Bayesian multiple change-point estimation for exponential distribution with truncated and censored data

This paper considers the multiple change-point estimation for exponential distribution with truncated and censored data by Gibbs sampling. After all the missing data of interest is filled in by some sampling methods such as rejection sampling method, the complete-data likelihood function is obtained. The full conditional distributions of all parameters are discussed. The means of Gibbs samples are taken as Bayesian estimations of the parameters. The implementation steps of Gibbs sampling are introduced in detail. Finally random simulation test is developed, and the results show that Bayesian estimations are fairly accurate.     

基于线性插值的贝叶斯Lasso分位数回归及应用

在贝叶斯Lasso分位数回归中,样本似然函数的计算和后验分布的抽样通常难以处理.针对这一问题,文章采用一种基于线性插值的似然函数计算方法,并结合拉普拉斯先验分布,设计出一种新的对后验分布进行抽样的算法.数值模拟结果表明了该方法具有较好的适应性和参数估计准确性.     

Prediction model-based kernel density estimation when group membership is subject to missing

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - The density function is a fundamental concept in data analysis. When a population consists of heterogeneous subjects, it is often of great interest to...     

中缅跨境德昂族的历史记忆与国家认同

跨中缅两国国境线而居的德昂族在传统社会框架下为了本民族生存和发展建构了早期共同历史记忆.近代以来,中缅德昂族早期共同历史记忆出现了差异,究其原因,主要与现代国家确认、现代国际社会框架和自我建构相关.因此,早期历史记忆研究应该关注传统社会框架和自我建构的互动;历史记忆的当代重构应该关注现代国家、现代国际社会框架和自我建构三者的关系.国家认同差异并不妨碍中缅德昂族民心相通,德昂族将对"一带一路"发挥积极作用.     

Discrete parallel machine makespan ScheLoc problem

Scheduling–Location (ScheLoc) problems integrate the separate fields of scheduling and location problems. In ScheLoc problems the objective is to find locations for the machines and a schedule for each machine subject to some production and location constraints such that some scheduling objective is minimized. In this paper we consider the discrete parallel machine makespan ScheLoc problem where the set of possible machine locations is discrete and a set of n jobs has to be taken to the machines and processed such that the makespan is minimized. Since the separate location and scheduling problem are both \(\mathcal {NP}\)-hard, so is the corresponding ScheLoc problem. Therefore, we propose an integer programming formulation and different versions of clustering heuristics, where jobs are split into clusters and each cluster is assigned to one of the possible machine locations. Since the IP formulation can only be solved for small scale instances we propose several lower bounds to measure the quality of the clustering heuristics. Extensive computational tests show the efficiency of the heuristics.     

Two-agent scheduling of time-dependent jobs

We consider the problem of scheduling deteriorating jobs or shortening jobs with two agents A and B. We are interested in generating all Pareto-optimal schedules for the two criteria: (1) the total completion time of the jobs in A and the maximum cost of the jobs in B, and (2) the maximum cost of the jobs in A and the maximum cost of the jobs in B. We show that all Pareto-optimal schedules for both problems can be generated in polynomial time, whether the jobs are deteriorating or shortening.     

略论高等教育的大众化和现代化

高等教育大众化是由美国马丁.特罗教授提出的概念和理论,高等教育现代化是评价发展水平的一个基本概念,文章对这两个概念及理论进行了详细的讨论,同时分析了一些国家在高等教育大众化与现代化发展方面的状况,在此基础上对我国高等教育的发展作了简单的评价,提出了实现高等教育大众化和现代化发展的若干问题和建议。     

城乡迁移与精神健康:基于上海的实证研究

改革开放以来,中国见证了规模甚巨的城乡迁移运动,社会学界对这一现象进行了广泛的研究,但对进入城市的移民的精神健康问题则少有涉及。本研究基于对上海城乡迁移群体的多阶段抽样调查以了解这一群体的精神健康状况。问卷的分析结果显示,25%的男性和6%的女性精神健康状态不好。进一步的路径分析显示,移民压力、社会支持和迁移意义以不同的路径影响精神健康。论文建议政府和社会各界要充分回应移民群体的精神健康需求。     

与自然关系的价值论追问——兼论自然的价值与人性

人与自然的价值关系是以人性为基础展开的,自然的价值是基于人性而被发现的,自然的生态价值在根本上影响与制约着人类的存在和发展。正确处理人之自然需要的无限性与自然工具价值的有限性之间的矛盾成为一种必要。人类作为人类与自然关系中的惟一能动者,必须肩负起保护自然的责任与义务,善待自然,构建符合全面、协调、可持续发展的人本生态价值关系。     

新时期广州城市交通改善策略纲领刍议

国家中心城市的定位和缓解城市交通拥堵的迫切需要要求广州在新的历史时期,提出针对性强的交通改善策略纲领,建立起与国家中心城市地位相适应的城市交通环境。通过运行现状的调研,深入分析城市交通运行内在规律,本文系统地制定了交通与土地利用协调发展、交通方式统筹发展、交通管理智能发展等三个方面的改善策略。