An intuitive risk factors search algorithm: usage of the Bayesian network technique in personalized medicine

The article focuses on the application of the Bayesian networks (BN) technique to problems of personalized medicine. The simple (intuitive) algorithm of BN optimization with respect to the number of nodes using naive network topology is developed. This algorithm allows to increase the BN prediction quality and to identify the most important variables of the network. The parallel program implementing the algorithm has demonstrated good scalability with an increase in the computational cores number, and it can be applied to the large patients database containing thousands of variables. This program is applied for the prediction for the unfavorable outcome of coronary artery disease (CAD) for patients who survived the acute coronary syndrome (ACS). As a result, the quality of the predictions of the investigated networks was significantly improved and the most important risk factors were detected. The significance of the tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene polymorphism for the prediction of the unfavorable outcome of CAD for patients survived after ACS was revealed for the first time.     

AFFECTIVE RESPONSES WITHIN A COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING TASK: THE INFLUENCE OF “PERCEPTUALLY” ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS

The perceptual effects of varying levels of expert advice for potentially improving on strategic decisions were examined in conjunction with goals. The amounts of advice about decision alternatives, as well as assigned goals ranging from “nearly impossible” to “easy,” were manipulated. The task used was complex and functioned perceptually as an “ill-structured” problem. Mixed results indicated that more advice significantly affected satisfaction but advice in general had little influence on effort. On the other hand, as goal difficulty decreased, satisfaction and effort significantly increased. Easy goals were superior to more difficult ones within this perceptually ill-structured decision-making situation.     

Nest predators,but not nest survival,differ between adjacent urban habitats

Growing human populations make it imperative for ecologists to identify strategies to conserve biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes, such as cities. Effects of urbanization on birds are particularly well-studied, but questions remain regarding the best conservation approaches. Debate about the relative utility of focusing conservation efforts on nature reserves versus developed lands has focused largely on comparing species abundance or presence, with few studies addressing underlying behavioral or demographic mechanisms. Here we evaluated differences in avian reproductive success in nature reserves and matrix habitats to test the assumption that nest predation is lower within areas protected from development. Specifically, we investigated 1) whether nest survival differed in replicated pairs of forest parks and residential neighborhoods and 2) whether differences in nest survival were associated with changes in which species most frequently depredated nests. From April–August 2007–2014, we monitored nests of two native birds, American robin (Turdus migratorius) and northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), and video-documented nest predators in paired forest-matrix habitats in the Columbus, Ohio metropolitan area. We found similar rates of nest survival in the two habitats for both robins (Χ²₁?=?0.715, p?=?0.398, n?=?741 nests) and cardinals (Χ²₁?=?0.926, p?=?0.336, n?=?1156 nests), but interactions between predators and prey differed. In particular, domestic cats (Felis catus) were over five times as likely to depredate cardinal nests in matrix habitats versus forest parks (Χ²₁?=?7.24, simulated p?=?0.010; n_forest?=?3, n_matrix?=?7). Our results suggest that at least in some circumstances, nest success of native birds may be equivalent between nature reserves and adjacent residential matrix habitats, and thus residential neighborhoods may contribute positively to bird conservation in urban landscapes.     

What shapes plant and animal diversity on urban golf courses?

Recent concern over increasing loss of biodiversity has prompted considerable interest in the role of urban green spaces as reservoirs of local biodiversity. This study assessed the diversity of three indicator taxa - plants, ants and birds - on golf courses spanning a wide range of environmental variation in terms of climate, elevation, course age, size and connectivity to native woodland. Species richness and community composition was further compared between contrasting on-course habitat types that reflect different management intensities. We identified a set of taxon-specific environmental correlates indicating an intricate interplay of landscape- and local-scale variables that affect local species diversity. Our results show that floristic diversity is positively associated with the amount of rainfall, whereas ant and bird diversity are related to local-scale factors, particularly the number of trees and the size of water features on a site. The amount of on-course native habitat was a strong predictor of plant and ant diversity and was also associated with the number of unique species at the site level; this reinforces the value of remnant habitat patches as local biodiversity reservoirs that represent mini hot-spots in an otherwise species-poor urban landscape. Community composition for all three taxa differed markedly between non-playing and playing areas, with boundary and remnant habitats generally having more diverse, species-rich communities. Our results suggest that local floral and faunal biodiversity on urban golf courses can be enhanced by creating woody non-playing areas and, especially, by preserving, restoring or expanding remnant habitats.     

Determining species specific nightly bat activity in sites with varying urban intensity

Time of peak bat activity during the night differs among bat species due to temperature, prey availability, habitat availability, and/or interactions between species. Habitat availability is altered in urban areas, which may affect insect prey availability and interspecies interactions. Our objectives were to use mobile acoustic monitoring to determine when bat species were active in a single night in urban and nonurban sites and if nightly bat activity patterns differed in urban versus nonurban sites. Bat echolocation call sequences were recorded using Anabat acoustic detectors while driving transects through the night at five sites (three “urban” and two “nonurban”) located in the Piedmont region of north-central North Carolina from May through August 2016. Transects were driven three times per night starting 45 min, 180 min, and 300 min after sunset. Recorded echolocation call sequences were analyzed manually using AnalookW and automatically using Bat Call Identification and Echoclass software. Total bat activity was not different between urban and nonurban sites. However, total bat activity was lower later in the night in urban sites, but stayed the same in nonurban sites. Species specifically, there were more Eptesicus fuscus, Lasionycteris noctivagans, and Tadarida brasiliensis call sequences and fewer Lasiurus borealis, Nycticeius humeralis, and Perimyotis subflavus call sequences in urban sites than nonurban sites. There were also fewer E. fuscus, L. noctivagans, and N. humeralis call sequences later in the night in both urban and nonurban sites. Only Lasiurus borealis activity in urban sites later in the night reduced and L. borealis activity in nonurban sites remained at the same. These results suggest that bats in urban areas partition time differently, which is important to consider for urban conservation efforts and planning.     

Landscape urbanization threatens plant phylogenetic diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Urbanization causes species loss around the world, but its effects on phylogenetic diversity are poorly known in tropical forests. Using a patch-landscape approach in an urbanizing region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we tested whether the increase in landscape urbanization reduces plant species density, phylogenetic richness and divergence, and increases the relatedness among co-occurring individuals and species. We assessed plant responses to urbanization in adult (diameter at breast height?>?10 cm) and sapling communities (2.5–10 cm diameter) separately, as saplings are proxies of the future flora. We sampled 2860 woody plants belonging to 155 species in nine circular landscapes with urbanization level varying from 0% to 45%, and estimated the relatedness among the species that have increased and decreased in relative abundance in more urbanized landscapes (winner and losers, respectively). As expected, species density and phylogenetic richness decreased with the increase in urbanization. These responses were consistent for adult and sapling communities, suggesting a persistent loss of species and lineages in more urbanized landscapes. Contrary to our expectations, phylogenetic divergence and structure did not respond to urbanization, indicating that the more urbanized landscapes still retain much evolutionary history. However, because the relatedness among winners was greater than among losers, it is likely that the phylogenetic divergence gradually reduces and the relatedness increases, resulting in impoverished forests with uncertain ability to provide ecosystem services such as carbon storage and pest control. This environmental cost should be taken into account to align urban sprawl with biodiversity conservation.     

Exploring the Ebbs and Flows of Community Engagement: The Pyramid of Engagement and Water Activism in Two Canadian Communities

In this article, we share results from a comparative study exploring the dynamics of community engagement surrounding local water advocacy organizations in two Canadian communities. Although emergent local issues and the perception of crisis triggered some short-term community engagement, social factors such as collective identity, a sense of community, and sense of efficacy appear to be more important for sustaining and deepening engagement. Drawing on the results, we show how the pyramid of engagement, by depicting activist engagement as a multilevel, developmental process, can serve as a useful tool for community engagement scholars and practitioners alike.