The Psychophysics of Terror Attack Casualty Counts

In communicating the risk that terror attacks pose to the public, government agencies and other organizations must understand which characteristics of an attack contribute to the public's perception of its severity. An attack's casualty count is one of the most commonly used metrics of a terror attack's severity, yet it is unclear whether the public responds to information about casualty count when forming affective and cognitive reactions to terror attacks. This study sought to characterize the “psychophysical function” relating terror attack casualty counts to the severity of the affective and cognitive reactions they elicit. We recruited n = 684 Mechanical Turk participants to read a realistic vignette depicting either a biological or radiological terror attack, whose death toll ranged from 20 to 50,000, and rated their levels of fear and anger along with the attack's severity. Even when controlling for the perceived plausibility of the scenarios, participants’ severity ratings of each attack were logarithmic with respect to casualty count, while ratings of fear and anger did not significantly depend on casualty count. These results were consistent across attack weapon (biological vs. radiological) and time horizon of the casualties (same-day or anticipated to occur over several years). These results complement past work on life loss valuation and highlight a potential bifurcation between the public's affective and cognitive evaluations of terror attacks.     

The Effect of Sample Size on the Meaning of Significance Tests

Contradictory interpretations of how the meaning of a significance test depends on the sample size are examined.     

From hegemony to affinity

Drawing upon a critique of the (post)Marxist theory of hegemony and examples from contemporary activism, this article assesses new possibilities for the construction of radical alternatives within and against postmodern globalizing capitalism. It notes that many elements of the ‘newest’ social movements have taken a turn away from the universalizing conception of social change that is characteristic of the logic of hegemony as it has developed. within (post)Marxism and (neo)liberalism. Instead, these activist currents are driven by an anarchist logic of affinity. Along with this logic has come an emphasis on direct action tactics, which is discussed. with reference to a theoretical distinction between a politics of the act and a politics of demand. Although most existing paradigms of social movement analysis have not addressed. these shifts, they are implicitly acknowledged. in the concept of constituent power developed. by Michael Hardt and Toni Negri. Their work falls short, however, to the extent that it remains in other respects within the tradition of hegemonic thought. To more fully comprehend current developments, it is necessary to construct an alternative genealogy based. on anarchist theory and practice, with a focus on the tradition of ‘structural renewal’ that finds it apogee in the work of Gustav Landauer.     

GALILEO's CHILDREN: Italian Americans' Difficult Entry into the Intellectual Elite

We examine the possibility of ethnic exclusion by U.S. intellectual elites for the case of Italian Americans, a large, identifiable group that has assimilated into the mainstream during the last half century but is still the subject of demeaning stereotypes with wide currency. Membership in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a fellowship of nearly 4,000 members drawn from throughout the academic, scientific, and artistic worlds, is used as a window into processes of ethnic stratification among intellectuals and academics. The analysis establishes that Italian Americans are represented in the Academy at a level well below their percentage among college and university faculty. Their frequency of election has increased substantially in recent years, but we conclude that the evidence is consistent with continuing ethnic disadvantage.     

Asymptotic behavior of the grenander estimator at density flat regions

Over forty years ago, Grenander derived the MLE of a monotone decreasing density f with known mode. Prakasa Rao obtained the asymptotic distribution of this estimator at a fixed point x where f' (x) < 0. Here, we obtain the asymptotic distribution of this estimator at a fixed point x when f is constant and nonzero in some open neighborhood of x. This limiting distribution is expressible as the convolution of a closed-form density and a rescaled standard normal density. Groeneboom (1983) derived the aforementioned closed-form density and we provide an alternative, more direct derivation.     

Profitability of Service‐Level‐Based Price Differentiation with Inventory Rationing

In this paper, we study the profitability of service‐level‐based price differentiation (SLBPD) in an inventory‐rationing context. SLBPD implies that a company offers several combinations of prices and guaranteed service levels, from which customers self‐select; different customers choose different offerings because they incur different shortage costs if an order is not fulfilled immediately. We develop an analytical model for SLBPD and explore if and when such a service differentiation strategy yields higher profits than a single undifferentiated offering. The results of our analyses suggest that SLBPD is profitable only if a company faces pricing restrictions, e.g., because of competitive pressure or regulatory restrictions. We develop necessary and sufficient conditions under which a specific and relevant form of SLBPD (called “service‐level‐based upselling”) is profitable, and provide an algorithm to compute the optimal parameters of such a policy. Based on this algorithm we carry out numerical analyses that allow us to characterize the profit increment of service‐level‐based upselling. We derive managerial insights into the attractiveness of SLBPD and explain how our basic analytical framework can be extended to account for more complex practical features.     

Is “Generic Utility Theory” a Suitable Theory of Choice Behavior for Gambles with Mixed Gains and Losses?

Miyamoto's (1988, 1992) generic utility theory (GUT) subsumes a broad class of bilinear utility models. Chechile and Cooke (1997) tested the GUT class of models and found model failure due to the systematic variation of a parameter that should be a positive constant across a range of contexts. In the current study, an improved experimental design is employed to evaluate utility theory. The current study provides further evidence against the GUT class of models for mixed gambles. Moreover, evidence is also provided to demonstrate individual behavior that is incompatible with a coherent bilinear utility theory of choice behavior in the context of mixed gambles with gains and losses.