“How Exposed Is Exposed Enough?” Lay Inferences About Chemical Exposure

The concept of exposure is central to chemical risk assessment and plays an important role in communicating to the public about the potential health risks of chemicals. Research on chemical risk perception has found some indication that the model lay people use to judge chemical exposure differs from that of toxicologists, thereby leading to different conclusions about chemical safety. This paper presents the results of a series of studies directed toward developing a model for understanding how lay people interpret the concept of chemical exposure. The results indicate that people's beliefs about chemical exposure (and its risks) are based on two broad categories of inferences. One category of inferences relates to the nature in which contact with a chemical has taken place, including the amount of a chemical involved and its potential health consequences. A second category of inferences about chemical exposure relates to the pragmatics of language interpretation, leading to beliefs about the motives and purposes behind chemical risk communication. Risk communicators are encouraged to consider how alternative models of exposure and language interpretation can lead to conflicting conclusions on the part of the public about chemical safety.     

Physician career management: organizational strategies for the 21st century.

Burnout is a state of physical, emotional, and mental exhaustion caused by long-term involvement in situations that are emotionally demanding. It is not stress, per se, that causes burnout, as many thrive in stressful, demanding careers. Rather, burnout results when stress continuously outweighs the sense of effectiveness, accomplishment, and reward. And, this fate is sealed when one feels helpless to effect significant change in the conditions that fuel the stress. Establishing an organizational environment that reduces the risk of physician burnout requires a new commitment of resources, one that can be challenging to justify to decision-makers with a strictly short-term, bottom line orientation. The key issues to consider in shaping a physician career management program include: (1) entry of new physician employees into the organization; (2) productivity measures; (3) responsiveness to safety concerns; (4) administrative and policy issues; and (5) variety and growth opportunities.     

Community councils as a medium for public participation: a case study in Grampian region

Planning authorities in Scotland are obliged to consult the public before finalising policies and proposals to be included in their development plans. Community councils are intended to operate as ‘the voice of a neighbourhood’ and this paper analyses an attempt by a regional planning authority to use community councils as a vehicle for consulting the public in the preparation of a structure plan for a rural area. The paper concludes that the attempt was unsuccessful because the community councils were not clear about the role they were expected to play; nor were they adequately prepared for their role. The authors believe, however, that the involvement of community councils has potential for promoting greater public participation in the preparation of development plans.     

Using the EM-algorithm for survival data with incomplete categorical covariates

Incomplete covariate data is a common occurrence in many studies in which the outcome is survival time. With generalized linear models, when the missing covariates are categorical, a useful technique for obtaining parameter estimates is the EM by the method of weights proposed in Ibrahim (1990). In this article, we extend the EM by the method of weights to survival outcomes whose distributions may not fall in the class of generalized linear models. This method requires the estimation of the parameters of the distribution of the covariates. We present a clinical trials example with five covariates, four of which have some missing values.     

Modelling the management of underground water assets

Central to the activities of any industry is the modernization of its assets. This paper describes the application of statistical methods to the asset management plan of a large water company. A model for the underground assets is given in detail, and the extensive computations required are illustrated. A Bayesian model shows the consequences of various policy options and provides realistic measures of the uncertainty connected with them.     

The Association of Survey Setting and Mode with Self-Reported Health Risk Behaviors among High School Students

This study examined whether the prevalence of self-reportedhealth risk behaviors among high school students varied by surveysetting (school versus home) and mode of administration (paperand pencil versus computer). Students in grades 9 and 11 wereassigned randomly to one of four conditions—school paper-and-pencilinstrument (PAPI), school computer-assisted self-interview (CASI),home PAPI, and home CASI. During the spring of 2004, 4,506 studentscompleted identically worded questionnaires based on the YouthRisk Behavior Survey questionnaire. Logistic regression analysescontrolling for sex, grade, and race/ethnicity revealed thatsetting was associated significantly with the reporting of 30of the 55 risk behaviors examined, and mode was associated significantlywith the reporting of 7 of the 55 behaviors. For all behaviorswith a significant setting main effect, the odds of reportingthe behavior were greater among students who completed questionnairesat school than among students who completed questionnaires athome. For all behaviors with a significant mode main effect,PAPI mode students had lower odds of reporting the behaviorthan CASI mode students. Because social measurement researchassumes that higher prevalence estimates are more valid thanlower estimates, methodological factors shown to increase estimates,such as setting and mode, should be considered when planningsurveys.     

Laplace-normal mixtures fitted to wind shear data

A mixture model with Laplace and normal components is fitted to wind shear data available in grouped form. A set of equations is presented for iteratively estimating the parameters of the model using an application of the EM algorithm. Twenty-four sets of data are examined with this technique, and the model is found to give a good fit to the data. Some hypotheses about the parameters in the model are discussed in light of the estimates obtained.     

Integrated marked Poisson processes with application to image correlation spectroscopy

Image correlation spectroscopy (ICS) is an experimental technique used in the study of cell tissue, specifically to obtain information about protein aggregates. This paper discusses a filtered Poisson process model of ICS, and uses this to obtain the sampling distribution of an estimator of interest, using spectral methods. Integrals of third- and fourth-order spectra are involved, and methods proposed in the literature are studied numerically. They are found to be infeasible methods, requiring months of computing time. An alternative method is proposed and is illustrated on some actual ICS experiments. A novel feature in this study is the use of a SIMD-class parallel computer, a MasPar MP-2 machine, to obtain some statistical properties of the estimation method.