A simulation study of the operations of a telephone bureau

This paper presents a priority queueing situation: a telephone bureau which has to deal with two distinct classes of caller. The first group are making urgent calls which must be dealt with as soon as possible, while the second group are making a variety of different types of routine enquiry which are not considered to be as important. Management are concerned with a number of issues associated with the operations of their bureau, these include the levels of service offered to the different groups of caller, the effects of different levels of staffing, and the effects of changing the mix of call types. The use of applied probability theory to analyse this situation is briefly discussed, and then simulation proposed as a means to analyse the operations of the bureau. The development of this simulation is outlined, some typical results presented and its usefulness discussed.     

Career Planning in Spain: Do Fixed-term Contracts Delay Marriage and Parenthood?

The aim of this paper is to find an empirical connection between the striking increase in the use of fixed-term contracts in Spain and the observed delay in the age at marriage and maternity. Using the eight waves of individual information from the European Household Panel for Spain, we find that for men, the decision whether to get married is strongly negatively affected by holding unstable contracts or not working, relative to when an indefinite contract is held. However, for women, results suggest that holding fixed-term contracts is not a deterrent for the decision whether to get married. With respect to the decision of whether to enter into parenthood, results indicate that for all childless women, either with no partner, holding fixed-term contracts delays entry into motherhood relative to the holding of indefinite contracts. The discouragement effect is stronger for women with no partner, though.JEL classification: D1, J1     

Rurality Index for Small Areas in Spain

An operational definition for “rural area” is pivotal if proposals, policies and decisions aimed at optimising the distribution of resources, closing the gap on inequity between areas and raising standards of living for the least advantaged populations are to be put in place. The concept of rurality, however, is often based on alternative and conflicting definitions, requiring clarification of the underlying theoretical model. Traditionally a geographical area has been classified as rural by taking into account either the number of inhabitants or population density. Two kinds of problem are raised with this approach, however, namely: it is inherently difficult to describe such a complex concept as rurality with a single variable; and reducing the concept down to a rural/urban dichotomy by setting a non-universal cut-off point does not usually provide an accurate account of reality. Within the context of the rural–urban continuum, this paper has devised a rurality index for Spanish municipalities based on the 1991 Population, Housing and Household Survey. The index was built on a principal components factor analysis, giving rise to a single factor that is correlated to the aging of the population, economic dependency, farming, livestock or fishing-related employment, habitability of housing and population density. A score to each municipality was allocated. This index can be regularly updated thus enabling the progress of the concept of rurality to be monitored in our setting over time and then compared with other countries using the same methods.     

Semiparametric estimator for a secondary analysis with correlated outcomes

ABSTRACT

Researchers are often required to reuse data that have been collected and analyzed for other purposes. Issues may arise if the outcome of this secondary study is related to the outcome of the first study and traditional methods may fail to deliver a consistent estimate. Here we propose a semiparametric approach that takes this correlation into account and produces asymptotically consistent and normally distributed estimates. We discuss its performance through simulations and apply the proposed method to a real dataset.     

The relative performances of improved ridge estimators and an empirical bayes estimator: some monte carlo results

The relative 'performances of improved ridge estimators and an empirical Bayes estimator are studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical Bayes method is seen to perform consistently better in terms of smaller MSE and more accurate empirical coverage than any of the estimators considered here. A bootstrap method is proposed to obtain more reliable estimates of the MSE of ridge esimators. Some theorems on the bootstrap for the ridge estimators are also given and they are used to provide an analytical understanding of the proposed bootstrap procedure. Empirical coverages of the ridge estimators based on the proposed procedure are generally closer to the nominal coverage when compared to their earlier counterparts. In general, except for a few cases, these coverages are still less accurate than the empirical coverages of the empirical Bayes estimator.     

ASTRONOMICS IN ACTION: THE GRADUATE EARNINGS PREMIUM AND THE DRAGON EFFECT IN SINGAPORE

This paper investigates the return to university education in Singapore using a new estimation strategy related to Chinese traditions where children born in the Year of the Dragon are believed to be superior. Because parents might time the arrival of their offspring on a Dragon year, this causes the Dragon cohort to be larger and university entry to be more competitive. First, we find evidence of a negative “Dragon effect” on university educational attainment. Then, using it as an estimation strategy, we find that university education has a ceteris paribus effect of raising earnings by at least 50% on average. (JEL I21, C26, J30)     

Definitions of Need: Can disabled people and care professionals agree?

This paper attempts to examine the ideological frames of reference that inform the definitions of need that are used by disabled and non-disabled people. The main aim of the research upon which this paper is based being to test the degree of congruence of the non-disableds view of need with that of disabled people. Central to this is an exploration of the differences that exist in the perception of disability held by disabled people and nondisabled people. It investigates this through the use of a staged vignette based around a fictitious character (Mr Arthur Angus) and his family. The paper seeks to explore the multidimensional contexts in which individuals operate based upon a deconstruction of the medical/social locus of control model.     

Decompartmentalizing the sociology of activist commitment. A critical survey of some recent trends in French research

This article is a critical survey of a field of research that for 20 years has been particularly active in France and is once again gaining momentum: the sociology of activist commitment. An outcome of this sociological current was the inter-actionist paradigm, i.e. how activists’ careers are embarked upon and evolve. The notion of how to reward activism has been refined and reconsidered. Theoretical debates relating to the surfacing – or not – of “new forms” of activism – or even “new activists” – are replaced in perspective and the two challenges that confront research today stressed. Both concern the social division of labor: how to account more thoroughly for the link between macro-social transformations and individual commitment, on one hand, how organizations are instrumental in formatting activism, on the other.     

Small area estimation of mean price of habitation transaction using time-series and cross-sectional area-level models

In this paper, a new small domain estimator for area-level data is proposed. The proposed estimator is driven by a real problem of estimating the mean price of habitation transaction at a regional level in a European country, using data collected from a longitudinal survey conducted by a national statistical office. At the desired level of inference, it is not possible to provide accurate direct estimates because the sample sizes in these domains are very small. An area-level model with a heterogeneous covariance structure of random effects assists the proposed combined estimator. This model is an extension of a model due to Fay and Herriot [5], but it integrates information across domains and over several periods of time. In addition, a modified method of estimation of variance components for time-series and cross-sectional area-level models is proposed by including the design weights. A Monte Carlo simulation, based on real data, is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison with other estimators frequently used in small area estimation problems. In particular, we compare the performance of these estimators with the estimator based on the Rao–Yu model [23]. The simulation study also accesses the performance of the modified variance component estimators in comparison with the traditional ANOVA method. Simulation results show that the estimators proposed perform better than the other estimators in terms of both precision and bias.     

School-level policies and the efficiency and equity trade-off in education

This paper identifies the relationship between pupils’ Family Background, their mathematics scores, and school-level policies, using the 2012 Programme of International Student Assessment for Italy and multilevel modelling. School-level policies have played a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries, but there is no straightforward empirical evidence for how they affect pupils’ outcomes and the equality of educational outcomes. Our findings show that that only some school policies intensify the Family Background Effect – (educational equity) and affect student outcomes (educational efficiency) simultaneously. We find that competitive schools are able to screen students by selecting higher socio-economic status parents, which mainly harms equity without having much effect on efficiency. There are some policies which allow some trade-off between aforementioned objectives, mainly policies related to management schools.