Modelling multi-stage processes through multivariate distributions

A new model combining parametric and semi-parametric approaches and following the lines of a semi-Markov model is developed for multi-stage processes. A Bivariate sojourn time distribution derived from the bivariate exponential distribution of Marshall & Olkin (1967) is adopted. The results compare favourably with the usual semi-parametric approaches that have been in use. Our approach also has several advantages over the models in use including its amenability to statistical inference. For example, the tests for symmetry and also for independence of the marginals of the sojourn time distributions, which were not available earlier, can now be conveniently derived and are enhanced in elegant forms. A unified Goodness-of-Fit test procedure for our proposed model is also presented. An application to the human resource planning involving real-life data from University of Nigeria is given.     

Unbiased Estimation of P(X > Y) for Exponential Populations Using Order Statistics with Application in Ranked Set Sampling

This paper addresses the problem of unbiased estimation of P[X > Y] = θ for two independent exponentially distributed random variables X and Y. We present (unique) unbiased estimator of θ based on a single pair of order statistics obtained from two independent random samples from the two populations. We also indicate how this estimator can be utilized to obtain unbiased estimators of θ when only a few selected order statistics are available from the two random samples as well as when the samples are selected by an alternative procedure known as ranked set sampling. It is proved that for ranked set samples of size two, the proposed estimator is uniformly better than the conventional non-parametric unbiased estimator and further, a modified ranked set sampling procedure provides an unbiased estimator even better than the proposed estimator.     

The Role of Social Networks in the Immigration Decision-making Process: The Case of North American Immigration to Israel

This study focuses on the role of social networks in the decision-making process in migration which occurs between developed countries, specifically in immigration from North America to Israel. The central declared motives for immigration were religious; nevertheless, “materialistic” issues were also mentioned. The decision-making process was long, usually taking from 2 to 10 years. Information was gathered via personal contacts from social networks, during visits to Israel, and from Jewish organisations. The Internet also played a major role in this process. Networks that were set up by Israeli and Jewish organisations were found to be especially effective in organising immigration because they connected non-numerous dispersed individuals, who were thinking about Aliyah, and needed various kinds of support.     

Anna Hazare's Anti-Corruption Movement and the Limits of Mass Mobilization in India

A hunger strike that played upon Gandhi's legacy of civil disobedience and mass protest was India's capstone event for 2011. Initiated by Anna Hazare, a 74-year-old self-styled Gandhian, the protest targeted the government's new anti-corruption legislation, which Hazare proclaimed as too weak. Hazare's demand for a strong anti-corruption law, leading to the establishment of an independent ombudsman (Lokpal), had slowly gained momentum in the first half of 2011, when Hazare collected a sizeable following. It was his unexpected arrest on the eve of the August protest, however, that thrust him into the limelight, sparking candle-lit marches across the country and swelling the ranks of his movement, Indian Against Corruption (IAC). Hazare was hailed as a leader of Gandhian proportions and applauded for his humble origins, numerous awards, and ecologically conscious development work in Ralegan Siddhi, where Hazare took up residence in 1975, following a brief career in the army. His movement, which appeared to be climbing from strength to strength, was thought to be a major political force of lasting influence. But in the year since the Ramlila protest, Hazare's movement has lost steam, with key leaders oscillating between calling for a stronger movement based on ‘the people's guidance’ and entertaining the possibility of entering electoral politics through the formation of a new political party. This article investigates the reasons for the deceleration of the Hazare movement, with an emphasis on why Hazare failed to win the support of the liberal and left sections of society, particularly the intelligentsia.     

Lattices,bargaining and group decisions

This essay aims at constructing an abstract mathematical system which, when interpreted, serves to portray group-choices among alternatives that need not be quantifiable. The system in question is a complete distributive lattice, on which a class of non-negative real-valued homomorphisms is defined. Reinforced with appropriate axioms, this class becomes a convex distributive lattice. If this lattice is equipped with a suitable measure, and if the mentioned class of homomorphisms is equipped with a metric, then the class and its convex sets are seen to possess certain characteristic properties. The main result (Theorem 6) follows from a combination of these results and a famous result due to Choquet.The mathematical scheme is then interpreted in the subject-language of choice among alternatives. It is shown, by means of an example, that the system furnishes all the ingredients for describing multi-group choices. Whether or not the same ingredients are also adequate for a behavioural theory of multi-group choices is an issue that will not be gone into. However, the example effectively illustrates how a process of bargaining can be described with the aid of the mathematical scheme.In the second example, a class of bargaining situations is modelled in the symbolism of linear programming with several objective functions combined with unknown weights; the cost vectors in such formulations are identified with homomorphisms, and the main theorem of this essay is applied.     

Doubly inflated Poisson model using Gaussian copula

Multivariate data are present in many research areas. Its analysis is challenging when assumptions of normality are violated and the data are discrete. The Poisson discrete data can be thought of as very common discrete type, but the inflated and the doubly inflated correspondence are gaining popularity (Sengupta, Chaganty, and Sabo 2015; Lee, Jung, and Jin 2009; Agarwal, Gelfand, and Citron-Pousty 2002).

Our aim is to build a statistical model that can be tractable and used to estimate the model parameters for the multivariate doubly inflated Poisson. To keep the correlation structure, we incorporate ideas from the copula distributions. A multivariate doubly inflated Poisson distribution using Gaussian copula is introduced. Data simulation and parameter estimation algorithms are also provided. Residual checks are carried out to assess any substantial biases. The model dimensionality has been increased to test the performance of the provided estimation method. All results show high-efficiency and promising outcomes in the modeling of discrete data and particularly the doubly inflated Poisson count type data, under a novel modified algorithm.     

The Formation of Transnational Identity among French Immigrants Employed in French‐Speaking Companies in Israel

This study focuses on the formation of a transnational identity among immigrants from France who are employed in French‐speaking companies in Israel (mostly call‐centres). The preliminary qualitative analysis shows that this unique employment pattern contributes to the formation of their transnational identity, which is a combination of their francophone, Jewish and Israeli identity. The findings obtained from a larger‐scale online survey indicated that French immigrants employed in French‐speaking companies are more ethnically, socially and culturally segregated, and less fluent in Hebrew than French immigrants who are not employed in such companies. However, no significant differences were found between these two groups in their Israeli identity and sense of belonging to Israeli society. In general, the French immigrants feel at home in Israel, are satisfied with their life in Israel and plan to remain there. The implications of these findings for policymakers are discussed.     

Multi dimensional system for evaluating preventive program for upper extremity disorders among computer operators

Typing is associated with musculoskeletal complaints (MSCs), caused by multiple risk factors. Although a wide variety of ergonomic intervention programs were conducted to reduce risk factors and MSC's, only few of them were found evidence based. This study aimed to test the efficacy of a workplace intervention in reducing MSC's among computer workers. 66 computer workers were assigned randomly to one of three intervention programs: ergonomic intervention including biofeedback, intervention without biofeedback and control group without intervention. The efficacy was tested by advanced assessment including; pain location and severity, posture at work, upper extremity 3D kinematics, muscle activity and psychosocial status. Working hypothesis; significant score differences will be found between the study groups which underwent ergonomic intervention and the control group on the following measures: pain complaints, upper extremity kinematics, muscle activity and psychosocial status. Significant differences were found between pre and post intervention and between research groups and the control group in pain, posture and motion. The ergonomic intervention with biofeedback had no unique contribution in comparison to other interventions. In conclusion; the proposed intervention program was found efficient for reducing pain among computer workers.