Integrating Models and Data to Estimate the Structural Reliability of Utility Poles During Hurricanes

Utility systems such as power and communication systems regularly experience significant damage and loss of service during hurricanes. A primary damage mode for these systems is failure of wooden utility poles that support conductors and communication lines. In this article, we present an approach for combining structural reliability models for utility poles with observed data on pole performance during past hurricanes. This approach, based on Bayesian updating, starts from an imperfect but informative prior and updates this prior with observed performance data. We consider flexural and foundation failure mechanisms in the prior, acknowledging that these are an incomplete, but still informative, subset of the possible failure mechanisms for utility poles during hurricanes. We show how a model‐based prior can be updated with observed failure data, using pole failure data from Hurricane Katrina as a case study. The results of this integration of model‐based estimates and observed performance data then offer a more informative starting point for power system performance estimation for hurricane conditions.     

The Partisan Impact of Congressional Redistricting: The Case of Texas, 2001–2003*

Objective. In this article we assess the partisan effects of five plans proposed by Republican state legislators during Texas' 2003 congressional redistricting. Methods. Using the JudgeIt statistical program developed by Gelman and King (2001) , and data provided by the Texas Legislative Council, we assess the bias, responsiveness, and the probability that the Democratic Party wins each district for each plan. Results. All five Republican plans, including the one enacted, are strongly biased in favor of the Republican Party. Conclusions. Texas' Democratic legislators were wise to use every parliamentary maneuver available to block the enactment of a new congressional map. Beyond affecting the partisan makeup of the Texas delegation, Texas' redistricting has national implications because it adds to the GOP's narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.     

Trends in the Research and Practice of Health Communication Campaigns

A compelling communication tool that can potentially impact health‐related outcomes and indicators across numerous health problems among a diversity of audiences is the health communication campaign. The purpose of the current article is to discuss trends in the research and practice of health communication campaigns. First, we discuss the issue of campaign effects and discuss a framework that encompasses key principles of effective campaigns. Next, we discuss four trends in health communication campaigns: (a) the increased application of marketing principles in campaigns; (b) the greater use of rigorous outcome evaluation designs in campaign research; (c) the increased use of cost effectiveness analysis in campaigns; and (d) the increased use of new media technologies in campaigns. Finally, we conclude the article with thoughts about the future of health communication campaign research and practice in relation to these trends.     

Perceived Parental Relationships and Health‐Risk Behaviors in College‐Attending Emerging Adults

The present study investigated the association of perceived parenting with health‐risk behaviors in an ethnically diverse sample of 1,728 college‐attending emerging adults. Participants completed retrospective measures of perceived maternal and paternal nurturance, connection, psychological control, and disrespect and reported their frequency of binge drinking, illicit drug use, unsafe sexual behavior, and impaired driving. Multivariate Poisson regression analyses indicated that perceived paternal acceptance was associated inversely with 6 of the 12 health‐risk behaviors measured, whereas perceived mothering was related only to 2 of these health‐risk behaviors. These patterns were consistent across gender, ethnicity, and family structure.     

Reversals of Least-Square Estimates and Model-Invariant Estimation for Directions of Unique Effects

When a linear model is adjusted to control for additional explanatory variables, the sign of a fitted coefficient may reverse. Here, these reversals are studied using coefficients of determination. The resulting theory can be used to determine directions of unique effects in the presence of model uncertainty. This process is called model-invariant estimation when the estimates are invariant across changes to the model structure. When a single covariate is added, the reversal region can be understood geometrically as an elliptical cone of two nappes with an axis of symmetry relating to a best-possible condition for a reversal using a single coefficient of determination. When a set of covariates are added to a model with a single explanatory variable, model-invariant estimation can be implemented using subject matter knowledge. More general theory with partial coefficients is applicable to analysis of large datasets. Applications are demonstrated with dietary health data from the United Nations.     

Comment on Cross, Fine, Jones, and Walsh (2012): we are now on the same page

Role conflict has been an issue in the intervention of child abuse cases since the beginning of the alliance drawn between the legal and mental health professions. In child abuse cases, clearly defined roles will prevent an attack on the process, thereby providing successful interventions to protect children. The child advocacy center concept is one of the best ways to meld the two professional functions into a cohesive approach to those interventions.     

Twelve-Month Prevalence of DSM-5 Gambling Disorder and Associated Gambling Behaviors Among Those Receiving Methadone Maintenance

This study sought to: (1) determine the prevalence of gambling disorder using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Version 5 (DSM-5; American Psychiatric Association in Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, American Psychiatric Publishing, Arlington, 2013) criteria; (2) identify the frequency and amount of money spent on gambling behaviors; and (3) determine demographic and treatment related predictors associated with gambling disorder in a substance using population. People receiving methadone maintenance treatment (N = 185) in an urban medical center consented to participate in the study. We used DSM-5 criteria to assess the 12-month prevalence of gambling disorder. Questions adapted from a previously developed measure were used to identify, describe and quantify the frequency of use and amount of money spent on gambling behaviors. Most participants were African-American (71.4 %), male (54.1 %), unmarried (76.8 %), unemployed (88.1 %) and had an income of <$20,000 (88.5 %). On average, participants were receiving 81.0 mg of methadone (SD: 22.8) daily. Nearly half (46.2 %) of participants met DSM-5 criteria for gambling disorder. Compared to those without gambling disorder, those with gambling disorder did not differ significantly with respect to demographic characteristics nor methadone dose. However, those with gambling disorder had been in methadone maintenance treatment for significantly less time. Those with gambling disorder were significantly more likely to report engaging in a variety of gambling behaviors. Given that the 12-month prevalence of DSM-5 defined gambling disorder was nearly 50 % future efforts to screen and treat gambling disorder in the context of methadone maintenance treatment are clearly warranted.     

Urban predator–prey association: coyote and deer distributions in the Chicago metropolitan area

We examined how predator or prey presence, as well as local and landscape factors, influence the distribution of coyotes (Canis latrans) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Chicago metropolitan area. We collected data for 2 years at 93 study sites along 3 transects of urbanization using motion-triggered cameras. Our primary objective was to determine the relationship among coyote and deer spatial and temporal distribution, habitat characteristics, and human activity using multi-season patch occupancy models. Coyote occupancy was most strongly linked to rates of site visitation by humans and dogs, and was more likely farther from the urban center, with coyote colonization of sites inversely related to road density, housing density, and human and dog site visitation. Deer more frequently occupied sites with high canopy cover near water sources and colonized smaller sites with reduced housing density and human and dog presence. Expected predator–prey dynamics were altered in this highly urban system. Though we predicted deer would avoid coyotes on the landscape based on an “ecology of fear” framework, deer and coyote occupancy showed a strong positive association. We suggest that a scarcity of quality habitat in urban areas may cause the species to co-occupy habitat despite potential fawn predation. Modifying human foot traffic in green spaces may represent a useful tool for management and conservation of large urban mammals.