Exit or Voice? The Recent Drivers of Kosovar Out‐migration

A remarkable out‐migration from Kosovo occurred after the winter 2014/15, raising urgent questions about its underlying drivers and implications for both Kosovo and the destination countries. This article aims at providing a better understanding of key migration triggers and some particularities of the phenomenon. We link our empirically found migration drivers to Hirschman's ( 1970 ) famous exit, voice or loyalty scheme by asking in how far the exit must be understood as the explicit alternative to voicing dissatisfaction with the current situation in the country. According to our results, the recent Kosovar out‐migration is a clear response to weak governance and thus goes beyond the widespread ‘migration‐cum‐remittances’ livelihood practice. In this sense it could be interpreted as a revolt against the political system. With view to policy implications for destination countries, we point at legal travel and migration opportunities as the better solution to channel both voice and exit.     

一道全国大学生数学竞赛证明题的推广

本文从一道全国大学生数学竞赛证明题出发,通过综合应用数学分析中的有关定理将题目中的结论进行了一般化的推广,并阐述了其几何意义.     

How Similar Are Cohabitation and Marriage? Legal Approaches to Cohabitation across Western Europe

Although cohabitation and childbearing within cohabitation have increased in Europe over recent decades, the variation across Europe remains remarkably wide. Most studies on union formation have not explicitly addressed the role of state policies in the development of cohabitation or discussed how countries have responded to changes in union formation by passing legislation. Here we discuss historical and theoretical issues relevant to the relationship between state policies and union formation and describe policies relating to cohabitation and marriage in nine Western European countries. Drawing on secondary sources and legal documents, we examine the quantity of regulations that mention cohabitation and the approach to cohabitation in 19 policy dimensions. We then place the countries along a continuum, from those that have equalized cohabitation and marriage to those that only regulate marriage. As a whole, this overview raises questions about the changing institution of marriage, as well as the increasing institutionalization of cohabitation.     

Who owns the trauma? A Kleinian perspective on the dialogue between child protection social workers and the media

The present paper makes use of the developmental model of movement between mental positions that was formulated by psychoanalyst Melanie Klein, aimed at understanding the dialogue that takes place between the media and social workers in the field of child welfare, centring around incidents of murder within the family. The basic concept in the paper is that when working with children who are victims of abuse and with their parents, and when reporting on them as well, the feeling of personal control is severely undermined, being associated with the loss of the hallowed social value known as ‘unconditional love of a parent for his child’. The paper illustrates these theoretical ideas by describing two cases that took place in Israel and recommendations are made regarding ways of promoting the dialogue between the professions.     

合理发展:提升中国基础教育质量的新思路

未来中国基础教育质量的提升必须走合理发展之路,满足未来社会发展与人的发展的双重需要。从1986年中国《义务教育法》颁布以后,中国基础教育经历了三个阶段,即普及发展阶段、均衡发展阶段以及以后的合理发展阶段。所谓的合理发展就是符合人的发展之理,具体表现为拒斥蒙昧主义、遵循规律合理性原则;批判现实功利主义,遵循发展合理性原则;抵制浪漫主义,遵循实践合理性原则。合理发展的基本任务是培养目标要照顾社会发展与人的发展的双重需要,人的发展之理意味着学习的意义在于完善自己、发展自己,基础教育实践样态要以"学"为重心。     

Do cultural orientations moderate the relation between Chinese adolescents’ shyness and depressive symptoms? It depends on their academic achievement

We examined the moderating roles of individualistic and collectivistic cultural orientations and academic achievement on the relation between Chinese adolescents’ shyness and depressive symptoms. A sample of Chinese adolescents (N = 492) from an urban school participated in the study during seventh (T1) and eighth (T2) grades. Adolescents self‐reported their shyness, cultural orientations, and depressive symptoms. The school provided records of their academic achievement. Concurrently, shyness and individualism were positively whereas collectivism and academic achievement were negatively, associated with adolescents’ depressive symptoms. Longitudinally, T1 shyness (but not individualism, collectivism, or academic achievement) predicted T2 depressive symptoms after controlling for stability in depressive symptoms. Concurrent relations between shyness and depressive symptoms were moderated by adolescents’ cultural orientations. Specifically, collectivism was protective whereas individualism was harmful, for shy adolescents’ adjustment. Furthermore, collectivism and academic achievement jointly moderated the relations between shyness and depressive symptoms concurrently and longitudinally. The results suggest that cultural orientations may influence shy adolescents’ depression symptoms through individual‐level self‐evaluation, and indicate that cultural factors and academic achievement need to be considered comprehensively for understanding and improving shy Chinese adolescents’ psychological adjustment.     

Estimation of the cumulative incidence function under multiple dependent and independent censoring mechanisms

Competing risks occur in a time-to-event analysis in which a patient can experience one of several types of events. Traditional methods for handling competing risks data presuppose one censoring process, which is assumed to be independent. In a controlled clinical trial, censoring can occur for several reasons: some independent, others dependent. We propose an estimator of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of both independent and dependent censoring mechanisms. We rely on semi-parametric theory to derive an augmented inverse probability of censoring weighted (AIPCW) estimator. We demonstrate the efficiency gained when using the AIPCW estimator compared to a non-augmented estimator via simulations. We then apply our method to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three anti-HIV regimens in a randomized trial conducted by the AIDS Clinical Trial Group, ACTG A5095.     

Development of predictive signatures for treatment selection in precision medicine with survival outcomes

For survival endpoints in subgroup selection, a score conversion model is often used to convert the set of biomarkers for each patient into a univariate score and using the median of the univariate scores to divide the patients into biomarker‐positive and biomarker‐negative subgroups. However, this may lead to bias in patient subgroup identification regarding the 2 issues: (1) treatment is equally effective for all patients and/or there is no subgroup difference; (2) the median value of the univariate scores as a cutoff may be inappropriate if the sizes of the 2 subgroups are differ substantially. We utilize a univariate composite score method to convert the set of patient's candidate biomarkers to a univariate response score. We propose applying the likelihood ratio test (LRT) to assess homogeneity of the sampled patients to address the first issue. In the context of identification of the subgroup of responders in adaptive design to demonstrate improvement of treatment efficacy (adaptive power), we suggest that subgroup selection is carried out if the LRT is significant. For the second issue, we utilize a likelihood‐based change‐point algorithm to find an optimal cutoff. Our simulation study shows that type I error generally is controlled, while the overall adaptive power to detect treatment effects sacrifices approximately 4.5% for the simulation designs considered by performing the LRT; furthermore, the change‐point algorithm outperforms the median cutoff considerably when the subgroup sizes differ substantially.     

The Rules of (Dis)engagement: Black Youth and Their Strategies for Navigating Police Contact

Prior work on youth–police relations examines young people's general perceptions of the police, their differential treatment by police officers, and officers' discretion in dealing with youth. Yet researchers have largely neglected the question of how young people attempt to shape these encounters. I address this critical gap, while also incorporating the experiences of “on track” youth and young women—two groups that are not exempt from police contact but traditionally ignored in the youth–police literature. Drawing on semistructured group and individual interviews with 19 black young people in New York City, I investigate the strategies they employ or subscribe to in navigating police contact. Three types of strategies emerged from my analysis: avoidance, management, and symbolic resistance. Avoidance strategies are marked by young people's attempts to preemptively steer clear of officers on the street. Management strategies are employed by young people during police encounters to limit risk or harm, while symbolic resistance is a subtle tactic used by some youth to preserve their dignity in these interactions. This study also considers the gender differences in respondents' approaches and offers new insights into how they assess their police interactions in an era of highly publicized incidents of police brutality.     

RISK AVERSION AND OVERBIDDING IN FIRST PRICE SEALED BID AUCTIONS: NEW EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

Bidding above the risk‐neutral Nash equilibrium in first price sealed bid auctions has traditionally been ascribed to risk aversion. Later studies, however, offer other explanations and even argue that risk aversion plays no or a minor role. In a novel experimental design, we directly test the relationship between risk aversion and overbidding by systematically varying the distribution of risk attitudes in auction markets. We find a significant relationship between our measure of risk aversion and overbidding. (JEL D44, C91)