The Structured Interview of Family Assessment Risk: Convergent Validity,Inter-rater Reliability and Structural Relations

The quality of parenting, composition and socio-economic status are family risk or protective factors on juvenile delinquency, however, there is not an instrument to help psychologists and social workers to specifically assess the adolescent offender’s family. This study set out to accomplish an additional validation study of the structured interview of family assessment risk (SIFAR), a structured professional judgment tool for the assessment of family risk and protective factors of juvenile delinquents. The statistical analyses included inter-rater reliability, convergent validity with YLS/CMI, the Partial Least Squares approach to structural equation modeling and receiving operator characteristics (ROC) analysis. A sample of 130 male adolescent delinquents detained in Portuguese forensic facilities and their parents, were paired analyzed. The YLS/CMI was used to analyze the convergent validity with SIFAR. SIFAR shows a strong correlation with the YLS/CMI family context, moderate to high values of inter-rater reliability; SIFAR factors show that they are predictive determinants of the Moderate Four risk factors. ROC analysis shows adequate accuracy power. The findings show that SIFAR it is useful as an additional assessment tool for structured risk assessment instruments since it allows understanding the vulnerabilities and strengths of the delinquent’s family.     

Effects of Alternative Policies on Income Redistribution: Evidence from Brazil

Despite recent successes, Brazilian income (cash) transfer policies remain controversial, and alternative approaches to income redistribution are being actively considered. This article contributes to this debate, analysing the effects of several alternative policies for income redistribution in the Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. Simulations were conducted consistent with the following policies: direct transfer of income, reduction of taxes, and incentives to agricultural exports. The results suggest that transfer of income is the most effective in promoting redistribution of income, with a positive impact on the level of welfare of the poorest households.     

中国农村生育率的下降:一项基于行为制度方法的研究

有很多模型解释自20世纪60年代以来中国生育率的快速下降,及其在不同地区起始时间的差异。对于引起生育行为变化的最主要因素是有意的政策控制,还是体制变化,抑或是通常的现代化因素,学者们各有争论。在此,我们采用一种行为—体制化的方式将分析从3个不同农村地区收集来的民族志和问卷调查资料。这3个地区包括浙江省的萧山县,河北省磁县,和广东省英德县,它们生育率下降的模式各不相同。我们的分析显示,以上3组因素没有一组能独立解释这3个地方生育率下降的不同开始时间和不同速度。要解释3地生育水平下降的不同模式,我们需要考虑生育率下降早期,包括社会文化环境(如教育的普及,生育控制的意识形态,社会性别关系等)和政治经济体系(如经济发展,计划生育政策,集体劳动体系等)在内的各种地区差异。     

Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.

Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors). Invoking the principles of input-output (I-O) and decomposition analysis, the article offers a framework for describing how terrorism-induced perturbations can propagate due to interconnectedness. Data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is utilized to present applications to serve as test beds for the proposed framework. Specifically, a case study estimating the economic impact of airline demand perturbations to national-level U.S. sectors is made possible using I-O matrices. A ranking of the affected sectors according to their vulnerability to perturbations originating from a primary sector (e.g., air transportation) can serve as important input to risk management. For example, limited resources can be prioritized for the "top-n" sectors that are perceived to suffer the greatest economic losses due to terrorism. In addition, regional decomposition via location quotients enables the analysis of local-level terrorism events. The Regional I-O Multiplier System II (RIMS II) Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is the agency responsible for releasing the regional multipliers for various geographical resolutions (economic areas, states, and counties). A regional-level case study demonstrates a process of estimating the economic impact of transportation-related scenarios on industry sectors within Economic Area 010 (the New York metropolitan region and vicinities).     

How NASA moved from R & D to operations

This paper investigates the initial planning process for the transition of an organization from a R & D environment to an Operations environment. Using a developed transition life cycle model, the paper demonstrates a four step analysis of the management of the transition. Further, the paper suggests the utilization of existing methods for achieving a smooth transformation under various levels of technical, political, cultural, managerial, and economic uncertainties. Finally, the paper lists possible courses of action and considerations for the transition once the initial planning stage is completed. The concepts herein were used to begin planning the change, from R & D to Operations, of the Space Shuttle Program at NASA.     

Intergenerational Relations with In-Laws in the Context of the Social Convoy: Theoretical and Practical Implications

Intergenerational relations among in-laws are involuntary ties emerging as a consequence of marriage. As such, these relations provide a window through which the dynamics involved in restructuring social networks following life transitions may be observed. A questionnaire, based on the social convoy model, was given to an ethnically diverse sample of adults with living in-laws (N = 170), married 2–15 years. About half of the respondents included in-laws in a concentric circle network diagram of persons close and important to them. The strongest unique predictors of convoy placement for the mother-in-law were support, frequency of contact, relationship quality, and length of marriage, and for the father-in-law were support, relationship quality, and value similarity. This study sheds light on the dynamics of an intergenerational relationship that has been largely ignored in the literature, laying the groundwork for conceptualizing ways to foster positive in-law relationships as a necessary tool in managing the care of the growing numbers of elderly in the new millennium.     

The impact of ethnicity on attitudes toward health care reform in New Mexico

Latinos tend to have significantly lower levels of access to general and top quality medical care than do non-Latino whites, and although disparities in access to health care have diminished for all other minority groups over time, they have widened for Latinos. Given these trends, current attempts to provide universal health care at both the national and state levels across the United States have large implications for the health status of Latinos. The objective of this analysis is to determine whether Latinos have different attitudes regarding health reform than non-Latino whites. Our data are from a statewide random digit dialing telephone survey of New Mexico residents, age 18 and older, conducted in the Fall of 2007. With a Latino population of 44% and ongoing health care reform efforts by the state legislature, New Mexico is an ideal location for this analysis. After controlling for a host of individual level factors, our findings suggest that while Latinos are less likely to identify health care as a salient state issue relative to the economy and crime, they are more likely than non-Latino whites to believe affordable health care programs are important. Finally, Latinos view employers, more than government or individuals, to be responsible for expanding health care coverage.     

Multiobjective Prioritization Methodology and Decision Support System for Evaluating Inventory Enhancement Strategies for Disrupted Interdependent Sectors

Disruptions in the production of commodities and services resulting from disasters influence the vital functions of infrastructure and economic sectors within a region. The interdependencies inherent among these sectors trigger the faster propagation of disaster consequences that are often associated with a wider range of inoperability and amplified losses. This article evaluates the impact of inventory‐enhanced policies for disrupted interdependent sectors to improve the disaster preparedness capability of dynamic inoperability input‐output models (DIIM). In this article, we develop the dynamic cross‐prioritization plot (DCPP)—a prioritization methodology capable of identifying and dynamically updating the critical sectors based on preference assignments to different objectives. The DCPP integrates the risk assessment metrics (e.g., economic loss and inoperability), which are independently analyzed in the DIIM. We develop a computer‐based DCPP tool to determine the priority for inventory enhancement with user preference and resource availability as new dimensions. A baseline inventory case for the state of Virginia revealed a high concentration of (i) manufacturing sectors under the inoperability objective and (ii) service sectors under the economic loss objective. Simulation of enhanced inventory policies for selected critical manufacturing sectors has reduced the recovery period by approximately four days and the expected total economic loss by $33 million. Although the article focuses on enhancing inventory levels in manufacturing sectors, complementary analysis is recommended to manage the resilience of the service sectors. The flexibility of the proposed DCPP as a decision support tool can also be extended to accommodate analysis in other regions and disaster scenarios.