A Stochastic Assessment of the Public Health Risks of the Use of Macrolide Antibiotics in Food Animals

Campylobacteriosis is an important food-borne illness with more than a million U.S. cases annually. Antibiotic treatment is usually not required. However, erythromycin, a macrolide antibiotic, is recommended for the treatment of severe cases. Therefore, it is considered a critically important antibiotic and given special attention as to the risk that food animal use will lead to resistant infections and compromised human treatment. To assess this risk, we used a retrospective approach; estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases caused by specific meat consumption utilizing the preventable fraction. We then determined the number of cases with macrolide resistance Campylobacter spp. based on a linear model relating the resistance fraction to on-farm macrolide use. In this article, we considered the uncertainties in the parameter estimates, utilized a more elaborate model of resistance development and separated C. coli and C. jejuni . There are no published data for the probability of compromised treatment outcome due to macrolide resistance. Therefore, our estimates of compromised treatment outcome were based on data for fluoroquinolone-resistant infections. The conservative results show the human health risks are extremely low. For example, the predicted risk of suboptimal human treatment of infection with C. coli from swine is only 1 in 82 million; with a 95% chance it could be as high as 1 in 49 million. Risks from C. jejuni in poultry or beef are even less. Reduced antibiotic use can adversely impact animal health. These low human risks should be weighed against the alternative risks.     

Optimal Bayesian Randomization

Randomization is a puzzle for Bayesians. The intuitive need for randomization is clear, but there is a standard result that Bayesians need not randomize. In this paper we propose a model in which randomization is a strictly optimal procedure. The most important aspect of our model is that there are several parties who make different decisions and observe different data. The result also sheds light on the ethical considerations involving randomization in a clinical trial.     

Postdivorce Father‐Adolescent Closeness

Research indicates that closeness of the father‐child bond following parental divorce is associated with better outcomes for children and adolescents. Unlike other investigations, this study takes a long‐term developmental approach to understanding stability and change in postdivorce father‐adolescent relationship closeness. Drawing on Add Health data (n = 483), we examine factors that explain (a) why some high‐quality father‐adolescent relationships remain the same after divorce whereas others decline, and (b) why some low‐quality relationships are stable following divorce whereas others improve. High mother‐offspring relationship quality and offspring feelings of well‐being prevented close father‐offspring relationships from deteriorating. Offspring’s childbearing and cohabitation following parental divorce increase closeness in father‐offspring relationships that were not close prior to divorce. Although a majority of offspring experienced a decline in closeness following divorce, results from this study show that some very close father‐offspring relationships are maintained and some poor relationships become closer.     

Technical Note – Pricing Below Cost Under Exchange‐Rate Risk

Pricing below cost is often classified as “dumping” in international trade and as “predatory pricing” in local markets. It is legally prohibited from practice because of earlier findings that it leads to predatory behavior by either eliminating competition or stealing market share. This study shows that a stochastic exchange rate can create incentives for a profit‐minded monopoly firm to set price below marginal cost. Our result departs from earlier findings because the optimal pricing decision is based on a rational behavior that does not exhibit any malicious intent against the competition to be considered as violating anti‐trust laws. The finding is a robust result, because our analysis demonstrates that this behavior occurs under various settings such as when the firm (i) is risk‐averse, (ii) can postpone prices until after exchange rates are realized, (iii) is capable of manufacturing in multiple countries, and (iv) operates under demand uncertainty in addition to the random exchange rate.     

Myths and Misconceptions About University Student Volunteering: Development and Perpetuation

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - This paper examines myths and misconceptions about university student volunteering. Our study explored the experiences of...     

Sustainable landscaping programs in the United States and their potential to encourage conservation and support ecosystem services

Sustainable landscaping programs are voluntary initiatives that recommend a set of practices to improve the environmental quality of urban ecosystems by providing landscaping materials, guidelines, and educational resources. Our goal was to examine the recommendations and outcomes of these programs in the United States and their value for encouraging conservation practices in residential ecosystems. We conducted a comprehensive web search and identified 193 sustainable landscaping programs in the United States. Programs aim to increase native species richness, affordably manage stormwater runoff, and offer residents meaningful experiences with nature. Sustainable landscaping programs present many opportunities to engage people with local ecological knowledge and conservation practices, provide accessible spaces for environmental education, cultivate interdisciplinary research collaborations, and advance inclusion in conservation. However, assessments of their ecological value are rare, leaving many questions surrounding the benefits to biodiversity and water quality afforded by participation. Many programs also require investments in landscaping materials and certification fees that might limit participation by some households. Future work should examine how recommended practices influence urban biodiversity, identify and address barriers to participation, and generate social-ecological knowledge that can inform future programs.

     

Metropolitan influences on migration into poor and nonpoor neighborhoods

Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and three decennial US censuses are used to examine the influence of metropolitan-area characteristics on black and white households’ propensity to move into poor versus nonpoor neighborhoods. We find that a nontrivial portion of the variance in the odds of moving to a poor rather to a nonpoor neighborhood exists between metropolitan areas. Net of established individual-level predictors of inter-neighborhood migration, black and white households are more likely to move to a poor or extremely poor tract rather than to a nonpoor tract in metropolitan areas containing many poor neighborhoods and a paucity of recently-built housing in nonpoor areas. Blacks are especially likely to move to a poor tract in metropolitan areas characterized by high levels of racial residential segregation and in which poor tracts have a sizeable concentration of blacks. White households are more likely to move to a poor than to a nonpoor tract in metropolitan areas that have comparatively few African Americans.     

Skewed Sex Ratios and Criminal Victimization in India

Although substantial research has explored the causes of India’s excessively masculine population sex ratio, few studies have examined the consequences of this surplus of males. We merge individual-level data from the 2004–2005 India Human Development Survey with data from the 2001 India population census to examine the association between the district-level male-to-female sex ratio at ages 15 to 39 and self-reports of victimization by theft, breaking and entering, and assault. Multilevel logistic regression analyses reveal positive and statistically significant albeit substantively modest effects of the district-level sex ratio on all three victimization risks. We also find that higher male-to-female sex ratios are associated with the perception that young unmarried women in the local community are frequently harassed. Household-level indicators of family structure, socioeconomic status, and caste, as well as areal indicators of women’s empowerment and collective efficacy, also emerge as significant predictors of self-reported criminal victimization and the perceived harassment of young women. The implications of these findings for India’s growing sex ratio imbalance are discussed.