On estimating the distribution of data envelopment analysis efficiency scores: an application to nursing homes’ care planning process

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a deterministic econometric model for calculating efficiency by using data from an observed set of decision-making units (DMUs). We propose a method for calculating the distribution of efficiency scores. Our framework relies on estimating data from an unobserved set of DMUs. The model provides posterior predictive data for the unobserved DMUs to augment the frontier in the DEA that provides a posterior predictive distribution for the efficiency scores. We explore the method on a multiple-input and multiple-output DEA model. The data for the example are from a comprehensive examination of how nursing homes complete a standardized mandatory assessment of residents.     

USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.     

关于珠三角河网地带路桥衔接处沉降差问题的探析

对珠江三角河网地带存在严重的路桥衔接处路面沉降差问题的原因进行了分析，指出目前设计规范存 在的不足，提出了解决该问题的建议，并介绍处理该问题的工程实践方法．     

Physician-sponsored networks. Will physicians take back medicine?

Until about the late 1980s, American physicians and their allies, hospitals and the health care manufacturing industries, dominated all facets of the health system--the clinical, the economic, and the political. The bulk of these providers' revenue flowed to them from a highly fragmented insurance system whose governing principle was to provide each insured patient free choice of doctor and hospital. Two distinct, concurrent shifts threaten to erode the medical profession's traditional dominance. The first is a rapid, general shift of control from the supply side of the health sector to its demand side. The second is a shift away from government control, over which organized medicine held much sway in the past, toward private regulators--the executives of the managed care industry. Is the trend towards greater dependence of practicing physicians on non-physician executives inevitable, or can physicians retain--and, in part, regain--their hitherto autonomous position in the health system?     

Comparing relative importance of the same component in a series system in two environments

The relative performance of a component of a series system in two different environments is considered. The conditional probability of the failure of the system due to the failure of the specified component given that the system failed before time t is regarded as a measure of relative importance of the component to the system. A U-statistic test for checking the equality of the relative importance of the component to the system in two different environments against the alternative that the relative importance is smaller in one of the environments, is proposed. Some simulation results for estimating the power of the test are reported. The proposed test is applied to one real data set and it is seen that a different aspect of the data is brought out by this comparison than that by the comparisons of the absolute importance functions such as the subsurvival functions, considered in earlier studies.     

Innovations to Make Markets More Inclusive for the Poor

Market failures, government failures and some of the characteristics of both the poor and business actors as well as their environment can act as barriers preventing the poor from participating more actively in markets, both as consumers and as producers. Private actors ‐ including for‐profit and not‐for‐profit entities, often in partnership with the public sector ‐ have been able to mitigate some of these constraints through innovations that have helped to make markets more inclusive for the poor, enabling them not just to gain access, but also to participate in ways that enhance their economic empowerment and human development. This article identifies the strategies and innovations used and devises a possible typology for them.