Partner Choice and the Differential Retreat From Marriage

The contemporary retreat from marriage in the United States has had a differential impact across socioeconomic and racial groups. Here, 1990 marriage rates and propensities for Virginia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are analyzed regarding (a) the likelihood that persons in different groups ever marry and (b) patterns of partner choice with respect to race and educational level. Marriage remains strong in most race‐education groups but is substantially lower among Blacks and among those with less than 12 years of education. Patterns of partner choice have shifted to show greater symmetry between the educational levels of brides and grooms. Changes have been modest with regard to the level and pattern of interracial (Black‐White) marriage. Marriage is increasingly a union of equals, but a union chosen more by Whites than by Blacks and more by the well educated than by the poorly educated.     

20世纪40年代四川省新县制下地方自治的施行

本文探讨了 2 0世纪 4 0年代四川省新县制下的基层社会控制及民主的实际状况 ,指出四川省在当时所推行的基层地方自治仍未摆脱受行政控制的从属地位 ,行政工作先于、多于自治工作 ,“民意机构”非民众直接选举产生并且多反映地方有力者的意志 ,它在解决民众最感痛苦的诸如“摊筹派募”、“征丁”以及“吏治腐败”等问题上的作用十分有限。国民政府在基层所实行的“以官治求自治”的所谓地方自治政策 ,非但未能发展地方事业 ,反而从根本上动摇了其统治基础     

“数字鸿沟”：当代社会阶层分析的新视角*

当代社会，随着信息技术的发展以及信息重要性的增强，以互联网等为基础的电子信息网络已经浸透于社会的各个领域之中，在产业、经济和社会中生成着一种新的信息场域，影响着人们的社会生活。本文从社会阶层的研究视角出发，透过“现代——后现代”的二维分析模式对信息及信息技术带来的“数字鸿沟”现象进行理论上的阐释，对其究竟是实现着“阶层化”还是“去阶层化”进行探讨，并对信息化高度发达的日本社会进行了“数字鸿沟”的实证分析。可以看出：信息、信息技术已经成为一种新的变量，并与社会阶层之间产生着密切的关系，重塑着社会阶层化机制。     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.     

两种财产权的均衡--一种宪政隐喻的研究

在某种意义上,“公共财产神圣不可侵犯”的宪法宣言彰显了社会主义对资本主义的批判;“私有财产权不可侵犯”的神圣入宪隐喻了宪政的理性。私有财产权与公有财产权的均衡宪制是一种“社会能量守恒定律”的宪政隐喻。这两种基本财产权的均衡态势既有静态的平衡,也有动态的衡平,并展现为“一明两暗”的对立形态和以人为目的的终极关怀。由于这种均衡态势在各国宪法中展现的侧重点不同,而成为各国形成不同的宪政观念的重要原因之一,这便是宪政的隐喻所在。在三种不同模式的宪法中检讨这一隐喻,为当下解构、建构和创新中国的宪政理念与制度具有重大意义。     

古诗文名句训诂研究

古诗文名句流传甚广，人们对其部分的理解尚有不妥之处。本文择其十者作一辨析。     

Some quantitative concepts of value and utility from a utilitarian point of view

This paper clarifies and interprets some basic quantitative concepts of value, utility and utility function from a utilitarian point of view. First, I discuss the question as to whether value is objective or subjective. I hold that value is subjective and statistical in nature (although from the various subjective values of a certain object a norm can usually be obtained). Second, I emphasize the distinction between use value and exchange value in relation to utility. Third, I propose a law of diminishing incremental interest, which refers to the incremental (marginal) utility of money. Fourth, I identify the utility of money with the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. Fifth, I question the necessity of the usual normalization of utility functions and the restricted linear transformation (and the consequent concept of strategic equivalence). Sixth, I discuss in detail the terminal values and utilities of a utility function from a philosophical rather than mathematical point of view, particularly the boundedness of a utility function and the magnitudes of V ₀ and U ₀. Finally, I conclude that, in order to be able to have interpersonal comparisons of utility, utility should have the same dimension as value rather than no dimension, and the normalization problem should be reconsidered in the light of terminal values and utilities.     

系统科学在大型技术装备项目中的应用

本文论述了系统科学的理论和方法在大型技术装备项目管理中的应用和发展,着重介绍了项目规划的方案优选和项目管理组织体系、计划控制系统,质量控制系统、项目管理信息系统。从这个项目管理系统的总体看,随着加工的进展,系统内信息不断扩大和加深,形成生产管理信息回路,而且采用人-机结合的信息网络,为配合项目管理发挥了重要作用。     

丝绸之路艺术史纲(上)

丝绸之路艺术以多样的形态、丰赡的成果及相互交融的复杂关系,构成了迄今为止涵盖面最大、延续时间最长的人类艺术现象,具有建构丝绸之路艺术史的基础和依据。丝绸之路艺术史的建构,或许会触动世界艺术史的重写,将可能影响世界艺术史观,反思并重建世界艺术史的逻辑。在丝绸之路艺术史的建构中,分期断代是绕不开的课题,也是必须克服的难题。笔者尝试从长时期历史特征和阶段性特点着眼,将丝绸之路艺术历史划分为四个时期、七个阶段。文章首先探讨了丝绸之路艺术史撰写的基本问题,继而探赜丝绸之路艺术史第一时期,即丝绸之路艺术史前史,对丝绸之路艺术溯源。     

数字经济与城市群协同发展：基于夜间灯光数据的研究

准确认识数字经济与城市群协同发展的关系,有利于拓展数字经济影响的评估视角,也为发挥数字经济和区域一体化的融合倍增效应提供有益思路。研究发现,数字经济时代城市群辐射带动区域协同发展的步伐正在加快,数据要素跨域流通打破了城市群内部和城市群之间的市场分割,助推城市群边界的有效扩大。数字经济促进城市群协同发展主要通过两个作用机制,一是推动创新主体跨城市跨区域进行合作创新,促进城市协同创新网络发育壮大;二是提升城市空间集中度,增强邻近空间范围内的城市要素集聚能力。数字经济的网络性、跳跃性及外部性特征放大了中心城市对外围城市的辐射带动作用和空间溢出效应,因此构建与数字经济相匹配的区域一体化协调机制和要素统筹配置机制正当其时。