Frugivory and habitat use by thrushes (Turdus spp.) in a suburban area in south Brazil

Thrushes (Turdus spp., Turdidae) are among the most common frugivorous birds in urban areas around the world, where they disperse the seeds of a variety of plant species. We studied the abundance, habitat use, foraging behavior and diet of four thrush species (Turdus rufiventris, T. amaurochalinus, T. leucomelas, and T. albicollis) in a suburban area in south Brazil. Abundance, habitat use and foraging behavior were based on birds surveyed along a 3,240 m transect crossing open (formed by lawns, streets, and buildings) and forested areas. Diet was based on fecal samples collected from mist-netted birds. Turdus rufiventris was the most abundant species, followed by T. amaurochalinus, T. leucomelas, and T. albicollis. All species used forest fragments more frequently than expected by chance. A total of 91.8% (n = 147) of the fecal samples contained fruit remains, while 42.2% contained only animal matter. Most of the foraging records were on the ground, where birds got mainly invertebrates. Fruits and invertebrates were eaten more frequently in open than in forested areas. A total of 25 seed morfospecies were found in the droppings, including five exotic plant species. Thrushes overlapped widely in the fruit composition of their diets. The high abundance and degree of frugivory, coupled with the frequent use of forest patches, indicate that thrushes are among the great bird contributors to the seed dispersal occurring in urban forest patches, potentially influencing the vegetation dynamics of such habitats so important for the maintenance of the biodiversity in urban areas.     

A closed loop automatic scheduling system (CLASS)

Abstract

CLASS is a production scheduling system, that is designed to function in either a stand-alone manner, or in conjunction with an MRP system. MRP systems innately do not have 'closed loop’ capability in the sense of being able to produce master schedules and order releases that are consistent and that respect capacity constraints. True closed loop performance requires detailed scheduling. In addition to interfacing with MRP systems, CLASS is designed to produce schedules that can be used in conventional shops or can be downloaded to automated facilities. The design goals for the system, its internal architecture, and its role in manufacturing control systems are described. The modelling and decision capabilities     

Competence and consent to research: A critique of the recommendations of the national bioethics advisory commission*

Concern about the participation of incompetent subjects in psychiatric research has grown in the last several years. In response, the National Bioethics Advisory Commission (NBAC) recommended in its recent report that all investigations involving persons with mental disorders that may be associated with cognitive impairment that may pose greater than minimal risk to subjects utilize independent assessors to verify the capacities of subjects prior to entry into the study. This recommendation poses several problems for the conduct of research and the protection of research subjects. First, it fails to target that group of subjects most likely to be at risk for incapacity. Second, it focuses on too broad a range of research projects, many of which pose little risk to participants. The substantial costs of this approach are therefore not likely to be outweighed by concomitant benefits. In place of the NBAC recommendation, the author proposes a more flexible system of capacity assessment, designed to balance the costs with a greater likelihood of achieving meaningful protection for research subjects with mental disorders.     

A modified subset selection formulation with special reference to one-way and two-way layout experiments

The usual formulation of subset selection due to Gupta (1956) requires a minimum guaranteed probability of a correct selection. The modified formulation of the present paper includes an additional requirement that the expected number of the nonbest populations be bounded above by a specified constant when the best and the next best populations are ‘sufficiently’ apart. A class of procedures is defined and the determination of the minimum sample size required is discussed. The specific problems discussed for normal populations include selection in terms of means and variances, and selection in terms of treatment effects in a two-way layout.     

Unbiastld estimation of parametric functions in sampling from two two-truncation parameter families

We consider the problem of UMVU estimation of a U-estimable function of four unknown truncation parameters based on two independent random samples from two two-truncation parameter families. In particular, we obtain the UMVU estimator of functional, P (Y > X). Also the confidence intervals for some parametric functions are obtained.     

Understanding the demographic implications of climate change: estimates of localized population predictions under future scenarios of sea-level rise

Significant advances have been made to understand the interrelationship between humans and the environment in recent years, yet research has not produced useful localized estimates that link population forecasts to environmental change. Coarse, static population estimates that have little information on projected growth or spatial variability mask substantial impacts of environmental change on especially vulnerable populations. We estimate that 20 million people in the United States will be affected by sea-level rise by 2030 in selected regions that represent a range of sociodemographic characteristics and corresponding risks of vulnerability. Our results show that the impact of sea-level rise extends beyond the directly impacted counties due to migration networks that link inland and coastal areas and their populations. Substantial rates of population growth and migration are serious considerations for developing mitigation, adaptation, and planning strategies, and for future research on the social, demographic, and political dimensions of climate change.     

Are Educational Mismatches Responsible for the ‘Inequality Increasing Effect’ of Education?

This paper asks whether educational mismatches can account for the positive association between education and wage inequality found in the data. We use two different data sources, the European Community Household Panel and the Portuguese Labour Force Survey, and consider several types of mismatch, including overqualification, underqualification and skills mismatch. We test our hypothesis using two different measurement methods, the ‘statistical’ and the ‘subjective’ approach. The results are robust to the different choices and unambiguously show that the positive effect of education on wage inequality is not due to the prevalence of educational mismatches in the labour market.     

Simple methods for evaluating and comparing binary experiments

We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization is used for Bayesian belief updates and for the equivalent comparison of binary experiments. In contrast to the standard parametrization of a binary information source in terms of its specificity and its sensitivity, one of the two confidence parameters is sufficient for a Bayesian belief update conditional on a signal realization. We introduce a confidence-augmented receiver operating characteristic for comparisons of binary experiments for a class of “balanced” decision problems, relative to which the confidence order offers a higher resolution than Blackwell’s informativeness order.

Where observation is concerned, Chance favors only the prepared mind. —Louis Pasteur (1822–1895).

     

Models and estimation for systems with recurrent events and usage processes

This paper considers settings where populations of units may experience recurrent events, termed failures for convenience, and where the units are subject to varying levels of usage. We provide joint models for the recurrent events and usage processes, which facilitate analysis of their relationship as well as prediction of failures. Data on usage are often incomplete and we show how to implement maximum likelihood estimation in such cases. Random effects models with linear usage processes and gamma usage processes are considered in some detail. Data on automobile warranty claims are used to illustrate the proposed models and estimation methodology.