Estimating time to detect time trends in continuous cropping

SUMMARY In long-term field trials comparing different sequences of crops and husbandry practices, the identification and understanding of trends in productivity over time is an important issue of sustainable crop production. This paper presents a statistical technique for the estimation of time trends in yield variables of a seasonal annual crop under continuous cropping. The estimation procedure incorporates the correlation structure, which is assumed to follow first-order autocorrelation in the errors that arise over time on the same plot. Because large differences in annual rainfall have a major effect on crop performance, rainfall has been allowed for in the estimation of the time trends. Expressions for the number of years (time) required to detect statistically significant time trends have been obtained. Illustrations are based on a 7-year data set of grain and straw yields from a trial in northern Syria. Although agronomic interpretation is not intended in this paper, the barley yield data indicated that a significant time trend can apparently be detected even in a suboptimal data set of 7 years' duration.     

An alternative estimator for multiple characteristics in PPS sampling

The problem considered relates to large-scale sample surveys. A new estimator of population total for the characteristics that are poorly correlated with the selection probabilities has been developed for the PPSWR sampling scheme. The relative efficiency of the proposed estimator has been studied under a super-population model. A numerical investigation into the performance of the estimator has also been made.     

Human Capital Attainment and Gender Empowerment: The Kerala Paradox*

Objectives. The State of Kerala in southwestern India shows the highest gender development index in the country. Despite having the highest literacy rate and educational achievements of women, the suicide rate among females is very high, and domestic violence committed against women is increasing every year in Kerala. This article attempts to analyze the demographic, social, and cultural changes that are occurring in order to understand this apparent paradox of high human capital attainment and high violence and suicides experienced by women in Kerala. Methods. The study uses data from the Census of India (1991, 2001) , National Crime Records Bureau (1998–2000), and Reproductive and Child Health ( District Level House Hold Survey—2001 ) to analyze trends in crime, violence, and suicide rates, and demographic profiles of the different districts in Kerala. Results. High educational attainment has fostered new aspirations and attitudes among women in Kerala. Yet, societal and cultural norms still dictate that women should be subservient to men both at home and in the labor market. This imbalance often contributes to family violence and suicides in Kerala. Thus, beneath the veil of development lie some disturbing social, cultural, and economic issues that may be contributing to high rates of suicide and family violence in Kerala. Conclusions. This study demonstrates that high educational attainment alone will not promote gender empowerment unless the social and cultural fabric of a country or state ensures equality of women in all areas of life.     

Measuring Accessibility for Inclusive Development: A Census Based Index

State is often involved in the challenging process of judicious allocation and apportioning of resources for an inclusive growth through creating infrastructure and ensuring accessibility- the “ability of the people to reach and engage in opportunities and activities”. The issue at the heart of the debate concerns with the “opportunities” available in a geographic area and the inhabitants’ use of those opportunities in terms of their “behaviour”. The extant literature suggests that the dominant component of the accessibility is mobility infrastructure. The present paper argues that the impact of the human development and the information infrastructure should also be considered. This paper uses the Indian census data of 2001 and develops the methodology for creating an accessibility index for a geographic unit. The paper also discusses the use of the accessibility index (AI) as a tool for evaluating the efficacy of a public policy initiative towards decreasing the exclusion of geographic units. Validation of the tool is done using the patient inflow data at a large charitable hospital in Central India and household level employment data from National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS).     

Are Daughters Like Mothers: Evidence on Intergenerational Educational Mobility Among Young Females in India

Taking data from the ‘India Youth Survey: Situation and Needs’ the paper examines intergenerational educational mobility for young females (vis-à-vis their mothers) in India. The paper uses transition/mobility matrices and mobility measures widely used in the literature on intergenerational mobility for the examination. The overall intergenerational educational mobility among the young females in India is about 0.69 (the upper limit being 1). The upwards component of the overall intergenerational educational mobility is 0.55 (that is, nearly four-fifth of the overall). Also, the intergenerational educational mobility is slightly higher in the ‘Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SC/ST)’ compared to the ‘Other Backward Castes (OBC)’ as well as ‘Others’ castes. But the upward mobility is substantially higher in the ‘Others’ caste group compared to SC/STs. The upward mobility among the OBCs is higher than that of SC/STs but lower than that of the ‘Others’ category. Also, the overall mobility as well as upward mobility is higher in urban areas. Moreover, there are large inter-state variations with the economically and demographically poorer states having substantially lower overall as well as upward mobility than the economically and demographically advanced states.     

On Non-parametric Estimation of the Survival Function with Competing Risks

The non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are derived for survival functions associated with individual risks or system components in a reliability framework. Lifetimes are observed for systems that contain one or more of those components. Analogous to a competing risks model, the system is assumed to fail upon the first instance of any component failure; i.e. the system is configured in series. For any given risk or component type, the asymptotic distribution is shown to depend explicitly on the unknown survival function of the other risks, as well as the censoring distribution. Survival functions with increasing failure rate are investigated as a special case. The order restricted MLE is shown to be consistent under mild assumptions of the underlying component lifetime distributions.     

Bayesian estimation for the Pareto income distribution

The Bayes estimators of the Gini index, the mean income and the proportion of the population living below a prescribed income level are obtained in this paper on the basis of censored income data from a pareto income distribution. The said estimators are obtained under the assumptions of a two-parameter exponential prior distribution and the usual squared error loss function. This work is also extended to the case when the income data are grouped and the exact incomes for the individuals in the population are not available. The method for the assessment of the hyperparameters is also outlined. Finally, the results are generalized for the doubly truncated gamma prior distribution. Now deceased.     

Workers’ Remittances to India: An Examination of Transfer Cost and Efficiency

Regarding the time efficiency of remittance transfer channels to India, the evidence suggests that traditional banking instruments are relatively inefficient as compared to the new information technology‐enabled products. Transfer arrangement of the Indian banks with overseas exchange houses has reduced the settlement cycle and the cost. Both the banks and money transfer operators (MTOs) are able to keep the transaction cycle low through the use of information technology‐enabled formats. Given that the average cost curve of the banks is located to the right of the average cost curve of the MTOs, greater potential exists for the improvement in overall efficiency of the two entities, particularly through the sharing of messaging and the access and disbursement networks to reduce the overhead cost. The estimates of error correction model reveal that the transaction fee and payment infrastructure are significant determinants of remittance flows, underscoring the scope of policy measures in influencing remittance inflows. The estimates indicate that over the medium to long‐term horizon, transaction cost emerges as the most dominant variable explaining the variation in remittances. The payments infrastructure also explains about 10 per cent variation in remittances over the medium‐term. The impulse response analysis further reveals that the favourable shocks to transaction fees and the payments infrastructure cause steady improvement in remittance inflows over the medium‐term horizon, thus underlining the importance of cost and efficiency in affecting the workers’ remittances.