide case studies to illustrate the experiences of such youth.     

Tests for cycling in a signalling pathway

Summary.  Cellular signalling pathways, mediating receptor activity to nuclear gene activation, are generally regarded as feed forward cascades. We analyse measured data of a partially observed signalling pathway and address the question of possible feed-back cycling of involved biochemical components between the nucleus and cytoplasm. First we address the question of cycling in general, starting from basic assumptions about the system. We reformulate the problem as a statistical test leading to likelihood ratio tests under non-standard conditions. We find that the modelling approach without cycling is rejected. Afterwards, to differentiate two different transport mechanisms within the nucleus, we derive the appropriate dynamical models which lead to two systems of ordinary differential equations. To compare both models we apply a statistical testing procedure that is based on bootstrap distributions. We find that one of both transport mechanisms leads to a dynamical model which is rejected whereas the other model is satisfactory.     

A Developmental Stage Hypothesis For Non-Marital Dyadic Relationships*

Within diverse sets of nonmarital relationships it is postulated that similar developmental stages emerge. Delineation of these stages provides a framework for understanding the many complexities of nonmarital interacting systems. Such a paradigm further helps those who encounter these relationships, either professionally or personally, to face the resulting conflicts in a way which does not impede future growth of the relationships. Five hypothetical developmental stages are presented and applied to two types of nonmarital dyads. Case studies further explain the conceptual model.     

College students' living arrangements and attitudes toward family roles: Demographic and value correlates

Using data from the college population, Pearson correlations and regression were used to examine three hypotheses. The major hypothesis was that “conformity-oriented” values are associated with college students' traditional living arrangements and family-related attitudes, while “self-directed” values are associated with nontraditional attitudes and behavior. Two other hypotheses focused on interrelationships among demographic variables, values, family-related attitudes, and living arrangements. General support was found for the major value-orientation hypothesis and mixed support for the secondary hypotheses. Comparing these findings with those of several other studies, we propose that there may be a subset of human values associated with general tendencies toward confomity and resistance to change on the one hand, and experimentation and receptivity to change on the other. A typology of such value orientations is put forward for future research in areas of sex roles, social change, sociopolitical conflict, and attitude and/or behavior change.     

Developing a manualized couples treatment for domestic violence: overcoming challenges

This paper describes challenges faced in a four-year project to develop a manualized couples treatment program for domestic violence. The couples treatment program is an add-on to a male batterer program where the male partner has perpetrated mild-to-moderate violence, yet both partners want to remain together. The project involved the cooperation of a variety of community agencies and referrals from key domestic violence programs. While some anticipated challenges did not materialize over the course of the project, unanticipated challenges did. Qualitative data collected from therapists and clients throughout the project was used to refine the treatment approach.     

The anger management scale: development and preliminary psychometric properties

This article introduces the Anger Management Scale (AMS). Managing anger constructively without violence is at the core of many treatment programs for domestic violence offenders and prevention programs for youth. There is no measure, however, specifically developed to monitor these skills. The AMS was designed to assess very concrete, specific cognitions and behaviors that can increase or decrease anger in intimate partner relationships and therefore influence the respondent's level of partner violence. In addition to the full 36-item scale, there are 20-item and 12-item short forms. The AMS has four subscales: Escalating Strategies (behaviors that increase reactivity to the partner), Negative Attributions (cognitions such as blame or negative intentions attributed to the partner of the respondent), Self-Awareness (awareness of physiological changes indicating rising anger), and Calming Strategies (behaviors that decrease reactivity to the partner). Preliminary psychometric data based on a college student sample (n = 475) show a meaningful factor structure, good reliability (alpha .70 to .87), and good construct validity.     

Negotiated time-out: a de-escalation tool for couples

Many state domestic violence intervention standards mandate that treatment for offenders should be separate from any treatment offered to victims. In this article we advocate that in cases of low-level violence, when couples choose to remain together, certain aspects of treatment should be offered conjointly. Specifically, our feedback from victims and offenders suggests that one tool generally taught to offenders-time-out--is often ineffective and can be used abusively when partners are not taught the tool concurrently. We describe the negotiated time-out procedure that we developed and use feedback from our clients to illustrate its usefulness.