Migration and retirement in the life course: an event history approach

Migration at older ages is commonly explained by reference to the search for greater amenity, and subsequently by the onset of greater dependency, but the links between mobility and specific life course transitions have rarely been articulated. We aim to establish the timing of migration in relation to retirement from the labour force, and to determine how its intensity varies around the retirement event. We also seek to identify how household and individual characteristics shape the propensity and timing of migration, differentiating moves according to distance and with particular attention to the characteristics of the spouse. Data are drawn from the first six waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, a nationally representative panel study covering the period 2001–2006. Migration events are identified relative to retirement and event history methods are employed to establish the characteristics predisposing households to relocate around retirement. Results demonstrate that retirement acts as a trigger to migration but the propensity to move falls as retirement age rises and the hazard is increasingly concentrated in the year retirement occurs. Within this framework the presence, health, education and retirement status of a spouse exert a significant influence on the likelihood of migration, though with different effects for long and short distance moves. Results highlight the importance of variations in underlying life-course trajectories in shaping retirement migration and demonstrate that only a minority of moves at ages 55–69 are directly associated with retirement, underlining the need for caution when identifying retirement migration using age as a proxy measure.     

School as haven: Transforming school environments into welcoming learning communities

This study investigated school factors that impact attendance. Interviews and focus groups with over 60 key stakeholders from five Maryland counties were conducted. Respondents indicated that despite individual, family, and community factors that contribute to non-attendance, students will attend a school that is intentional about creating a welcoming climate that is supportive and academically stimulating. Attendance can be improved when schools evaluated policies that may unintentionally deter student attendance, when students feel heard by school personnel, and when students are given opportunities to establish supportive relationships with caring adults in and out of the classroom.     

The origins and early diffusion of “shareholder value” in the United States

The shareholder value conception of the firm and its consequences for the functioning of corporations have been studied from a variety of disciplinary and theoretical perspectives. In this article we examine in more detail than has been done sofar the origins and early adoption of this particular conception. By investigating public business sources from the perspective of field theory, we argue that the rise and early diffusion of “shareholder value” are best understood as a function of the changing power relations in the economic field during the first half of the 1980s. The deep economic recession at the end of the 1970s and early 1980s led to a crisis in the prevailing management beliefs, offering newcomers the opportunity to promote alternative business strategies, among which the shareholder value conception became dominant. The sources studied indicate that the spokespersons of the new business conception were initially wealthy outsiders, corporate “raiders,” who used the economic crisis to oppose management and acquire shares in undervalued firms with the threat of restructuring and selling parts of them in the name of shareholders’ interests. Although these hostile take-overs, or threats of take-overs, were widely contested, the Reagan administration blocked regulation and stimulated the take-over market. The rivalry between “raiders” and public pension funds over the profits of these takeovers led to the founding the Council of Institutional Investors (1985), which adopted the shareholder value doctrine inaugurating the organized activism of public pension funds with regard to the management of firms. It was thus in all likelihood the competition and conflict among different groups of shareholders, primarily corporate raiders and pension funds, that triggered the shift in the balance of power between managers and shareholders. Since managers found profitable ways to adapt to the new balance of power, the shareholder value ideology spread rapidly through the economic field, becoming the dominant business model of North American firms in the second half of the 1980s.     

Multiple-bias modelling for analysis of observational data

Summary.  Conventional analytic results do not reflect any source of uncertainty other than random error, and as a result readers must rely on informal judgments regarding the effect of possible biases. When standard errors are small these judgments often fail to capture sources of uncertainty and their interactions adequately. Multiple-bias models provide alternatives that allow one systematically to integrate major sources of uncertainty, and thus to provide better input to research planning and policy analysis. Typically, the bias parameters in the model are not identified by the analysis data and so the results depend completely on priors for those parameters. A Bayesian analysis is then natural, but several alternatives based on sensitivity analysis have appeared in the risk assessment and epidemiologic literature. Under some circumstances these methods approximate a Bayesian analysis and can be modified to do so even better. These points are illustrated with a pooled analysis of case–control studies of residential magnetic field exposure and childhood leukaemia, which highlights the diminishing value of conventional studies conducted after the early 1990s. It is argued that multiple-bias modelling should become part of the core training of anyone who will be entrusted with the analysis of observational data, and should become standard procedure when random error is not the only important source of uncertainty (as in meta-analysis and pooled analysis).     

Reducing Bias and Mean Squared Error Associated With Regression-Based Odds Ratio Estimators

Ratio estimators of effect are ordinarily obtained by exponentiating maximum-likelihood estimators (MLEs) of log-linear or logistic regression coefficients. These estimators can display marked positive finite-sample bias, however. We propose a simple correction that removes a substantial portion of the bias due to exponentiation. By combining this correction with bias correction on the log scale, we demonstrate that one achieves complete removal of second-order bias in odds ratio estimators in important special cases. We show how this approach extends to address bias in odds or risk ratio estimators in many common regression settings. We also propose a class of estimators that provide reduced mean bias and squared error, while allowing the investigator to control the risk of underestimating the true ratio parameter. We present simulation studies in which the proposed estimators are shown to exhibit considerable reduction in bias, variance, and mean squared error compared to MLEs. Bootstrapping provides further improvement, including narrower confidence intervals without sacrificing coverage.     

Editorial Collaborators

Abstract

The present note explores sources of misplaced criticisms of P-values, such as conflicting definitions of “significance levels” and “P-values” in authoritative sources, and the consequent misinterpretation of P-values as error probabilities. It then discusses several properties of P-values that have been presented as fatal flaws: That P-values exhibit extreme variation across samples (and thus are “unreliable”), confound effect size with sample size, are sensitive to sample size, and depend on investigator sampling intentions. These properties are often criticized from a likelihood or Bayesian framework, yet they are exactly the properties P-values should exhibit when they are constructed and interpreted correctly within their originating framework. Other common criticisms are that P-values force users to focus on irrelevant hypotheses and overstate evidence against those hypotheses. These problems are not however properties of P-values but are faults of researchers who focus on null hypotheses and overstate evidence based on misperceptions that p?=?0.05 represents enough evidence to reject hypotheses. Those problems are easily seen without use of Bayesian concepts by translating the observed P-value p into the Shannon information (S-value or surprisal) –log₂(p).     

Pathological Gambling: Influence of Quality of Life and Psychological Distress on Abstinence After Cognitive-Behavioral Inpatient Treatment

The aim of this study is to understand the influence of psychological distress and quality of life on the maintenance of therapy success during a 1 year follow-up in pathological gamblers after inpatient cognitive-behavioral treatment. In a sample of 281 pathological gamblers (247 men, 34 women) the following measures were taken: psychological distress (beginning and end of treatment, and follow up), quality of life and abstinence from gambling. The results showed that relapsed pathological gamblers suffer of higher psychological distress at discharge and of lower quality of life during follow-up than abstinent gamblers. In a mediator analysis the causal relations between the three variables could be clarified: psychological distress has an impact on abstinence during follow-up, and quality of life can be considered a mediator variable for the relation between psychological distress and abstinence from pathological gambling.     

Conformity to implicit social pressure: the role of political identity

Although studies have shown that implicit social cues, such as images of watchful eyes, can elicit prosocial behavior, little research to date has examined individual differences in people’s susceptibility to such subtle social cues. For example, individuals with a conservative ideology typically value social conformity, obedience, and adherence to social norms more than liberals. To examine partisan heterogeneity, we analyze data from two large randomized field experiments on voting behavior. Results suggest that the impact of eyespots on voter mobilization is indeed likely driven by political identity, with a significant effect for Republicans but not Independents or Democrats. These findings are consistent with an emerging line of research revealing individual differences in how susceptible humans are to implicit social cues.