Lean Production: Denial, Confirmation or Extension of Sociotechnical Systems Design?

This paper makes a comparison between the basicelements of lean production and sociotechnical systemsdesign (STSD) and compares them both with thecharacteristics of the traditional Fordist system of mass production. It argues that lean productioncan hardly be considered as an alternative to massproduction, as its proponents suggest, but is on thecontrary extending the life of mass production methods. However, lean production does appear to containsome building blocks for the innovative productionsystems that are expected to prevail in the 21stcentury. STSD, which has always presented itself as an alternative and possible successor to Fordistmethods, will need to link its traditional concerns forquality of work and flexibility of work organizationswith the new issues of continuous improvement, learning,and innovation.     

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance,Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided.     

Relationship of Dyadic Closeness With Work‐Related Stress: A Daily Diary Study

We examined the association between work‐related stress of both spouses and daily fluctuations in their affective states and dyadic closeness. Daily diary data from 169 Israeli dual‐earner couples were analyzed using multilevel modeling. The findings indicate that work stress has no direct effect on dyadic closeness but rather is mediated by the spouses’ negative mood. Evidence was found for spillover of stress from work to mood at home, as well as negative crossover among couples with higher marital quality, resulting in greater distance on stressful days. Such increased distance may reflect either a deleterious effect of work stress on marital relationships or a protective mechanism used by couples in times of stress.     

The changing morphology of the gulf cities in the age of globalisation: the case of Bahrain

Cities in the Gulf region have been witnessing dramatic changes in their morphology and internal structures during the last three decades due to the successive shifts from endogenous to exogenous types of urban growth. In the past, the urban space was mainly shaped by the tribal structure and the economy of subsistence that is based on fishing, pearl trading and/or farming. After the discovery of oil, a first shift towards an exogenous form occurred. Due to the accumulation of wealth, the kingdom adopted a distributive and comprehensive welfare policy, and became a major and unique actor in shaping the city. At present, a second stage of “exogeneity” is occurring due to globalisation. The installation of large multi-national companies, the liberalisation of the economy and the integration with the world banking system are having a direct impact on the socio-economic, cultural and thus, urban morphology. Bahrain seems to reflect the three stages through the changing urban morphology of its two main cities; Muharraq and Manama. Analysed in the light of the endogenous–exogenous model, it opens a debate on the conditions for the survival of the old cities and defines a theoretical framework for the approach to management and planning to be adopted.     

张君劢“修正的民主政治”

作为现代新儒家代表人物之一的张君劢,最具特色的思想成果是他所谓的"修正的民主政治"。张氏这一思想成果在当时的历史背景下,虽然具有即时性的历史合理性,但在学理上却存在诸多缺失。尤其在自由与权力、政治与经济和政治与文化之关系问题上,由于其文化保守主义倾向,许多提法和致思的理路都有问题。     

法学方法新论

法学方法除了已有的价值评判、实证分析和社会实践以及法律解释、法律推理和逻辑分析等方法之外,还有其他法学方法,如从"事"(事物、事情)到"理"(道理),再从"理"到"法"(法律、法学),最后又从"法"到"事"。较之已有的法学方法,这些方法不仅是创新和发展,而且更为基础和根本。     

Hawkes过程分支比估计——一种简单的非参数方法

Hawkes自激发过程是近年来被广泛用于金融建模的一个良好模型。本文提出了一种Hawkes自激发过程的分支比的简单估计方法,该方法是对Hardiman和Bouchaud提出的均值-方差估计量的改进。在继承均值-方差估计量形式简便的优点的同时,克服其参数难以选择的缺陷,减小了估计的系统性偏差。模拟结果验证了改进的效果,同时我们将该估计方法用于我国股市内生性水平的分析之中。     

Impact of having a high-risk pregnancy on future postpartum contraceptive method choice

BackgroundTo compare the knowledge and preference of preconceptional contraception to future postpartum contraceptive method choice in high-risk pregnancies.Research questionDoes a high-risk pregnancy condition affect future postpartum contraceptive method choice?MethodWomen hospitalised at the High Risk Pregnancy unit of a tertiary research and training hospital were asked to complete a self-reported questionnaire that included demographic characteristics, presence of unintended pregnancy, contraceptive method of choice before the current pregnancy, plans for contraceptive use following delivery and requests for any contraceptive counselling in the postpartum period.FindingsA total of 655 pregnant women were recruited. The mean age, gravidity and parity of the women were 27.48 ± 6.25 years, 2.81 ± 2.15 and 1.40 ± 1.77, respectively. High-risk pregnancy indications included 207 (31.6%) maternal, 396 (60.5%) foetal and 52 (7.9%) uterine factors. All postpartum contraceptive choices except for combined oral contraceptives (COCs) usage were significantly different from preconceptional contraceptive preferences (p < 0.001). High-risk pregnancy indications, future child bearing, ideal number of children, income and education levels were the most important factors influencing postpartum contraceptive choices. While the leading contraceptive method in the postpartum period was long-acting reversible contraceptive methods (non-hormonal copper intrauterine device Cu-IUD, the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) (40%), the least preferred method was COCs use (5.2%) and preference of COCs use showed no difference between the preconceptional and postpartum periods (p = 0.202). Overall 73.7% of the women wanted to receive contraceptive counselling before their discharge.ConclusionA high-risk pregnancy condition may change the opinion and preference of contraceptive use, and also seems to affect the awareness of family planning methods.     

蓝田华胥陵--中华民族的始祖陵

根据古代神话传说 ,盘古开天辟地之后乃有三皇。三皇的说法不一 ,笔者认为从时间早晚上当以燧人氏、伏羲氏和女娲氏为宜。伏羲和女娲皆是神性和人性相结合的人类始祖 ,是东方的“亚当和夏娃”。伏羲和女娲乃华胥氏所生的儿女 ,因此华胥氏是中华民族最早的始祖。蓝田县华胥镇之羲母陵是独一无二的华胥陵 ,华胥陵及与华胥陵相关的三皇故居等遗迹遗址具有重大的历史价值和开发价值     

Dominance and Efficiency in Multicriteria Decision under Uncertainty

This paper proposes several concepts of efficient solutions for multicriteria decision problems under uncertainty. We show how alternative notions of efficiency may be grounded on different decision contexts, depending on what is known about the Decision Maker's (DM) preference structure and probabilistic anticipations. We define efficient sets arising naturally from polar decision contexts. We investigate these sets from the points of view of their relative inclusions and point out some particular subsets which may be especially relevant to some decision situations.