Minimum variance unbiased estimation based on bootstrap iterations

Practical computation of the minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE) is often a difficult, if not impossible, task, even though general theory assures its existence under regularity conditions. We propose a new approach based on iterative bootstrap bias correction of the maximum likelihood estimator to accurately approximate the MVUE. Viewing bootstrap iteration as a Markov process, we develop a computational algorithm for bias correction based on arbitrarily many bootstrap iterations. The algorithm, when applied parametrically to finite sample spaces, does not involve Monte Carlo simulation. For infinite sample spaces, a nonparametric version of the algorithm is combined with a preliminary round of Monte Carlo simulation to yield an approximate MVUE. Both algorithms are computationally more efficient and stable than conventional simulation-based bootstrap iterations. Examples are given of both finite and infinite sample spaces to illustrate the effectiveness of our new approach. Supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. HKU 7026/97P).     

Happiness surveys: Some comparability issues and an exploratory survey based on just perceivable increments

Most questionnaires to obtain reports of happiness are primitive with the results obtained of low (interpersonal) comparability. This paper argues that happiness is intrinsically cardinally measurable and comparable though with many difficulties. Moreover, a sophisticated questionnaire was developed and used to obtain more accurate and interpersonally comparable reports of happiness based on the concept of just perceivable increments of pleasure/pain. Comparisons with the traditional questionnaire are also made (by the respondents) to show the superiority of the sophisticated questionnaire.     

From preference to happiness: Towards a more complete welfare economics

Welfare economics is incomplete as it analyzes preference without going on to analyze welfare (or happiness) which is the ultimate objective. Preference and welfare may differ due to imperfect knowledge, imperfect rationality, and/or a concern for the welfare of others (non-affective altruism). Imperfection in knowledge and rationality has a biological basis and the resulting accumulation instinct amplifies with advertising-fostered consumerism to result in a systematic materialistic bias, as supported by recent evidence on happiness and quality of life. Such a bias, in combination with relative-income effects, environmental disruption effects, and over-estimation of the excess burden of taxation, results in the over-spending on private consumption and under-provision of public goods, and may make economic growth welfare-reducing. A cost-benefit analysis aiming even just at preference maximization should offset the excess burden of financing for public projects by the indirect effect through the relative-income effect and by the environmental disruption effect. A cost-benefit analysis aiming at welfare maximization should, in addition, adjust the marginal consumption benefits of public projects upward by a proportion determined by the proportionate excess of marginal utility over marginal welfare of consumption. The environmental disruption effects have also to be similarly adjusted upward. However, the productive contributions of public projects should not be so adjusted.  Welfare economics has achieved much, though still with long-standing weaknesses (e.g., the inability to make non-Pareto comparisons due to the unwillingness or difficulties in making interpersonal comparisons of cardinal utilities). It is not the intention of this paper either to survey the achievements or to remedy the weaknesses. Rather, it is argued that welfare economics is too narrow in focus and should be expanded in a number of aspects to make the analysis more complete and hence more useful. Some of the aspects discussed below have long been known but largely ignored in welfare economic analysis. Some are less well known and controversial points which are nevertheless important for welfare. Received: 22 January 2001/Accepted: 3 April 2002 This paper is revised from the keynote paper of the same title at the Conference on `Economics and the Pursuit of Happiness', Nuffield College, Oxford 2000, and combined with the paper `Towards a welfarist cost-benefit analysis' presented at American Economic Association Meeting, New Orleans, 2001. The paper was revised during my visit to the Division of Applied Economics, Nanyang University, Singapore. I am also grateful to Maurice Salles and two anonymous referees of this journal for helpful comments.     

Predictors of strike voting behavior: The case of university faculty

This study examines the impact of demographic characteristics, job variables, and attitudinal factors on the strike voting behavior of faculty members at a Canadian university. The results show that married faculty members and those from single-income households were more inclined to vote against the strike. Regarding the attitudinal factors, faculty members who were satisfied with existing research facilities and were loyal to the Faculty Association were likely to favor the strike, whereas faculty who were satisfied with working conditions and with the university administration were opposed to the strike. Beliefs about unions, however, did not appear to have an influence on voting behavior. The author thanks J. Dart, A. Dastmalchian, R. Long, D. Maki, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

Utilitarianism and interpersonal comparison

Beliefs in the impossibility of interpersonal comparison of welfare and the unacceptability of utilitarianism are based on a non-materialist solution to the theory of mind, i.e. on the existence of a soul. The compellingness of the theory of evolution and some discoveries in brain sciences render (philosophical) materialism very persuasive. The acceptance of materialism implies the negation of free will, non-significance of the self (no substantial reason to care much more about the welfare of one's own future self than the welfare of others), possibility of interpersonal comparison of welfare, compellingness of utilitarianism, and the possibility of conscious machines. Searle's argument on the impossibility of rigorous social sciences is however rejected.I am grateful to Dennis Mueller and Aubrey Townsend for commenting on the first draft.     

A comparison of two large sample confidence intervals for a proportion: A Monte Carlo simulation

SUMMARY Two pairs of confidence intervals for a proportion, similar to that of Larson, are compared. It can be shown through computer simulation experiments that, for certain values of p, the confidence interval obtained by the approximation is superior.     

ANALYSIS OF VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF SHIFTS IN MEAN

This paper considers the implications of mean shifts in a multivariate setting. It is shown that under the additive outlier type mean shift specification, the intercept in each equation of the vector autoregression (VAR) will be subject to multiple shifts when the break dates of the mean shifts to the univariate series do not coincide. Conversely, under the innovative outlier type mean shift specification, both the univariate and the multivariate time series are subject to multiple shifts when mean shifts to the innovation processes occur at different dates. We consider two procedures, the first removes the shifts series by series before forming the VAR, and the second removes intercept shifts in the VAR directly. The pros and cons of both methods are discussed.     

Judgments about personal identity in childhood and adolescence

Judgments concerning personal identity were studied in children and adolescents. Each subject was asked to imagine entering a hypothetical machine which simultaneously produced two persons, with each person receiving one of four sets of the subject's characteristics: physical, active, social, or psychological. Subjects were asked to judge which of the resulting persons was most nearly identical with the self. Results from the first study with middle-class Americans demonstrated that the social characteristics are most frequently chosen by young adolescents. With age, the physical characteristics were less frequently selected and the psychological characteristics were more often selected. In Study 2, middle-class American children between the ages of 6 to 7 judged the psychological characteristics of self most important in preserving identity, even though their self-concepts as elicited by other methods appeared physicalistic. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for accounts of self-concept development.     

Role of Parent and Peer Relationships and Individual Characteristics in Middle School Children's Behavioral Outcomes in the Face of Community Violence

This study examines processes linking inner‐city community violence exposure to subsequent internalizing and externalizing problems. Hypothesized risk and protective factors from 3 ecological domains—children's parent and peer relationships and individual characteristics—were examined for mediating, moderating, or independent roles in predicting problem behavior among 667 children over 3 years of middle school. Mediation was not found. However, parent and peer variables moderated the association between exposure and internalizing problems. Under high exposure, normally protective factors (e.g., attachment to parents) were less effective in mitigating exposure's effects than under low exposure; attachment to friends was more effective. Individual competence was independently associated with decreased internalizing problems. Variables from all domains, and exposure, were independently associated with externalizing problems. Protective factors (e.g., parent attachment) predicted decreased problems; risk factors (e.g., friends' delinquency) predicted increased problems. Results indicate community violence reduction as essential in averting inner‐city adolescents' poor behavioral outcomes.     

Subjective Residential Environment and its Implications for Quality of Life Among University Students in Hong Kong

This paper reports the results of a convenient sample survey of 500 Hong Kong university students conducted in May 2003. The main aim of the survey was to investigate the respondents perception of the residential environment and its implications for the quality of life (QOL). Results indicated that the respondents were generally satisfied with the residential environment, scoring a mean satisfaction rating of 3.32, on a 5-point Likert scale. The type, size and age of a respondents home, years of occupancy and attending university were found to be significantly related to the overall satisfaction. Transport (4.37), environmental quality (4.30), and public utilities (4.25) were reported to be the most important infrastructures for the QOL, but environmental quality (3.21), education (3.11) and greening (2.98) were considered to be the least satisfactory ones. The desirable distribution of facilities and services was defined by their functions and the new urban designs were appreciated by the respondents. Although available space was less than the ideal and public transport was a serious concern, the respondents had adapted well to the high-density environment and enjoyed the urban life in Hong Kong. It is hoped that the results and findings of this study can provide a reference for the formulation of future development strategy in Hong Kong.