Using scenarios to develop strategies

Scenarios were not used for strategic decision-making until some time after their introduction. Structured approaches which fully use scenarios for strategy development have only emerged in the last few years. This paper describes such an approach as practised in Shell Nederland and focuses on the business environment with reference to the norms and values. A second paper dealing with the values in more details will appear in the next issue.     

Optimal Bayesian Randomization

Randomization is a puzzle for Bayesians. The intuitive need for randomization is clear, but there is a standard result that Bayesians need not randomize. In this paper we propose a model in which randomization is a strictly optimal procedure. The most important aspect of our model is that there are several parties who make different decisions and observe different data. The result also sheds light on the ethical considerations involving randomization in a clinical trial.     

Spatially varying dynamic coefficient models

In this work we present a flexible class of linear models to treat observations made in discrete time and continuous space, where the regression coefficients vary smoothly in time and space. This kind of model is particularly appealing in situations where the effect of one or more explanatory processes on the response present substantial heterogeneity in both dimensions. We describe how to perform inference for this class of models and also how to perform forecasting in time and interpolation in space, using simulation techniques. The performance of the algorithm to estimate the parameters of the model and to perform prediction in time is investigated with simulated data sets. The proposed methodology is used to model pollution levels in the Northeast of the United States.     

Bayessche Indexmodelle in der Portfoliotheorie

An index model for determining efficient portfolios is considered. Subjective estimates by the investor concerning the future development are shown to be part of the decision process. The subjective assumptions refer to the parameters of the distribution of the index. A conjugate prior distribution is used to derive the moments of the index. Efficient portfolios depend on the subjective estimates by these moments.     

DIFFERENTIAL DEPOSIT GUARANTEES AND THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON BANK LENDING

This paper utilizes differences in de jure deposit insurance coverage across banks and changes in coverage over time to identify a bank‐lending channel in Poland. Banks with partial guarantees have a stronger loan response to monetary policy than banks with full guarantees. Furthermore, the weak response of the fully guaranteed banks is attributed to their ability to raise low‐reserve, uninsured time deposits relative to the partially covered banks. When differential coverage is eliminated, there is no disparity in the loan response between the two groups. This lending channel has implications for credit control and financial system development in emerging markets. (JEL E52, G21, G28)     

Politics,Plurality and Problemsheds: A Strategic Approach for Reform of Agricultural Water Resources Management

Starting from the assessment that past efforts at reform in agricultural water management in developing countries have achieved very little, this article argues that a fundamental change is required in the approach to policy and institutional transformation if the present deadlock in the internalisation of ecological sustainability, human development/poverty alleviation and democratic governance into the ‘core business’ of water bureaucracies is to be overcome. ‘Social engineering’ approaches need to be replaced by ‘strategic action’ approaches that acknowledge the inherently political character and the plurality of actors, institutions and objectives of water management — a perspective operationalised here around the notions of ‘problemshed’ and ‘issue network’.     

Children of sex rings

Children who have been sexually abused by a ring of adults present in a way that may confuse and mislead practitioners familiar only with single-offender sexual abuse. Understanding the similarities and differences between single- and multiple-offender sexual abuse is essential in determining the validity of a child's disclosure as well as in carrying out an appropriate treatment plan. Addressing the denial and resistance within the child welfare system in relation to child sexual exploitation by a ring is crucial to a practitioner's effectiveness. Finally, developing a therapeutic parent-child relationship is critical to the families who must live with their child's experience.     

How Resource Dependency Can Influence Social Resilience within a Primary Resource Industry*

Abstract Maintaining a healthy balance between human prosperity and environmental integrity is at the core of the principles of Ecological Sustainable Development. Resource‐protection policies are frequently implemented so as to regulate the balance between resource access and use, however, they can inadvertently compromise the ability of resource users to adapt and be resilient. Resource users who are especially dependent on a resource are more seriously compromised. But how do we define and measure resource dependency? And how do we assess its ability to influence social resilience? In this study, a conceptual model of resource dependency is developed in terms of: (i) occupational attachment, (ii) attachment to place, (iii) employability, (iv) family attitude to change, (v) business size, (vi) business approach, (vii) financial situation, (viii) level of specialisation, (ix) time spent harvesting, and (x) interest in and knowledge of the environment. The model of resource dependency and its effect on social resilience are (quantitatively and qualitatively) tested and explored using the commercial fishing industry in North Queensland, Australia. Results show that occupational attachment and employability were important influences as were business size and approach. Results can be used to identify vulnerability to institutional change and guide policy development processes.     

Postdivorce Father‐Adolescent Closeness

Research indicates that closeness of the father‐child bond following parental divorce is associated with better outcomes for children and adolescents. Unlike other investigations, this study takes a long‐term developmental approach to understanding stability and change in postdivorce father‐adolescent relationship closeness. Drawing on Add Health data (n = 483), we examine factors that explain (a) why some high‐quality father‐adolescent relationships remain the same after divorce whereas others decline, and (b) why some low‐quality relationships are stable following divorce whereas others improve. High mother‐offspring relationship quality and offspring feelings of well‐being prevented close father‐offspring relationships from deteriorating. Offspring’s childbearing and cohabitation following parental divorce increase closeness in father‐offspring relationships that were not close prior to divorce. Although a majority of offspring experienced a decline in closeness following divorce, results from this study show that some very close father‐offspring relationships are maintained and some poor relationships become closer.     

CALIBRATING MEASURES OF FAMILY ACTIVITIES BETWEEN LARGE- AND SMALL-SCALE DATA SETS

Two studies of working families are combined to demonstrate a strategy for producing reliable estimates from the combination of self-reported (large N) and observational (small N) data. Both studies examine where and how dual-career families spend time at home. The 500 Family Study is sociological and uses self-reported time diary data from a national sample; the CELF study is anthropological and uses observational scan sampling data from a regional sample of 32 families. The data are combined as if they constitute one sample, and an analytic solution for establishing the reliability of the resulting composite estimates of time use is provided. Merging the data sets provides validation for each study, neither of which is without potential methodological weaknesses. The advantages of combining data from the independent data collection methods are discussed, and selected substantive findings on families' activities are highlighted, illustrating similarities and differences between findings in the independent and combined data sets. Results show that working families spend significant time in a small spectrum of home spaces, particularly kitchens and living rooms, with leisure activities prevailing, but mothers, fathers, and children differ in where and how they spend their time. Overall, a template for merging data from different disciplines and methods is provided.