Adam D. DeWeese  Neil E. Kmiecik  Esteban D. Chiriboga  Jeffery A. Foran 《Risk analysis》2009,29(5):729-742

The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) has produced Ogaa (walleye— Sander vitreus ) consumption advisories since 1996 for Anishinaabe from GLIFWC member tribes in the 1837 and 1842 ceded territories of Wisconsin. GLIFWC's advisory maps were revised in 2005 to address cultural sensitivities (to protect tribal lifeways), to utilize recent mercury exposure information, and to incorporate changes in advisory levels for methyl mercury. Lake-specific, risk-based, culturally sensitive consumption advice was provided on color-coded maps for two groups: children under age 15 years and females of childbearing age, and males 15 years and older and females beyond childbearing age. The maps were distributed to, and a behavioral intervention program developed for, the six GLIFWC member tribes in Wisconsin as well as member tribes in Minnesota and the 1842 ceded territory of Michigan. Tribal fish harvesters, tribal health care providers, women of childbearing age or with young children, tribal leaders, elders, and children were targeted specifically for the behavioral intervention. The efficacy of the behavioral intervention was assessed using surveys of 275 tribal fish harvesters from Wisconsin, 139 tribal harvesters from Michigan and Minnesota, and 156 Wisconsin women of childbearing age. Significant increases in the percentage of survey participants who indicated awareness of advisory maps occurred among Wisconsin harvesters (increase from 60% to 77%), Michigan and Minnesota harvesters (29% to 51%), and women of childbearing age in Wisconsin (40% to 87%). A significant increase in preference for smaller Ogaa occurred among tribal harvesters in Wisconsin (41% to 72%) and tribal harvesters in Michigan and Minnesota (49% to 71%), although not among women of childbearing age. The GLIFWC map-based advisory program did not adversely affect tribal harvest of Ogaa, which increased from 63,000 to 88,000 fish in the three states after the intervention.  相似文献   

    

Daniel Krewski  Melvin E. Andersen  Ellen Mantus  Lauren Zeise 《Risk analysis》2009,29(4):492-497

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Rida E. Moustafa  Ali S. Hadi 《Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics》2009,1(2):245-250

The relationship between Andrews plot and Grand Tour (GT) stems from the fact that both view multiprojections of hyperdimensional data. The difference, however, is that GT views all possible projections of the data, while Andrews plot views only sets of projections. In this paper, we give a quick introduction to GT and Andrews plot and some visualization examples. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. This article is categorized under:

• Statistical and Graphical Methods of Data Analysis > Statistical Graphics and Visualization

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Tams Koltai  Kathryn E. Stecke 《Production and Operations Management》2008,17(2):211-223

In a job shop, because of large setup times, each operation is assigned to only one machine. There is no alternative routing. In a flexible manufacturing system, each manufacturing operation can often be performed on several machines. Therefore, with automated equipment, the capacity of a machine to perform certain operations is not independent of the capacity of other machines. Often, however, operations managers can use a route‐independent answer to production planning questions. For example, how much can be produced of a certain part type and when are important capacity questions in business negotiations, when the detailed routing and scheduling are not yet of interest or cannot be known. This paper provides a mathematical model for the route‐independent analysis of the capacity of flexible manufacturing systems based on a concept of operation types. An example is provided both to illustrate the use of operation types and to highlight the differences between the traditional route‐dependent and the proposed route‐independent formulations of capacity constraints. Some computational results are also given. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is developed to analyze the feasibility of production plans when production requirements and machine capacities can change.  相似文献   

    

Mark E. Ferguson  L. Beril Toktay 《Production and Operations Management》2006,15(3):351-368

Manufacturers often face a choice of whether to recover the value in their end‐of‐life products through remanufacturing. In many cases, firms choose not to remanufacture, as they are (rightly) concerned that the remanufactured product will cannibalize sales of the higher‐margin new product. However, such a strategy may backfire for manufacturers operating in industries where their end‐of‐life products (cell phones, tires, computers, automotive parts, etc.) are attractive to third‐party remanufacturers, who may seriously cannibalize sales of the original manufacturer. In this paper, we develop models to support a manufacturer's recovery strategy in the face of a competitive threat on the remanufactured product market. We first analyze the competition between new and remanufactured products produced by a monopolist manufacturer and identify conditions under which the firm would choose not to remanufacture its products. We then characterize the potential profit loss due to external remanufacturing competition and analyze two entry‐deterrent strategies: remanufacturing and preemptive collection. We find that a firm may choose to remanufacture or preemptively collect its used products to deter entry, even when the firm would not have chosen to do so under a pure monopoly environment. Finally, we discuss conditions under which each strategy is more beneficial.  相似文献   

    

Michael E. Ketzenberg  Erwin van der Laan  Ruud H. Teunter 《Production and Operations Management》2006,15(3):393-406

We explore the value of information (VOI) in the context of a firm that faces uncertainty with respect to demand, product return, and product recovery (yield). The operational decision of interest in matching supply with demand is the quantity of new product to order. Our objective is to evaluate the VOI from reducing one or more types of uncertainties, where value is measured by the reduction in total expected holding and shortage costs. We start with a single period model with normally distributed demands and returns, and restrict the analysis to the value of full information (VOFI) on one or more types of uncertainty. We develop estimators that are predictive of the value and sensitivity of (combinations of) different information types. We find that there is no dominance in value amongst the different types of information, and that there is an additional pay‐off from investing in more than one type. We then extend our analysis to the multi‐period case, where returns in a period are correlated with demands in the previous period, and study the value of partial information (VOPI) as well as full information. We demonstrate that our results from the single period model (adapted for VOPI) carry‐over exactly. Furthermore, a comparison with uniformly distributed demand and return show that these results are robust with respect to distributional assumptions.  相似文献   

    

Bo E. Honor  Elie Tamer 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2006,74(3):611-629

Identification of dynamic nonlinear panel data models is an important and delicate problem in econometrics. In this paper we provide insights that shed light on the identification of parameters of some commonly used models. Using these insights, we are able to show through simple calculations that point identification often fails in these models. On the other hand, these calculations also suggest that the model restricts the parameter to lie in a region that is very small in many cases, and the failure of point identification may, therefore, be of little practical importance in those cases. Although the emphasis is on identification, our techniques are constructive in that they can easily form the basis for consistent estimates of the identified sets.  相似文献   

    

Dorothy E. Patton  Stephen S. Olin 《Risk analysis》2006,26(1):5-16

The article offers insights on the peer-review process as it relates to scientific and technical reports used to inform regulatory decisions. Used effectively, peer review is a powerful tool for advising organizational leaders whether the scientific foundations of their decisions can be expected to withstand scrutiny as rule-making products move through interagency reviews, public comment and stakeholder processes, congressional oversight, and judicial review. The emphasis is \"heads up\" rather than \"how to.\" That is, without delving into myriad technical and administrative details, the discussion highlights nine fundamental \"leadership responsibilities\" that determine the nature and course of peer review.  相似文献   

    

Bo E. Honor  Adriana Lleras‐Muney 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2006,74(6):1675-1698

In 1971, President Nixon declared war on cancer. Thirty years later, many declared this war a failure: the age‐adjusted mortality rate from cancer in 2000 was essentially the same as in the early 1970s. Meanwhile the age‐adjusted mortality rate from cardiovascular disease fell dramatically. Since the causes that underlie cancer and cardiovascular disease are likely dependent, the decline in mortality rates from cardiovascular disease may partially explain the lack of progress in cancer mortality. Because competing risks models (used to model mortality from multiple causes) are fundamentally unidentified, it is difficult to estimate cancer trends. We derive bounds for aspects of the underlying distributions without assuming that the underlying risks are independent. We then estimate changes in cancer and cardiovascular mortality since 1970. The bounds for the change in duration until death for either cause are fairly tight and suggest much larger improvements in cancer than previously estimated.  相似文献   

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Samuel D. Brody  B. Mitchell Peck  Wesley E. Highfield 《Risk analysis》2004,24(6):1561-1574

Environmental and human health issues associated with outdoor air pollution, such as ozone, sulfur dioxide, and other pollutants in metropolitan regions, are an area of growing concern for both policy officials and the general public. Increasing attention from the news media, new health data, and public debate over the effectiveness of clean air regulations have raised the importance of air quality in the public consciousness. While public perceptions of air quality have been studied thoroughly dating back to the 1960s, little empirical research has been conducted to explain the spatial aspects of these perceptions, particularly at the local level. Although recent studies suggest characteristics of local setting are important in shaping perceptions of air quality, the roles of proximity, neighborhood characteristics, and location have not been clarified. This study seeks to improve understanding of the major factors shaping public perceptions of air quality by examining the spatial pattern of local risk perception, the role of socioeconomic characteristics in forming these perceptions, and the relationship between perceived and scientifically measured air pollution. First, we map the spatial pattern of local air quality perceptions using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) across the Dallas and Houston metropolitan areas. Next, we explain these perceptions through local contextual factors using both bivariate correlations and multivariate regression analysis. Results indicate that perceptions of air quality in the study areas are not significantly correlated with air quality based on readings of air monitoring stations. Instead, perceptions appear to be influenced by setting (urban vs. rural), state identification, access to information, and socioeconomic characteristics such as age, race, and political identification. We discuss the implications of the findings and provide direction on how further research can provide a deeper understanding of the local contextual factors influencing public perceptions.  相似文献