Simple detection of outlying short time series

Sets of relatively short time series arise in many situations. One aspect of their analysis may be the detection of outlying series. We examine the performance of standard normal outlier tests applied to the means, or to simple functions of the means, of AR(1) series, not necessarily of equal lengths. Although unequal lengths of series implies that the means have unequal variances, that are only known approximately, it is shown that nominal significance levels hold good under most circumstances. Thus a standard outlier test can usefully be applied, avoiding the complication of estimating the time series' parameters. The test's power is affected by unequal lengths, being higher when the slippage occurs in one of the longer series     

科学发展观视角下的广西北部湾经济区对外开放新探

广西北部湾经济区对外开放水平仍然比较低是一个不争的事实,广西北部湾经济区要改变这一局面,真正提高广西北部湾经济区对外开放的效能,必须以科学发展观为指导,在广西北部湾经济区的开放战略和定位上进行相应的调整和安排,将经济结构和产业结构的调整有机结合起来,真正处理好对内开放与对外开放的关系、扩大开放程度与加大开发度的关系、扩大开放与维护产业安全的关系、扩大开放中的制度创新与技术创新的关系、扩大开放程度中"引进来"与"走出去"的关系,全面提高开放型经济水平.     

Inference for the measurement of poverty in the presence of a stochastic weighting variable

Empirical applications of poverty measurement often have to deal with a stochastic weighting variable such as household size. Within the framework of a bivariate distribution function defined over income and weight, I derive the limiting distributions of the decomposable poverty measures and of the ordinates of stochastic dominance curves. The poverty line is allowed to depend on the income distribution. It is shown how the results can be used to test hypotheses concerning changes in poverty. The inference procedures are briefly illustrated using Belgian data. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Randomized response techniques for complex survey designs

Singh et al. ([13]) pointed out that the Randomized response (RR) technique proposed by Moors ([9]) is not desirable because it fails to protect the confidentiality of the respondents and they provided two alternative strategies free from the above drawback but limited to SRSWOR sampling only. In this paper, generalization of one of the strategies is provided for complex survey designs, wider class of estimators and for quantitative characteristics. Relative efficiency of the modified strategy is tested through empirical investigations. An erratum to this article is available at .     

人大代表对公民意识的影响

民主政治与公民意识关联互动,在这种互动中,精英分子有着重要的影响。在人民代表大会制度中,人大代表理应是民主政治的精英分子,他们的意识和行为对公民意识的影响不容忽视,因此要提高人大代表的素质,强化这种影响。     

广西北部湾经济区打造增长新一极优势依托分析

优势依托理论演进表明,经济的又好又快增长取决于综合优势的发挥,而综合优势的发挥更意味着在发挥比较优势的基础上,一要改进交易效率(如制度创新),二要提高竞争优势(首先是技术创新、其次才是产业升级)。因此,广西北部湾经济区打造经济增长新一极绝不能再走我国沿海发达地区曾经走过的路子,即绝不能再采用那种依赖资源禀赋比较优势的粗放的代工增长模式,只能采用依托于综合优势的新增长模式。     

提高企业家物质激励水平的理论思考

企业家作为社会阶层一特殊群体,必须取得与其业绩相对应的报酬。文章试图从委托-代理理论、人力资本理论、新古典经济增长理论和能力本位制理论等视角分析提高企业家物质激励现有水平的必要性。     

新时期我国零售业发展特点及政策建议

加入WTO以来,伴随我国经济的持续增长、对外开放的不断扩大和居民消费水平的提高,我国零售业在规模、结构、效益、经营和管理水平等方面都上了一个新台阶,但同时也面临来自外资零售企业的竞争压力和行业内现存的发展模式粗放、企业核心竞争力低、规范化程度低、人才短缺等问题,客观上要求必须从财政、税收、技术、人才等方面加快完善零售业发展的政策环境,为零售业的发展创造良好的条件。