The impact of job loss on family dissolution

The impact of involuntary job displacements on the probability of divorce is analysed using discrete duration models. The analysis uses the sample of couples from the British Household Panel Survey and distinguishes between types of displacements. Results show that couples in which the husband experiences a job loss are more likely to divorce. Redundancies have small, positive, often insignificant and short-lived effects while dismissals and temporary job endings have larger positive impacts. This is consistent with the interpretation of redundancies as capturing negative income shocks while other types of job loss also convey new information about potential future earnings and match quality.     

Measuring Regional Performance in the Italian NHS: Are Disparities Decreasing?

Social Indicators Research - Given the regional disparities that historically characterize the Italian context, in this paper we propose a framework to evaluate the regional health care...     

Elderly-technology interaction: accessibility and acceptability of technological devices promoting motor and cognitive training

As the world population is ageing, studies on the socio-economic and health consequences are proliferating. Little has been done on the effectiveness and impact elderly may benefit from the use of technology in their everyday life. The pilot study, implemented within a funded project aimed at identifying sustainable actions to promote Seniors' quality of life, intended to investigate this kind of interaction in terms of accessibility and acceptability that senior citizen experience with technological devices promoting motor and cognitive training. In the hypothesis, interfaces and technological artifacts, that still take in little account the seniors' physical characteristics (e.g. physiological limitations in sight, hearing, movement) and cognitive processes (selective memory often driven by practical needs), can cause elderly to mistrust technology. Study participants were twenty over seventy-year-old people, who were observed and interviewed in context in a two-hour training session regarding the technological devices user experience. The results are presented with scenario-based techniques that help represent typologies of users in different use situations. Findings confirm the hypothesis, highlighting that elderly may accept technological artifacts when they perceive them as bringing benefits in terms of well-being and health.     

Effects of long-acting testosterone undecanoate on bone mineral density in middle-aged men with late-onset hypogonadism and metabolic syndrome: results from a 36 months controlled study

We evaluated the effects of long-term testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) on the bone mineral density (BMD) in obese patients with metabolic syndrome (MS) and late-onset hypogonadism (LOH). Sixty men (mean age 57 ± 10) with low serum testosterone (T < 320 ng/dL) and MS regardless the presence of osteoporosis were enrolled. Forty men received intramuscular T-undecanoate (TU) four times/year for 36 months and 20 age-matched hypogonadal men with MS in whom T treatment was contraindicated were used as controls. Hormonal, biochemical markers, vertebral and femoral BMD by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry were measured. At baseline, overall patients had mild osteopenia (lumbar BMD= 0.891 ± 0.097 g/cm(2); femoral BMD= 0.847 ± 0.117 g/cm(2)). TU induced a significant improvement of bone mass after 36 months (lumbar BMD=1.053 ± 0.145 g/cm(2); p < 0.002; femoral BMD=0.989 ± 0.109; p < 0.003 g/cm(2)) with a 5%/year increase and a significant reduction in hs-CRP without changes in body mass index. A direct relationship between serum T and BMD increments at the lumbar (r(2)?= 0.66, p < 0.0001) and femoral (r(2)?=0.52, p < 0.0001) sites was demonstrated. Study adherence was 50% without serious side effects. Long-term TRT in middle-aged men with LOH and MS determines a significant increase in both vertebral and femoral BMD related to increased serum T levels, probably independently from estradiol modifications.     

Explaining Gender Inequalities That Follow Couple Migration

By exploiting the unique social and economic differences between East and West Germany, the authors investigated how macro‐level opportunities interact with couple‐level decision making to explain gender differences in the determinants and economic outcomes of household migration. By incorporating regional socioeconomic conditions into household bargaining theory, 4 hypotheses for each region were derived. The hypotheses were tested using cross‐classified multilevel regressions and the German Socio‐Economic Panel (1992–2012) combined with regional economic indicators. First, gender‐specific determinants of couples' West–West (i.e., within West Germany) and East‐to‐West migration were analyzed; second, subsequent economic consequences were investigated by comparing couples with singles. The results confirm that gender differences in macro‐conditions can impose decision logics that seemingly contradict the initial power relation within couples. Despite more traditional gender arrangements in West Germany, well‐educated partnered women earn significant absolute and relative income gains from migration; their egalitarian East German counterparts suffer significant losses compared with single women and East German men.     

Some simulations and applications of forecasting long-memory time-series models

In this paper, we show some results of forecasting based on the ARFIMA(p,d,q) and ARIMA(p,d,q) models. We show, by simulation, that the technique of forecasting of the ARIMA(p,d,q) model can also be used when d is fractional, i.e., for the ARFIMA(p,d,q) model. We also conduct a simulation study to compare the two estimators of d obtained through regression methods. They are used in the hypothesis test to decide whether or not the series has long memory property and are compared on the basis of their k-step ahead forecast errors. The properties of long-memory models are also investigated using an actual set of data.     

Maximum entropy simulation for microdata protection

The paper proposes a new disclosure limitation procedure based on simulation. The key feature of the proposal is to protect actual microdata by drawing artificial units from a probability model, that is estimated from the observed data. Such a model is designed to maintain selected characteristics of the empirical distribution, thus providing a partial representation of the latter. The characteristics we focus on are the expected values of a set of functions; these are constrained to be equal to their corresponding sample averages; the simulated data, then, reproduce on average the sample characteristics. If the set of constraints covers the parameters of interest of a user, information loss is controlled for, while, as the model does not preserve individual values, re-identification attempts are impaired-synthetic individuals correspond to actual respondents with very low probability.Disclosure is mainly discussed from the viewpoint of record re-identification. According to this definition, as the pledge for confidentiality only involves the actual respondents, release of synthetic units should in principle rule out the concern for confidentiality.The simulation model is built on the Italian sample from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). The approach can be applied in more generality, and especially suits quantitative traits. The model has a semi-parametric component, based on the maximum entropy principle, and, here, a parametric component, based on regression. The maximum entropy principle is exploited to match data traits; moreover, entropy measures uncertainty of a distribution: its maximisation leads to a distribution which is consistent with the given information but is maximally noncommittal with regard to missing information.Application results reveal that the fixed characteristics are sustained, and other features such as marginal distributions are well represented. Model specification is clearly a major point; related issues are selection of characteristics, goodness of fit and strength of dependence relations.     

Forthcoming in Sociological Forum

Forthcoming in Sociological Forum     

Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions

This paper proposes a regression model where the response is beta distributed using a parameterization of the beta law that is indexed by mean and dispersion parameters. The proposed model is useful for situations where the variable of interest is continuous and restricted to the interval (0, 1) and is related to other variables through a regression structure. The regression parameters of the beta regression model are interpretable in terms of the mean of the response and, when the logit link is used, of an odds ratio, unlike the parameters of a linear regression that employs a transformed response. Estimation is performed by maximum likelihood. We provide closed-form expressions for the score function, for Fisher's information matrix and its inverse. Hypothesis testing is performed using approximations obtained from the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. Some diagnostic measures are introduced. Finally, practical applications that employ real data are presented and discussed.