Regression models to dependence for exceedance

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) aims to study the tails of probability distributions in order to measure and quantify extreme events of maximum and minimum. In river flow data, an extreme level of a river may be related to the level of a neighboring river that flows into it. In this type of data, it is very common for flooding of a location to have been caused by a very large flow from an affluent river that is tens or hundreds of kilometers from this location. In this sense, an interesting approach is to consider a conditional model for the estimation of a multivariate model. Inspired by this idea, we propose a Bayesian model to describe the dependence of exceedance between rivers, where we considered a conditionally independent structure. In this model, the dependence between rivers is captured by modeling the excess marginally of one river as a consequence of linear functions of the other rivers. The results showed that there is a strong and positive connection between excesses in one river caused by the excesses of the other rivers.     

Contact between birth parents and children in kinship care in a sample from Spain

Within the context of kinship care, the main objectives of this work are to study the characteristics of contact between foster children and their birth parents, and their relationship with key variables of fostering, the children and their kinship caregivers. The sample included 189 children from Spain and their kinship families. A semi‐structured placement interview and two scales relating to the child–caregiver relationship and child's psychological adjustment were used with the kinship families. The results revealed a significant percentage of foster children who had no family contact. Various visit types, frequencies and durations were described. Kinship care with contact, compared with placements without contact, was frequently characterized by the absence of professional supervision, and an affectionate child–caregiver relationship; moreover, children with contact were perceived to have fewer serious behaviour and socio‐emotional problems and a greater probability of family reunification. The regression analysis showed that the main predictors for how caregivers assessed contact were the children's emotional reaction during visits and the quality of the relationship between the kinship families and the birth parents. These results suggest the need for further research about contact, which will certainly have a major impact on professional intervention with these families.     

The Othering of Muslims: Discourses of Radicalization in the New York Times, 1969–2014

In this article, I engage with Edward Said's Orientalism and various perspectives within the othering paradigm to analyze the emergence and transformation of radicalization discourses in the news media. Employing discourse analysis of 607 New York Times articles from 1969 to 2014, this article demonstrates that radicalization discourses are not new but are the result of complex sociolinguistic and historical developments that cannot be reduced to dominant contemporary understandings of the concept or to singular events or crises. The news articles were then compared to 850 government documents, speeches, and other official communications. The analysis of the data indicates that media conceptualizations of radicalization, which once denoted political and economic differences, have now shifted to overwhelmingly focus on Islam. As such, radicalization discourse now evokes the construct radicalization as symbolic marker of conflict between the West and the East. I also advanced the established notion that the news media employ strategic discursive strategies that contribute to conceptual distinctions that are used to construct Muslims as an “alien other” to the West.     

Marginal models for the association structure of hierarchical binary responses

Clustered binary responses are often found in ecological studies. Data analysis may include modeling the marginal probability response. However, when the association is the main scientific focus, modeling the correlation structure between pairs of responses is the key part of the analysis. Second-order generalized estimating equations (GEE) are established in the literature. Some of them are more efficient in computational terms, especially facing large clusters. Alternating logistic regression (ALR) and orthogonalized residual (ORTH) GEE methods are presented and compared in this paper. Simulation results show a slightly superiority of ALR over ORTH. Marginal probabilities and odds ratios are also estimated and compared in a real ecological study involving a three-level hierarchical clustering. ALR and ORTH models are useful for modeling complex association structure with large cluster sizes.     

INDUCING OVERCONFIDENCE

In this study, I present a theory which explains how the influence of others may generate overconfidence. The argument is built on the idea that the more help an agent receives when performing a task, the less informative the score on that task will be relative to the agent's ability to perform it. If an agent is confident, he tends to benefit from more cooperation opportunities simply because he is likely to be perceived as being more skilled. As a result, he remains confident because the future signals he will observe will contain very little information regarding his ability. On the contrary, if the agent is not confident, he will receive more informative scores, which will help him learn his true ability faster. (JEL D81, D83, D84)     

Ergonomic factors and production target evaluation in eucalyptus timber harvesting operations in mountainous terrains

There are several forest operations involved in Eucalyptus timber harvesting. This study was carried out during brush-cutting; tree felling, bucking, delimbing, piling and manual extraction operations, with the following objectives: a) analyzing, ergonomically, two systems of brush-cutting: one manual and the other semi-mechanized, using two different machines; b) ergonomically evaluating three different brands of pruner machines used in delimbing felled trees. c) determining the feasible target of productivity as a function of ergonomic factors relevant to establish the time of resting pauses for workers in manual and semi-mechanized timber harvesting systems in mountainous terrain. Brush-cutting, either manual or semimechanized, is an activity carried out prior to timber harvesting. It is usually a hard work, with low productivity when compared with mechanized systems. Pruner machines have been used by forest companies, due to the great possibilities to improve productivity, quality and the health of workers. Ergonomics is a discipline that promotes the adequacy of work to the physical and mental characteristics of human beings, seeking to design production systems and products considering relevant aspects, including social, organizational and environmental factors. Companies should consider the ergonomic factor in the determination of daily worker production targets.     

Analysis on the relationship between the school furniture and the work surface lighting and the body posture of public Middle School students from João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of school furniture and work surface lighting on the body posture of two public Middle School students from Paraíba (Brazil). The target population included 8th grade groups involving 31 students. Brazilian standards for lighting levels, the CEBRACE standards for furniture measurements and the Postural Assessment Software (SAPO) for the postural misalignment assay were adopted for the measurements comparison. The statistic analysis includes analyses of parametric and non-parametric correlations. The results show that the students' most affected parts of the body were the spine, the regions of the knees and head and neck and about 90% of the students presented postural misalignment. The lighting levels were usually found below 300 lux, below recommended levels. Such results indicate the need of investments in more suitable school furniture and structural reforms aimed at improving the lighting in the classrooms, which could fulfill the students' profile and reduce their complaints.     

Body postures versus production requirements - the case of a fiberglass parts factory

This study aimed to perform an ergonomic analysis in a fiberglass parts factory. For this purpose, was used the methodology of Ergonomic Work Analysis (EWA). At the end of the study it was possible to identify some ways to the development of improvements in order to contribute to the transformation of working conditions in the sector analyzed.     

The importance of ergonomics in the design conceptual process: Daciano da Costa - a case study on practicing and teaching

This paper, which stems from a developing research project, aims to disseminate among the international scientific community the thought of Daciano da Costa (1930-2005) given the importance he conferred to Ergonomics, throughout his teaching career and his professional practice as a reference figure in the Design of the twentieth century in Portugal. We focus on the important role played by Ergonomics within the conceptual Design process, through the case study Daciano da Costa.What Daciano brought to the practice and teaching was a modernization of processes, a new perspective on the emerging themes of design, like ergonomics. Daciano believed that designing was providing a service. This task was understood as the building of a relationship with users. One of his distinguished features was the particular attention he paid to the unique aspects of the scale of proximity: the scale of the hand, of the immediate gesture, of the body. As a professor he insisted not so much on the end product, but rather on the recognition of the research process and how it was conducted. When designing, developing and supervising the exercises he set, ergonomic factors were one of his main concerns.     

Are cutout handles used when available in real occupational settings? Description of grips and upper extremities movements during industrial box handling

In order to achieve better postures and decrease musculoskeletal risks adequate design of hand/box couplings for manual materials handling (MMH) are still needed. No studies evaluating upper limb movement thorough direct measurements during box handling in workplace were identified in the literature. In this study we describe the types of grip and movements adopted by ten workers when handling redesigned boxes with cutout handles between different heights on industrial pallets. The new handles were used by 90% of the workers through different types of grip. Electrogoniometric measurements showed relatively safe forearm and wrist movements, although elbow inadequate range of movement was recorded. Despite the good acceptance of the cutout by workers, the new design requires extra internal space in the boxes reducing applications for this alternative of box.