Moments of suprema of random variables

The supremum of random variables representing a sequence of rewards is of interest in establishing the existence of optimal stopping rules. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for existence of moments of sup_n(X_n ? c_n) and sup_n(S_n ? c_n) where X₁, X₂, … are i.i.d. random variables, S_n = X₁ + … + X_n, and c_n = (nL(n))^1/r, 0 < r < 2, L = 1, L = log, and L = log log. Following Cohn (1974), “rates of convergence” results are used in the proof.     

Identifying Latent Structures in Panel Data

This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized techniques. We consider both linear and nonlinear models where the regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are considered—penalized profile likelihood (PPL) estimation for the general nonlinear models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) estimation for linear models with endogeneity. In both cases, we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier‐Lasso (C‐Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group‐specific coefficients. C‐Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and consistent estimation in a single step and the classification exhibits the desirable property of uniform consistency. For PPL estimation, C‐Lasso also achieves the oracle property so that group‐specific parameter estimators are asymptotically equivalent to infeasible estimators that use individual group identity information. For PGMM estimation, the oracle property of C‐Lasso is preserved in some special cases. Simulations demonstrate good finite‐sample performance of the approach in both classification and estimation. Empirical applications to both linear and nonlinear models are presented.     

Differences by gender, ethnicity, and acculturation in the efficacy of the keepin' it REAL model prevention program

This study examined whether the efficacy of keepin' it REAL, a model program for substance use prevention in schools, was moderated by gender, ethnicity, and acculturation. Gender differences in program efficacy may arise through boys' higher risk of drug use, inadequate attention to girls' developmental issues, or cultural factors like polarized gender expectations. Data came from a randomized trial in 35 Phoenix, Arizona, middle schools involving 4,622 mostly Latino 7th graders. Using multi-level mixed models and multiple imputation missing techniques, results for the total sample showed no gender differences in program effects on recent substance use, but the program was more effective in fostering boys' than girls' anti-drug norms. Subgroup analyses demonstrated several more beneficial program effects for boys than girls (less alcohol and cigarette use and stronger anti-drug norms), but only among less acculturated Latinos. There were no gender differences in program effects among more acculturated Latinos, nor among non-Latino whites.     

Effects of a single-lesson tobacco prevention curriculum on knowledge, skill identification and smoking intention

One in five students report experimenting with tobacco before the age of 13 and most prevention efforts take place in the school setting. This study measures the effect of a single-lesson tobacco prevention curriculum, conducted by a health education center, focusing on knowledge of tobacco, ability to identify refusal techniques, and intent not to smoke. Data were collected, via electronic keypads, from students visiting a non-school, health education center in Michigan (n = 704 intervention and 85 comparison). Contingency table Chi-squared tests and t-tests demonstrated that a single lesson can improve general knowledge and ability to identify appropriate refusal techniques. Improvement in intent not to smoke was not significant because both groups had very high intent prior to implementation. Similar to results from other programs, multivariate logistic regression of gender, general knowledge, and skill identification revealed that only the skill variable was associated with intent not to smoke at pretest. Recommendations are given for further research and for designing more effective curricula or programs.     

The life-course origins of mastery among older people

In this article, we aim to identify the sources of mastery--the understanding that individuals hold about their ability to control the circumstances of their lives. The sample for our inquiry was drawn from the Medicare beneficiary files of people 65 and older living in Washington, DC, and two adjoining Maryland counties. We find that past circumstances, particularly those reflecting status attainment and early exposure to intractable hardships, converge with stressors experienced in late life to influence elders' level of mastery. The impact of past conditions, however, does not necessarily directly affect the current mastery of older people. Instead, the effect of prior experiences on current mastery is mediated by what we refer to as life-course mastery: one's belief that one has directed and managed the trajectories that connect one's past to the present. Our analyses show that life-course mastery largely serves as the mediating channel through which individuals connect their past to their present.     

Operationalizing environmental indicators for physical activity in older adults

This qualitative study describes environmental supports and barriers to physical activity in an older adult sample drawn from low- and high-walkable neighborhoods. Thirty-seven individuals age 55 and over were recruited and answered open-ended survey questions, with a subsample invited back to partake in a semistructured interview. Content analysis identified categories and themes linking perceptions of neighborhood-environment characteristics to activity. Emerging categories and themes did not differ across neighborhood walkability, so results are presented for both groups combined. Infrastructure was the most common category identified to encourage activity, specifically, well-maintained sidewalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic control. Other categories of land use, landscape, and aesthetics were reported. Poorly maintained or missing sidewalks, crosswalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic safety were categories that discouraged activity. In conclusion, the information obtained is helpful in solidifying which environmental characteristics are important to measure as they relate to activity behavior in an older adult population.     

The Unlived Life Is Worth Examining: Nothings and Nobodies behind the Scenes

This paper explores how people talk about the things that have not happened in their lives. I argue that we can perform reverse biographical identity work upon our unmade selves by exploring the meanings of unlived, non-experience. Challenging one's own rehearsed life story is an act of narrative self-transgression, involving negative responsibility assumption. Drawing on my symbolic interactionist theory of “nothing,” I consider how negative social phenomena (no-things, no-bodies, and non-events) are interactively accomplished and retrospectively made sense of in personal accounts. Themes of lost opportunities, silence, invisibility, and emptiness emerge from an analysis of twenty-seven stories. These tales reveal a mixture of emotions: not only sadness, stigma, shame, and regret, but also relief, pride, acceptance, and gratitude. Narratives of nothing are often ambivalent in tone, reflecting the complexity of storied life behind the scenes.     

SODA WARS: THE EFFECT OF A SODA TAX ELECTION ON UNIVERSITY BEVERAGE SALES

We examine how soda sales changed due to the campaign attention and election outcome of a local excise tax on sugar‐sweetened beverages. Using panel data of beverage sales from university retailers in Berkeley, California, we estimate that soda purchases relative to control beverages significantly dropped immediately after the election, months before the tax was implemented in the city of Berkeley or on campus. Supplemental scanner data from off‐campus retailers reveal this result is not unique to the university setting. Our findings suggest soda tax media coverage and election outcomes can have larger effects on purchasing behavior than the tax itself. (JEL D12, H20, C23, I38, Q18)