Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

Separate Spheres or Increasing Equality? Changing Gender Beliefs in Postwar Japan

This research investigates change in gender beliefs in Japan during a period of economic hard times in the late 1990s. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme on the Japanese population from 1994 (n = 1,054) and 2002 (n = 872), we examined how cohort replacement and intracohort change contributed to changes in gender beliefs. We found important differences from the patterns of change reported for many Western countries, namely, a decoupling between societal trends in the female labor force participation rate and beliefs about gender. Such differences may be attributable to factors such as the high societal valuation of the housewife role compared to that in other postindustrial countries and sanctions against full‐time employment for women in Japan.     

Decision Making in a Standby Service System*

A standby service option allows a firm to lower its risk of not having sufficient capacity to satisfy demand without investing in additional capacity. Standby service options currently exist in the natural gas, electric, and water utility industries. Firms seeking standby service are typically large industrial or institutional organizations that, due to unexpectedly high demand or interruptions in their own supply system, look to a public utility to supplement their requirements. Typically, the firm pays the utility a reservation fee based on a nominated volume and a consumption charge based on the volume actually taken. In this paper, a single‐period model is developed and optimized with respect to the amount of standby capacity a firm should reserve. Expressions for the mean and variance of the supplier's aggregate standby demand distribution are developed. A procedure for computing the level of capacity needed to safely meet its standby obligations is presented. Numerical results suggest that the standby supplier can safely meet its standby demand with a capacity that is generally between 20 to 50% of the aggregate nominated volume.     

Immigrant quality and assimilation: a review of the U.S. literature

Empirical research on US immigrants is reviewed: their productivity and assimilation; their contribution and use of public services; and their impact on native Americans. I discuss the characteristics of cohorts of immigrants that enter the United States at different times, and then quantify the assimilation of immigrants, typically in terms of economic productivity of immigrants compared with natives. Few have found quantifiable negative effects of immigrants on native wages or unemployment in local labor markets, but a more general equilibrium approach than has been empirically implemented may be needed to draw any conclusions regarding the distributional consequences of immigration. Received: 22 September 1995 / Accepted: 2 March 1997     

Is the medium the message? Perceptions of and reactions to crisis communication via twitter, blogs and traditional media

Value changes and the rapid emergence of media innovations (internet, social web) in society lead to an institutionalization of crisis communication, in which especially new media play a crucial role. The key contributions of the paper include deepening and refocusing the theoretical foundations of crisis communication by experimentally analyzing the effects of traditional and social-media strategies on the recipients’ perceptions of reputation; and by analyzing the effects or crisis responses on the recipients’ secondary crisis communications (e.g., sharing information and leaving a message) and reactions (e.g., willingness to boycott). The results indicated that the medium matters more than the message. For all three dependent measures - reputation, secondary crisis communication and reactions - main effects of medium occurred, whereas the message had only a significant main effect on secondary crisis reactions.     

The application of microcomputers in production management

The findings reported result from a questionnaire survey, and a number of company interviews. Further questions which need to be answered are identified, and a research project to provide these answers is outlined.     

The courageous follower

With the recent changes in the delivery of medical care in the United States, physicians are being thrust into new and unsettling roles. Many are finding themselves for the first time in the role of the follower, subject to myriad types of leadership. Leaders frequently complain that leading physicians is like "herding cats." What are the characteristics of followers? Do physicians make good followers? This article examines the role of the "cats"--what is effective followership, why physicians may fall short in followership skills, and how physicians might become better "followers."     

Characterization of Historical Methane Occurrence Frequencies from U.S. Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities with Implications for Risk Management,Operations, and Regulatory Policy

Defining a baseline for the frequency of occurrences at underground natural gas storage facilities is critical to maintaining safe operation and to the development of appropriate risk management plans and regulatory approaches. Currently used frequency-estimation methods are reviewed and broadened in this article to include critical factors of cause, severity, and uncertainty that contribute to risk. A Bayesian probabilistic analysis characterizes the aleatoric historical occurrence frequencies given imperfect sampling. Frequencies for the three main storage facility types in the United States (depleted oil-and-gas field storage, aquifer storage, solution-mined salt cavern storage) are generally on the order of 3 to 9 × 10^–2 occurrences, of all causes (surface, well integrity, subsurface integrity) and severities (nuisance, serious, catastrophic), per facility-year. Loss of well integrity is associated with many, but not all, occurrences either within the subsurface or from there up to the surface. The probability of one serious or catastrophic leakage occurrence to the ground surface within the next 10 years, assuming constant number of facilities, is approximately 0.1–0.3% for any facility type. Storage operators and industry regulators can use occurrence frequencies, their associated probabilities and uncertainties, and forecasts of severity magnitudes to better prioritize resources, establish a baseline against which progress toward achieving a reduction target could be measured, and develop more effective mitigation/monitoring/reduction programs in a risk management plan.     

Soft cultures: the symbolism of cross-border organizing 1

It is not always true that the concept of culture implies a convergence on one meaning, one set of values, one pattern of behaviour. This paper develops the notion of soft culture. Cultures are soft in the sense that multiple renderings of reality are accepted and legitimized. Soft culture is studied in the context of cross-national technology development projects. Such projects are loosely structured communities, as organizational actors are separated in time and space. The paper demonstrates how symbols work among those actors. In addition to the traditional uses of symbolic categorizing, in soft culture the symbols also play an important role in attracting more networks to the action and licensing a wide variety of exploratory activities. These equivocal characteristics of symbols should be considered a strength in face of overwhelming uncertainty since they allow actors to construct multiple futures and pursue them.     

Children's Anger Attribution Bias: Relations to Family Environment and Social Adjustment

We examined the relations of caregiver depression and family instability to preschool children's anger attribution bias and emotion attribution accuracy on a test of emotion situation knowledge. After controlling for age, gender, and verbal ability, caregiver depression and family instability predicted children's anger attribution bias but not the overall accuracy of their emotion attributions. We also divided children into groups low and high on teacher reports of aggression and groups low and high on teacher reports of peer rejection and examined the anger attribution bias of these groups. For boys but not girls, greater anger attribution bias predicted higher levels of aggression. For all children, greater anger attribution bias predicted higher levels of peer rejection. Results suggest that the misattribution of anger to others may be an important component of some children's early emotional and social difficulties.