Forecasting demand for food in Libya—using confidence limits

Many developing countries are not self-sufficient in food production and they depend on food imports. In order to plan imports well in advance, the demand for food must be forecasted. If the forecasts are too low, the people suffer. On the other hand if the forecasts are too high—the food being a perishable commodity—resources of the country are wasted. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) undertakes such forecasts occasionally. The FAO however links the food consumption to the income of a country and then just assume future income. Such forecasts have no scientific validity and could both fall short or be grossly excessive. In this study, the methodologies of Time Series and Regression Analysis are combined to avoid any guesses. Then confidence intervals are built so that it can be stated, e.g. with 95 per cent confidence that a nation will not eat more than the amount specified. A comparison of costs is made and it is shown that a country can save millions of dollars through the method of statistical confidence limits rather than by adding arbitrary quantities to means and averages. Finally savings possible in some other developing countries, by adopting the proposed method, are tabulated.     

Generalized bent-cable methodology for changepoint data: a Bayesian approach

The choice of the model framework in a regression setting depends on the nature of the data. The focus of this study is on changepoint data, exhibiting three phases: incoming and outgoing, both of which are linear, joined by a curved transition. Bent-cable regression is an appealing statistical tool to characterize such trajectories, quantifying the nature of the transition between the two linear phases by modeling the transition as a quadratic phase with unknown width. We demonstrate that a quadratic function may not be appropriate to adequately describe many changepoint data. We then propose a generalization of the bent-cable model by relaxing the assumption of the quadratic bend. The properties of the generalized model are discussed and a Bayesian approach for inference is proposed. The generalized model is demonstrated with applications to three data sets taken from environmental science and economics. We also consider a comparison among the quadratic bent-cable, generalized bent-cable and piecewise linear models in terms of goodness of fit in analyzing both real-world and simulated data. This study suggests that the proposed generalization of the bent-cable model can be valuable in adequately describing changepoint data that exhibit either an abrupt or gradual transition over time.     

Circular versions of systematic sampling in the presence of linear trend

In this paper, an alternative approach was employed and derived the explicit expressions of sample mean and its variance for the circular and the diagonal circular systematic schemes since these expressions were unavailable in the existing literature. The study also found the corrected estimator of population mean and average variance under super-population model for these scheme. It further revealed that the circular systematic sampling almost performed better than that of the diagonal circular systematic sampling in both linear and auto-correlated super-population models.     

Women’s Strategic Responses to Intimate Partner Violence: A Study in a Rural Community of Bangladesh

The objective of this study was to explore women’s strategic responses to physical violence perpetrated by an intimate partner. Twenty women from a rural area of the Narshingdi district in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh who experienced physical violence at home participated in the study. Development of the interview protocol and data analysis were carried out by applying the consensual qualitative research (CQR) method. The results showed that several themes, such as women’s responses to intimate partner violence, arose from the data. First, coping strategies to pre‐violent events included three themes: (i) leaving the scene; (ii) trying to divert attention; and (iii) preparing to protest. Women’s strategic responses to violent events consisted of four themes: (i) leaving the scene; (ii) remaining silent or no giving response; (iii) seeking help from others; and (iv) protesting against the violence. Lastly, women’s strategic responses to post‐violent events consisted of three themes: (i) temporary abstinence; (ii) verbally abusive behavior to family members; and (iii) going to the parental home. Given the findings of this study, we conclude by suggesting that more work is needed to better understand effective strategies and to draw women to institutional services to prevent violence to a greater extent.     

Poverty as Functioning Deprivation: Global Estimates

Poverty alleviation and eradication have always remained a major challenge for the political leadership at the national and international level. However, no consensus exists about the definition and measurement of poverty. Recent understanding sees poverty as much more than lack of income. Hunger, unemployment and ill heath are just some of many dimensions of poverty. We have contributed to the existing debate by defining poverty as a deprivation of a number of functionings (actual achievements), considered vital but not equally important for human wellbeing, caused by an inadequate command over market or nonmarket resources. We have identified nine basic functionings and corresponding indicators that best reflect these nine basic functionings and develop a composite index of poverty for 193 countries of the world for cross country comparison. We have analyzed poverty for two periods 1990–2000 and 2001–2010 to make an inter-temporal comparison in global poverty. According to our estimates, the global poverty has only modestly come down by 4 percentage points from 35% in 1990–2000 to 31% in 2001–2010. This contrasts sharply with the estimates based on the poverty line of the World Bank that the proportion of population living in extreme poverty has nearly halved from 47% in 1990 to 24% in 2015.     

Group Dynamics in Development of the Poor: Experience from BRAC

The groups deliberately formed by nongovernmental organizations to organize the poor for their development are often subgrouped for better performance. In this connection, the study investigates the extent subgroups contribute to group performance, the mechanisms that lead to the contribution of subgroups to group performance, and changes in the contribution of subgroups to the performance of a group. Altogether 239 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee groups, i.e., village organizations (VOs), with and without subgroups were investigated. The VOs with subgroups performed better than those without subgroups. The performance of the VOs with subgroups, however, declined over time. One of the reasons why effectiveness of VOs with subgroups declined was the belief that pursuing subgroup responsibilities would not bring any personal gain for members.     

Risk Analysis of a Gas-Processing Complex in India

ONGC's Hazira Gas-Processing Complex (HGPC) consists of facilities for receiving natural gas along with associated condensate from an off-shore field at a rate of 20 MMN M3 per day. After separating the condensate, which is processed in condensate fractionation units, the gas is processed through various steps to recover LPG and to reduce its dew point to less than 5 degrees C in order to make it suitable for transportation over long distances. The acid gas recovered during the gas-sweetening step is processed to obtain sulphur. The major products manufactured at HGPC therefore are lean sweet gas, LPG, NGL, and sulphur. The Oil and Natural Gas Commission awarded the assignment on Hazard Study and Risk Analysis of their Hazira Gas-Processing Complex (HGPC) to the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in association with the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO). The scope of this assignment covered a number of closely related and fully defined activities normally encountered in this type of work. Identification of hazards through the most appropriate methods, assigning frequency of occurrence of major unwanted incidents, quantification and assessment of probable damage to plant equipment, environment, human and animal life due to an unexpected event, and evaluation of various methods for reducing risk, together constituted the methodology for this assignment. Detailed recommendations aimed at reducing risk and enhancing reliability of plant and machinery were made. This article gives an overview of the assignment.     

Recurrence relations between product moments of order statistics

A general result for obtaining recurrence relations between product moments of order statistics is established and this result is used to determine the recurrence relations between product moments of some doubly truncated distributions. The examples considered are Weibull, exponential, Pareto, power function and Cauchy distributions.     

A note on the asymptotic efficiency of the sobel–wald test

Let X₁,X₂, … be iid random variables with the pdf f(x,θ)=exp(θx?b(θ)) relative to a σ-finite measure μ, and consider the problem of deciding among three simple hypotheses H_i:θ=θ_i (1?i?3) subject to P(acceptH_i|θ_i)=1?α (1?i?3). A procedure similar to Sobel–Wald procedure is discussed and its asymptotic efficiency as compared with the best nonsequential test is obtained by finding the limit lim_a→0(E_iN(a)/n(a)), where N (a) is the stopping time of the proposed procedure and n(a) is the sample size of the best non-sequential test. It is shown that the same asymptotic limit holds for the original Sobel–Wald procedure. Specializing to N(θ,1) distribution it is found that lim_a→0$\text{(E}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{N(α)/n(α))=}\text{1}\text{4}$ (i=1,2) and lim_a→0 (E₃N(α)n(α))=δ²₁/4δ, where δ_i=(θ_i+1?θ_i) with 0<δ₁?δ₂. Also, the asymptotic efficiency evaluated when the X's have an exponential distribution.     

A note on the admissibility of hammersley's estimator of an integer mean

Let X₁, X₂, …, X_n be identically, independently distributed N(i,1) random variables, where i = 0, ±1, ±2, … Hammersley (1950) showed that d = [X?_n], the nearest integer to the sample mean, is the maximum likelihood estimator of i. Khan (1973) showed that d is minimax and admissible with respect to zero-one loss. This note now proves a conjecture of Stein to the effect that in the class of integer-valued estimators d is minimax and admissible under squared-error loss.