There is no low-level fertility and development trap

The theory of the low-level equilibrium trap asserts that an increase in income stimulates population growth sufficiently so that the additional people ‘eat up’ the ‘surplus’ over subsistence, and hence drive the level of income back to subsistence. Originally the theory referred primarily to mortality, but nowadays its application is to fertility. In the long-run equilibrium context in which the theory is ordinarily presented, the fact that the long-run elasticity of fertility with respect to income is negative in less developed countries fatally contradicts the accepted version of the trap. But to give every chance for trap theory to be meaningful, the paper presents a period-by-period analysis, embodying larger-than-observed positive elasticities during the early years and the logically necessary counterbalancing negative elasticities during the later years. These elasticities are combined with consumption and production figures for various age groups to estimate the effect in each year after the windfall, and altogether. The results show that even under assumptions not charitable to the conclusion of this paper, additional children do not even come close to ‘eating up’ the increase in income which induced their births, so that the trap theory is falsified.     

Between book and cinema: late Victorian new media

The origins of new media can be located in the late 19th century, in the visual archive of this period. This antecedent of today's new media appeared first within the pages of the printed book and article, and its origin is related to the increasingly database style of organization of print media at this time. The organizational form of the visual archive that appeared within such printed pages, however, can also be connected to developments in the moral sciences, in particular, the investigation by physiologists of the material foundations of both vision and of thought. As both the eye and the brain became part of the same physical model, so the visual archive came to include both the database itself, and its organizational frame, within a single image.     

Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment

We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S. unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods. We find strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold auto-regressive model. Empirical results indicate that, once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate. One finding of particular interest is that shocks that lower the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller effect than shocks that raise the unemployment rate. This finding is consistent with unemployment rises being sudden and falls gradual.     

Estimation of factor-augmented panel regressions with weakly influential factors

The use of factor-augmented panel regressions has become very popular in recent years. Existing methods for such regressions require that the common factors are strong, an assumption that is likely to be mistaken in practice. Motivated by this, the current article offers an analysis of the effect of weak, semi-weak, and semi-strong factors on two of the most popular estimators for factor-augmented regressions, namely, principal components (PC) and common correlated effects (CCE).     

INCENTIVES FOR DISHONESTY: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY WITH INTERNAL AUDITORS

We conduct an experiment with professional internal auditors and evaluate their performance and objectivity, measured as the extent to which they truthfully report the performance of other participants in a real-effort task. In line with our hypotheses, we find that incentive-based compensation increases dishonest behavior: competitive incentives lead to under-reporting of other participants' performance, while collective incentives lead to over-reporting of performance. We replicate these results with a student sample. In addition, we find that moving from an environment with objective performance evaluation toward a peer evaluation scheme reduces performance among internal auditors, but not among students.(JEL C93, M42, M52)     

Meta-analysis using multilevel models with an application to the study of class size effects

Meta-analysis is formulated as a special case of a multilevel (hierarchical data) model in which the highest level is that of the study and the lowest level that of an observation on an individual respondent. Studies can be combined within a single model where the responses occur at different levels of the data hierarchy and efficient estimates are obtained. An example is given from studies of class sizes and achievement in schools, where study data are available at the aggregate level in terms of overall mean values for classes of different sizes, and also at the student level.     

Woodland fragments in urban landscapes are important bat areas: an example of the endangered Bechstein’s bat Myotis bechsteinii

Urban Ecosystems - Urban areas are increasing globally causing fragmentation and loss of habitats for many forest dwelling species. At the same time new habitats are created, which may be exploited...     

Careers and productivity in an internal labor market

This paper contributes to the existing literature by evaluating the effects of age and tenure on careers and productivity within an internal labor market. We use the administrative personnel records of a long balanced panel of blue-collar workers from a manufacturing firm in Germany with a distinct classification of wage groups and unique information on workers’ productivity in form of suggestions for productivity improvement. Using robust locally weighted regression, our main findings suggest that the probability of promotion is highest for younger workers and early in the career. Older workers are less likely to be promoted. The likelihood of making a rewarded suggestion is inversely u-shaped with respect to tenure and age. Furthermore, workers’ ability and firm-specific human capital determine the workers’ careers and productivity.