论“中国梦”的包容性

“中国梦”作为当代中国实践和当前诸多因素发展形成的中国特色社会主义道路的新篇章,它以爱国主义为核心,以民族精神为根基,是凝聚中国人民共识的梦,是我国科学指导思想的新发展。从“中国梦”的内涵出发,它包含着梦想与现实的统一,历史与发展的统一,国家梦想与个人梦想的统一,阐述“中国梦”对个人、民族和国家的深刻影响,从“中国梦”使人们坚定了追求理想的信念、化解了社会矛盾和支撑着民族长期发展三个方面论证“中国梦”的包容性。     

论商业信用投融资决策

商业信用对提供者而言是一种投资活动 ,对接受者来说是一种融资活动。商业信用作为企业间相互融通资金的一种重要手段 ,其在为企业带来利益的同时 ,也需企业付出一定的代价。所以企业在采用商业信用投融资时需根据成本—效益原则进行决策     

Nonparametric Trend Estimation for Periodic Autoregressive Time Series

A periodically stationary time series has seasonal variances. A local linear trend estimation is proposed to accommodate unequal variances. A comparison of this proposed estimator with the estimator commonly used for a stationary time series is provided. The optimal bandwidth selection for this new trend estimator is discussed.     

A Bayesian Meta-Modeling Approach for Gaussian Stochastic Process Models Using a Non Informative Prior

In this article, an efficient Bayesian meta-modeling approach is proposed for Gaussian stochastic process models in computer experiments. Different prior densities and particularly, a non informative hyper prior have been employed on the parameters involved in the correlation matrix. And the estimation of related parameters is obtained by the expectation-maximization algorithm. Compared with the recent work of Li and Sudjianto (2005 Li , R. , Sudjianto , A. ( 2005 ). Analysis of computer experiments using penalized likelihood in Kriging models . Technometrics 47 : 111 – 120 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the proposed approach is not only of higher prediction accuracy but also of lower computational cost, due to the utilization of the non informative prior and the absence of tuning parameters. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach yields state-of-the-art performance.     

Slope-rotatable designs with equal maximum directional variance for second order response surface models

The concept of sloperotaiability with equal maximum directional vari ance for second order response surface models is introduced as a new design property. This requires that the maximum variance of the estimated slope over all possible directions be only a function of p, which is the distance from the design originif is shown that a rotatable design satisfies this property Also, minimization of tiie maximum variance of the estimated slope over all possible directions is proposed as a new design optirnality criterion, and op¬timal designs are called slope-directional minirnax designs. For the class of cquiradial designs, the slope-directional minirnax designs are compared with D— optimal designs.     

A likelihood ratio test for goodness‐of‐fit of recessive and dominant models for case–control studies

Testing goodness‐of‐fit of commonly used genetic models is of critical importance in many applications including association studies and testing for departure from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Case–control design has become widely used in population genetics and genetic epidemiology, thus it is of interest to develop powerful goodness‐of‐fit tests for genetic models using case–control data. This paper develops a likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing recessive and dominant models for case–control studies. The LRT statistic has a closed‐form formula with a simple $\chi^{2}(1)$ null asymptotic distribution, thus its implementation is easy even for genome‐wide association studies. Moreover, it has the same power and optimality as when the disease prevalence is known in the population. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 341–352; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Active Ageing Index in Korea – Comparison with China and EU countries

The evidence‐based policymaking relies on the use and robustness of the available data. Many conceptual and operational difficulties restrict this process, not least in making use of evidence to identify policy priorities. The Active Ageing Index (AAI), developed originally for the 28 European Union countries, offers a strong motivation in this respect. This paper reports on the development of the AAI for Korea, a country where speed and level of population aging is among the highest in the world. Drawing on the comparative analysis of the AAI results for Korea, China, and European countries, we find that Korea's AAI (35.3) is higher than the average of the AAI for all EU countries (33.9) but lower than China (37.3). Fitting Korea into the overall ranking with the EU countries and China (ranked 7), Korea is ranked 11, just behind Germany (10). The AAI results in Korea show that the employment domain performs extremely well compared with the EU countries, but other domains, especially “Social participation” and “Independent, healthy and secure living,” are achieving less favorable outcomes. High employment among the current cohorts of older workers in Korea can be attributed largely to the constraints of low pension income status.     

Let's Call it Quits: Break‐Even Effects in the Decision to Stop Taking Risks

“Chasing” behavior, whereby individuals, driven by a desire to break even, continue a risky activity (RA) despite incurring large losses, is a commonly observed phenomenon. We examine whether the desire to break even plays a wider role in decisions to stop engaging in financially motivated RA in a naturalistic setting. We test hypotheses, motivated by this research question, using a large data set: 707,152 transactions of 5,379 individual financial market spread traders between September 2004 and April 2013. The results indicate strong effects of changes in wealth around the break‐even point on the decision to cease an RA. An important mediating factor was the individual's historical long‐term performance. Those with a more profitable trading history were less affected by a fall in cash balance below the break‐even point compared to those who had been less profitable. We observe that break‐even points play an important role in the decision of nonpathological risk takers to stop RAs. It is possible, therefore, that these nonpathological cognitive processes, when occurring in extrema, may result in pathological gambling behavior such as “chasing.” Our data set focuses on RAs in financial markets and, consequently, we discuss the implications for institutions and regulators in the effective management of risk taking in markets. We also suggest that there may be a need to consider carefully the nature and role of “break‐even points” associated with a broader range of nonfinancially‐focused risk‐taking activities, such as smoking and substance abuse.     

现代化与现代女性人格的塑造

现代化归根到底是现代人的心理和人格的外化。在中国社会走向现代化的过程中 ,沉重的传统伦理道德仍然阻碍着女性的真正解放 ,甚至根植于女性人格心理。因此 ,在现代文明大潮中 ,中国女性摒弃旧传统的心灵负载 ,塑造现代女性人格 ,不仅对女性的进步与发展 ,而且对中国现代化将产生深远影响。     

南京市基层卫生人力资源的配置与公平性研究

目的：探讨南京市社区卫生人力资源配置的发展情况和公平性,为重塑新医改背景下的社区卫生服务机构定位提供政策建议。方法：以南京市2011—2014年城市社区卫生工作年报和《南京市卫生统计年鉴》为基础,从社区卫生服务人力数量、学历、职称、医护比、全科医生数量等方面分析南京市社区卫生人力配置发展情况,并运用基尼系数法对南京市社区卫生人力资源配置的公平性进行评估。结果：南京市社区卫生机构卫技人员专业素质不高,医护比例不合理,全科医生数量少且有逐年减少趋势,人力资源按人口分布相对公平,各行政区之间有差异。结论：创新社区卫生人才培养模式,采取有效措施增加社区卫生服务机构的护士数量,健全全科医生人才的培养和培训制度。