Hybrid Processing of Stochastic and Subjective Uncertainty Data

Uncertainty analyses typically recognize separate stochastic and subjective sources of uncertainty, but do not systematically combine the two, although a large amount of data used in analyses is partly stochastic and partly subjective. We have developed methodology for mathematically combining stochastic and subjective sources of data uncertainty, based on new "hybrid number" approaches. The methodology can be utilized in conjunction with various traditional techniques, such as PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) and risk analysis decision support. Hybrid numbers have been previously examined as a potential method to represent combinations of stochastic and subjective information, but mathematical processing has been impeded by the requirements inherent in the structure of the numbers, e.g., there was no known way to multiply hybrids. In this paper, we will demonstrate methods for calculating with hybrid numbers that avoid the difficulties. By formulating a hybrid number as a probability distribution that is only fuzzily known, or alternatively as a random distribution of fuzzy numbers, methods are demonstrated for the full suite of arithmetic operations, permitting complex mathematical calculations. It will be shown how information about relative subjectivity (the ratio of subjective to stochastic knowledge about a particular datum) can be incorporated. Techniques are also developed for conveying uncertainty information visually, so that the stochastic and subjective components of the uncertainty, as well as the ratio of knowledge about the two, are readily apparent. The techniques demonstrated have the capability to process uncertainty information for independent, uncorrelated data, and for some types of dependent and correlated data. Example applications are suggested, illustrative problems are shown, and graphical results are given.     

Rehabilitation outlooks for rural Louisiana: educational developments,economic trends,and global perspectives

The objective of this article is to examine current medical, economic, and social trends affecting the provision of rehabilitation services for rural citizens with disabilities. While the population of interest is citizens of Louisiana, the concepts are applicable across all geographic boundaries. The article is a review of clinical practice, job placement alternatives, economic trends, and assessment of process applications. It is concluded numerous steps may be taken to enhance the availability and quality of services provided for rural citizens with disabilities: greater statistical inquiry into rural disability trends, increased incorporation of the Internet into all aspects of rural economic and educational developments, further development of distance learning, promotion of sensitivities towards rural cultures, and continued recruitment of rural allied and vocational rehabilitation professionals.     

Demographic and situational factors affecting injury, resistance, completion, and charges brought in sexual assault cases: what is best for arrest?

This study examines demographic and situational factors in an effort to predict whether or not a complainant was injured, used resistance, experienced a completed assault, and whether charges were brought against the offender. If the accused had consumed alcohol or drugs, he was almost seven times more likely to be arrested. The complainant was six times more likely to report rape completion if she had consumed alcohol or drugs and if the complainant fell unconscious at any time during the attack she was significantly less likely to use a resistance strategy. The complainant's use of a compliance strategy at any time during the assault positively predicted not using a physical resistance strategy and sexual assault completion. The reporting of injury positively predicted use a physical resistance strategy and sexual assault completion. If the assault was completed, it was less likely that charges were pressed. Implications of these findings are discussed, and directions for future research are offered.     

Exploiting proteomics in the discovery of drugs that target mitochondrial oxidative damage

To understand how oxidative stress contributes to aging and age-related diseases and to better evaluate the therapeutic effect of antioxidant drugs, it would be highly desirable to have a comprehensive and detailed readout of the types of oxidative damage that occur to proteins at a global or proteome level. In this Perspective, I examine how proteomics, defined here as the science of examining all proteins in an organelle, cell, or tissue in the context of biological phenomena, can be used to provide molecular details of mitochondrial protein oxidative damage. Specifically, I discuss approaches that combine knowledge of the mitochondrial proteome with newer mass spectrometry-based techniques that are capable of identifying proteins and sites of oxidative modification in a high-throughput manner.     

Vital connections

Scientists are currently exploring the structure and behavior of complex biological systems, which consist of networks of interacting entities. A recent paper in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences describes the distinctive characteristics of aging-related proteins in the yeast protein-protein interaction network. In this Perspective, I discuss the implications of these findings for longevity research.     

Contiguity of Probability Measures

The notion of contiguity of probability measures is a very useful one, providing a generally applicable method of calculating the asymptotic power of a sequence of tests and thus a means of comparing competing tests. This paper attempts to give an account of the basic results of contiguity theory which is self-contained and accessible to statisticians to whom the theory is of use. In addition, the relationship between contiguity and mutual contiguity is explored.     

THE THERAPEUTIC ALLIANCE IN HOME‐BASED FAMILY THERAPY: IS IT PREDICTIVE OF OUTCOME?

This study examined the association between the therapeutic alliance in family therapy and changes in symptom distress, interpersonal relationships, and family coping. The participants (N = 81) were members of low socioeconomic status families referred to a university clinic for in-home family therapy. Participants completed the Outcome Questionnaire, Family Crisis Oriented Personal Evaluation, and the Family Therapy Alliance questionnaires. Regression analyses revealed that the therapeutic alliance explained 19% of the variance in symptom distress changes for mother, 55% for fathers, and 39% for adolescents. The implications of these findings for practicing and researching family therapy are presented.     

Prevalence and correlates of alcohol-induced blackouts among college students: results of an e-mail survey

The authors conducted an e-mail survey of 772 college students to learn more about their experiences with blackouts. Approximately half (51%) of those who had ever consumed alcohol reported they had experienced a blackout at some point in their lives, and 40% had experienced 1 in the year before the survey. Among those who drank in the 2 weeks before the survey, nearly 1 in 10 (9.4%) had experienced a blackout during that period. Many later learned that, during the blackout, they had vandalized property, driven an automobile, had sexual intercourse, or engaged in other risky behaviors. Experiencing 3 or more blackouts was associated with a variety of other experiences, including heavier drinking, lower grades, an earlier age of drinking onset, and having others express concerns about their drinking. The female students who reported blackouts during the 2 weeks before the survey drank far less than male students did during this time period, supporting the use of gender-specific definitions of risky drinking.     

Mitigating the tithonus error: genetic analysis of mortality phenotypes

Summarizing an organism's age at death in terms of the mean or maximum life-span is the most popular way to describe genetic effects on aging. In this Perspective, the author describes a new study with the fly Drosophila melanogaster, in which another type of measure is also used: the age-dependent risk of death, or age-specific mortality. Changes in age-specific mortality reflect the underlying physiological deterioration of an organism as it ages. Thus, the author argues that these changes provide a phenotype that is ideal for the genetic analysis of aging.     

Gaydar: visual detection of sexual orientation among gay and straight men

Currently, American gay people believe they have a unique ability to pick each other out in a crowd (often termed "gaydar" ["gay" + "radar"]). This was established through a nationwide Internet-mediated survey (n = 460). To test for the presence of this ability in gay men, the researcher asked self-identified gay and straight male participants to view a series of unfamiliar men on videotape and determine the sexual orientation of each. The higher overall accuracy of gay men demonstrated a trend level difference from their straight cohorts although falling short (primarily due to small sample size) of the p < 0.05 level. A theory for the emergence of this skill (termed "Adaptive Gaydar" by the author) as a unique perceptual ability/coping mechanism uinique among gay people is also presented.