Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.     

Droit du travail,chômage et part salariale: l'expérience de six pays de l'OCDE, 1970–2010

Utilisant des données sur le droit du travail dans six pays (Allemagne, Etats‐Unis, France, Japon, Royaume‐Uni et Suède) entre 1970 et 2010, les auteurs évaluent les effets de la réglementation du travail sur le chômage et la part du travail dans le revenu national. Leur méthode montre la différence entre les effets à court et à long terme des changements de réglementation: la législation protectrice des travailleurs n'est pas associée de façon systématique avec le chômage, mais est corrélée positivement avec la part du travail dans le revenu national. Les dispositions relatives au temps de travail et la représentation des salariés ont des effets bénéfiques tant sur l'efficacité que sur la répartition.     

How do labour laws affect unemployment and the labour share of national income? The experience of six OECD countries, 1970–2010

Using longitudinal data on labour law in France, Germany, Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period 1970–2010, the authors estimate the impact of labour regulation on unemployment and the labour share of national income. Their dynamic panel data analysis distinguishes between the short‐run and long‐run effects of regulatory change. They find that worker‐protective labour laws in general have no consistent relationship to unemployment but are positively correlated with labour's share of national income. Laws specifically relating to working time and employee representation are found to have beneficial effects on both efficiency and distribution thus proxied.     

Child custody issues and co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence and child maltreatment: controversies and points of agreement amongst practitioners

The situation of families undergoing separation in a context of co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment raises certain issues related to child custody. The results presented in this paper were collected and analysed within the framework of a qualitative study aiming to identify the principal points of agreement and the main controversies amongst practitioners in several different types of organizations. Focus groups were held with a total of 43 practitioners from six different settings concerned with child custody in cases of co‐occurrence of IPV and child maltreatment. Although they agreed on the importance of ensuring the safety of victims of violence, their views diverged on three points: (1) the importance of preserving the father–child relationship; (2) collaboration between voluntary organizations and semi‐voluntary or legal agencies; and (3) consideration of cultural differences.     

Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

The Legal Status of Turks in Germany

Turks in Germany constitute the single largest non-national group living in the member states of the European Union. This essay examines the legal dimensions of their entry, residence and integration in Germany during the 1990s up to 2002. The evidence shows that, despite long-term settlement patterns, Turks in Germany have not achieved a high level of formal inclusion. However, recent policy reforms have already gone some way to improving their situation, and the impact of planned reforms should equally ensure that this process continues in the future.     

Bayesian variable selection and regularization for time–frequency surface estimation

Summary.  We describe novel Bayesian models for time–frequency inverse modelling of non-stationary signals. These models are based on the idea of a Gabor regression , in which a time series is represented as a superposition of translated, modulated versions of a window function exhibiting good time–frequency concentration. As a necessary consequence, the resultant set of potential predictors is in general overcomplete—constituting a frame rather than a basis—and hence the resultant models require careful regularization through appropriate choices of variable selection schemes and prior distributions. We introduce prior specifications that are tailored to representative time series, and we develop effective Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference. To highlight the potential applications of such methods, we provide examples using two of the most distinctive time–frequency surfaces—speech and music signals—as well as standard test functions from the wavelet regression literature.     

The politics of disability and access: the Sydney 2000 Games experience

The article examines disability and access issues surrounding the Sydney 2000 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Central to this is an examination of the involvement of the Australian community of people with disabilities [1] within the Games. The Sydney Paralympic Games, in particular, was seen as a possible watershed event for developing accessible infrastructure, and raising awareness of disability and access issues. This paper draws on the official documents of the Games, newspaper accounts and disability organisation reports. The article first examines the major bodies charged with organising the Games, and the planning processes used to incorporate disability and access issues. It then examines a range of critical issues and their relationships with the disability community. Finally, the article provides an analysis of any likely legacies that the 2000 Games may have for Sydney's community of people with disabilities.     

Beyond normalization and impairment: theorizing subjectivity in learning difficulties – theory and practice

Normalization and social role valorization continue to play a central role in shaping debates and practice relating to learning difficulties. In the context of recent arguments this paper draws on the work of Foucault to deconstruct these theories. Foucault’s work alerts us to a conceptual confusion at their heart which reproduces a common but problematic individual–society dualism. There is an implicit, and problematic, presence in the theories of a pre‐social individual conceived as having essential impairments and who is passive in the face of negative socialization. We propose that Foucault’s ‘ethical’ domain of inquiry, with its concern for how people actively understand themselves and govern their conduct in relation to specific values and a ‘truth’ that they are obliged to recognize in themselves, provides the basis for returning the individual‐as‐subject to theories in an active, critical manner.