A discrete-time two-sex age-specific stochastic population program incorporating marriage

A discrete-time two-sex stochastic population model is developed. All entities (single males, single females, or couples) are grouped according to their ages, and during a unit time interval, each entity has a choice of several outcomes with fixed conditional probabilities. The model assumes that the number of marriages between men aged x and women aged y is equal to the minimum of the number of men aged x desiring marriage with a woman aged y and the number of women aged y desiring marriage with a man aged x. It follows that if a large excess of males of a11 ages is maintained in the population, the female component grows as a multi-type Galton-Watson process. Under such circumstances, the females have perfect freedom in their choice of marriage partner, and the use of a multi-type Galton-Watson process is very realistic. The same result is true for the male component of the population. Ir there are no males (or females) , no marriages take place, so the model is realistic on this score also. A complex computer program is described, and a detailed numerical example given.     

Premarital pregnancies and out-of-wedlock births in denmark, 1950–65

Although comprehensive investigation of child spacing patterns requires consideration of those births that were conceived before marriage, detailed data on such births often are not available, especially in the United States. Danish statistics on first births by duration of marriage and on out-of-wedlock births permit evaluation of trends in premarital pregnancies. For the period 1950-65, they point to (1) a rise in the percentage of all brides who are pregnant at marriage; (2) an increase in the proportion of first births occurring within both six and nine months of marriage; and (3) a rise in out-of-wedlock births.The trend for the country as a whole also characterizes Copenhagen, but at a higher level, and this reflects the capital's more urban character, greater permissiveness, and attraction to young migrants. Age differentials indicate that as high as 90 percent of all first births among married women aged under 20 years and over 50 percent of those to women aged 20-24 years are premaritally conceived. The rise in the number of first births among young women largely accounts for the overall rise in the level of premarital conceptions. Compared to its suburbs, Copenhagen in 1965 had higher levels of premarital conceptions. The overall residential differential stems both from higher proportions of such births in all age groups in Copenhagen (but especially those aged 20 years and over) and from the fact that Copenhagen has proportionally more first births occurrinq to women aged under 20 years, the age group in which the rates of premarital conceptions are especially high.     

The relationship between childhood abuse and suicidality in adult bipolar disorder

This study evaluates the effect of childhood sexual and physical abuse on suicidality in adults with bipolar disorder. We conducted a retrospective chart review of adult outpatients (N= 381) with DSM-IV-TR-defined bipolar disorder seeking evaluation and treatment at an academic specialty research program (i.e., Mood Disorders Pharmacology Unit, University Health Network, University of Toronto) between October 2002 and November 2005. Eighteen percent (n = 68) of adult patients with bipolar disorder had a recorded history of childhood abuse (p = 0.009). Sixty-three percent (n = 43) of bipolar patients with a history of childhood abuse reported lifetime suicidality (chi2 = 6.885, df= 1, p = 0.009). Logistic regression analysis indicated that Childhood abuse was a significant predictor of lifetime suicidality in adult bipolar patients (OR = 2.05, CI = 1.19-3.510). Childhood abuse is associated with suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in adults with bipolar disorder. Anamnestic inquiry regarding childhood maltreatment is salient to risk assessment, illness management planning, preventative strategies, and treatment interventions in bipolar disorder.     

Comment on basic structure of the asymptotic theory in dynamic nonlinear econometric models

In this paper we compare the performance of the exogeneity tests of Revankar, Revankar and Hartley and Wu-Hausman for the cases of two and three included endogenous variables. The distribution and power functions are evaluated using the conditional distributions given in Kariya and Hodoshima. Our results indicate that the Revankar's test is the most powerful for large values of the concentration parameter and the Revankar and Hartley test is the most powerful for small values of the concentration parameter.     

Associations between hope and trajectories of critical consciousness among U.S. youth of color

We examined associations between hope as an internal asset that supports positive youth development, and growth trajectories of three critical consciousness components. Using five waves of data collected over the course of high school (N = 618), we modeled growth trajectories of awareness of inequity (critical reflection), a sense of agency about taking sociopolitical action (critical agency), and behaviors targeting systems of oppression (critical action). Hope was highest among those with high trajectories of critical agency and critical action. Clear associations with hope emerged at the last time point for critical reflection, suggesting that sustained growth in critical reflection is associated with hope. When supporting the critical consciousness development of youth of color, concurrent support for hope may be instrumental.