Bayesian inference for dynamic social network data

We consider a continuous-time model for the evolution of social networks. A social network is here conceived as a (di-) graph on a set of vertices, representing actors, and the changes of interest are creation and disappearance over time of (arcs) edges in the graph. Hence we model a collection of random edge indicators that are not, in general, independent. We explicitly model the interdependencies between edge indicators that arise from interaction between social entities. A Markov chain is defined in terms of an embedded chain with holding times and transition probabilities. Data are observed at fixed points in time and hence we are not able to observe the embedded chain directly. Introducing a prior distribution for the parameters we may implement an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posterior distribution of the parameters by simulating the evolution of the embedded process between observations.     

NOTE ON POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION FOR NORMAL EQUICORRELATED DATA

For normal homoscedastic equicorrelated data the parameters μ, σ and p are identifiable, but it is shown that no consistent estimators exist. Confidence intervals for μ and prediction intervals with known confidence coefficients can, however, be obtained.     

对高校人文社科专业开设高等数学课程的再思考

随着信息时代的发展,数学与社会科学之间的联系越来越密切,但目前一些高校的人文社科专业尚未开设高等数学课程.针对新时期高校全面实施素质教育的要求以及高校人文社科专业的教育现状,认为高等学校人文社科专业必须开设高等数学课程.在人文社科专业的数学教育中,应该注重培养学生学习数学的兴趣,注重数学思想的渗透,注意数学语言的形象生动性以及多媒体技术的运用等等.     

WHO'S PUBLISHING IN JMFT? AN EXAMINATION OF AUTHOR CHARACTERISTICS

This article examines the gender, setting, and degree of the first authors of published articles in JMFT from 1990 to 1995. Findings reveal that men are the first authors of 67% of the articles and women, 33%. PhDs are first authors on 58% of the articles, and authors in university settings write 53% of the published articles. Thirty-nine percent of the articles published during this period were research; 26%, clinical; 16%, theory; and 14%, training. Surprising findings were that MSW authors had a higher acceptance rate than PhDs, and authors in training institutes had a higher acceptance rate than those in university settings.     

数控系统的抗干扰技术

本文从提高数控系统的可靠性出发，阐述了数控系统抗干扰设计的必要性。具体讨论了数控系统中一些实用而有效的抗干扰技术。     

The Evolution of Organizations: Suggestions from Complexity Theory About the Interplay Between Natural Selection and Adaptation

There has been much debate in the managementliterature between neo-Darwinists (who believe in thenatural selection of populations of organizations) andadaptationists (who contend that changes in organization structure and behavior occur in response to theenvironment). The general thesis of neo-Darwinism isthat species are blindly selected for survival by theenvironment. The latest empirical support for the dominant neo-Darwinism perspective adopted bymost biologists is based primarily on the experimentsconducted by Salvador Luria who claims to haveconclusively demonstrated that genes mutate randomly.Recently, however, biologists have re-examined Luria sresearch methods and, after replications of hisexperiments, now question some aspects of the validityof his results. Moreover, there is now new researchwhich provides support for the earlier adaptationistposition, namely, the existence of evolutionary driversand directors existing within self-organizing systems.Of particular importance to the present study is the experimental indication thatself-organizing systems play a conscious role in theirown evolution. We propose that similar mechanisms orprocesses operate in organizational adaptation, thuspointing toward a theoretical modification ofneo-Darwinism that embraces both adaptation and naturalselection in a general, unified theory.     

Changes in Income Concentration: Taxes or Macroeconomic Conditions?

We examine the relative importance of tax rates and macroeconomic fluctuations in explaining the share of national adjusted gross income (AGI) reported by the top 0.5% of all taxpayers. Results indicate that cutting the top income or capital gains tax rate would increase the top AGI share but not by enough to increase revenues. The preponderance of evidence suggests that the top AGI share is affected more by the capital gains tax rate than by the income tax rate but that real gross domestic product fluctuations have even larger effects.     

Estimation of regression models with equi-correlated responses when some observations on the response variable are missing

The present article deals with the problem of estimation of parameters in a linear regression model when some data on response variable is missing and the responses are equi-correlated. The ordinary least squares and optimal homogeneous predictors are employed to find the imputed values of missing observations. Their efficiency properties are analyzed using the small disturbances asymptotic theory. The estimation of regression coefficients using these imputed values is also considered and a comparison of estimators is presented.     

司马迁的忧患意识及其消解

司马迁的《史记》笼罩着浓厚的忧患意识。李陵之祸、忧生之嗟、忧天下史文之不传是司马迁的忧患意识产生的根源 ,卓越的历史学识是司马迁忧患意识产生的思想基础。因此 ,司马迁的忧患意识既是个体的 ,也是社会性的 ,更主要是对文化教育的忧患。发愤修史消解了他的忧患意识 ,忧患意识也消解了他的悲愤屈辱意识。