Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example

Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic.     

关于现代领导干部的素质问题

建设有中国特色的社会主义 ,全面促进中华民族的伟大振兴 ,不但需要雄厚的物质资源和先进的技术设备 ,更需要重视人的因素 ,尤其需要造就一大批高素质的现代领导干部。这是保证我国现代化建设快速发展的关键因素。本文就领导干部素质的含义 ,素质在领导过程中的作用、效果 ,以及如何培养和提高现代领导干部的领导素质等三个方面进行了论述     

Homogenizing Responses to Different Survey Questions on the Same Topic: Proposal of a Scale Homogenization Method Using a Reference Distribution

Survey data are often used for comparison purposes, such as comparisons across nations or comparisons over time. To be effective, this would require equivalent questions and equivalent responses options to the questions. Yet there is a lot of variation in the response scales used, which, for example, differ in the number of response options used and the labeling of these options. This is the case in happiness research, and as a result most of the research data in this field is incomparable. Several methods have been proposed to transform ratings on verbal response scales to a common numerical scale, typically ranging from 0 to 10. In this paper we give an overview of the progress made in those Scale Homogenization methods over time. We describe two early methods: Linear Stretch and the Semantic Judgement of Fixed Word Value Method. Next we discuss the Semantic Judgement of Word Value in Context Method in more detail. Based on these discussions we propose a new Reference Distribution Method. We apply the Semantic Judgement of Word Value in Context and the Reference Distribution Methods to data on happiness in The Netherlands for the years 1989–2009. We show that the Reference Distribution Method produces comparable time series on different questions and that it allows discontinuities in data to be corrected.     

Do Values Matter? The Impact of Work Ethic and Traditional Gender Role Values on Female Labour Market Supply

This article aims to gain a better understanding of the explanatory value of work ethic and traditional gender role values with regard to variation in female labour market supply. Although women’s labour market participation has increased dramatically over the past decades, it still lacks behind that of men. A high female participation rate is desirable for several reasons, for instance to cover rising costs due to the ageing of society. The existing literature has mostly focused on micro-economic and macro factors to explain differences between women in participation rate. However, more recently it has been argued that women’s values may also play an important role in women’s labour market decisions. Work ethic, expressing the moral duty to work in terms of paid employment, is argued to positively affect women’s labour supply. However, it is argued that it can have negative implications too if women who hold more traditional gender role values interpret work and work ethic in terms of housework or in terms of paid employment for men only. This exemplifies the need to study both values at the same time. We used longitudinal Dutch data (LISS panel, 2007–2010) and estimated both cross-sectional and longitudinal models. Both types of models revealed a similar pattern: work ethic is positively associated with women’s labour market participation, but only if we take into account women’s gender role values, which negatively relate to women’s labour market supply.     

Which Aspects of Elderly Living Conditions are Important to Predict Mortality? The Complex Role of Family Ties at Home and in Institutions

Social Indicators Research - Besides health and socio-economic status, the social relationships maintained during elderly play an important role in shaping the living conditions at older ages. In...     

Resolving Coparenting Dissatisfaction In Couples: A Preliminary Task Analysis Study

This study explored the change that unfolded when parents resolved their coparenting dissatisfaction during an Integrative Brief Systemic Intervention (IBSI) for parent couples. We conducted a task analysis (Greenberg, 2007) to build a model of resolving coparenting dissatisfaction. We compared a postulated model of change (rational model) based on theoretical and clinical assumptions to the observations of the actual change process that couples experienced in an IBSI (empirical analysis). The empirical analysis was conducted on six IBSI therapy cases (three exhibiting positive development and three exhibiting no development). We defined positive development in IBSI as moving from coparenting dissatisfaction to coparenting satisfaction. The final rational–empirical model included six steps that facilitated the resolution of coparenting dissatisfaction. This study contributes to deepening the knowledge of how coparenting may change during marital therapy.     

Mobile devices and their effect on the sociality on Dutch Intercity trains

ABSTRACT

Travelling by train is an activity that many people engage in on a daily basis, which is rarely performed alone. While trains are locations where many different strangers potentially encounter each other, they are also portrayed as non-social transient places of passenger conflict and disharmony. Especially the rapid rise of mobile devices has changed the way people interact on board. This mobile ethnography – based on observations, travel-diaries and diary-interviews with 16 frequent travellers of Dutch Intercity trains – contributes to earlier studies on passenger sociality by specifically focussing on how social interactions are influenced by these mobile devices. The findings illustrate that using a mobile phone is indeed the most reported on-board activity and direct interactions are limited. Nevertheless, people on the train speak a very subtle non-verbal language that enables them to interact without engaging in extensive direct interactions. Mobile devices are thus not just enabling or constraining but have become inherent parts of socialising. Furthermore, most people do watch out for each other and try not to bother others. Discomforts emerge from different interpretations and compliances of codes of conduct.     

Half Empty? Drinking Water Systems and Regional Resilience in Rural Canada

This paper investigates the extent that new regionalism has been employed in the planning of rural drinking water systems as a strategy to support rural regional resilience. Through a content analysis of policy documents, this paper explores the question of whether current approaches to the planning of rural drinking water systems reflect a transition towards regional resilience. While there is potential for drinking water systems to support or enhance rural regional resilience, this potential is emergent at best. Policy documents reveal the adoption of regionalist practices is challenged by a lack of regional cohesion and barriers from existing institutional structures.