Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions

This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied t o 10 macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variable responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates

We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1983:3. We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyze policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982: 12

Although no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, information that may help in evaluating causal hypotheses without containing any such hypotheses.     

Effects of group therapy on female adolescent survivors of sexual abuse: a pilot study

Treatment interventions for female sexual abuse survivors was explored through a pilot study examining the relationship between group treatment and adolescent self-image. Self-image was defined as body image, self-reliance, self-control, and impulse-control. An experimental pre-post design was utilized. Participants were 13 female adolescent high school drop-outs with a history of sexual abuse who participated in the National Guard Youth Challenge Program at Camp Shelby in Mississippi. Participants completed the Offer Self- Image Questionnaire for Adolescents. The hypothesis that group therapy was an effective intervention for sexual abuse survivors was not supported; however, this is likely due to the small sample size. Because this was a pilot study, mean trends were observed to see directional changes that may assist future researchers. Observation of mean trends revealed that participants who received group therapy increased in levels of impulse control while the group that did not receive group therapy remained the same. Mean trends also revealed that the experimental group had a decrease in self-reliance whereas the control group maintained their levels of self-reliance.     

Horse Races,Governance and the Chance to Fight: On the Formation of Organizational Agendas

We consider the formation of issues on the organizational agenda of a manufacturing firm. We find that the patterns of issue formation vary markedly and we develop an analytic framework to examine a number of emerging, potentially ambiguous issues. We emphasize the importance to the organization of perceptions of collective freedom to construct an issue, the role of issue labelling and perceptions of emerging consensus over the construction of an issue. Jointly, these considerations affect whether an issue gains salience on the agenda and whether it is resolved constructively.     

Individual differences in the perception of occupational stress and their association with blood pressure status

Abstract

Casual blood pressure (BP) was recorded in a sample of 217 working adults. A questionnaire was used to obtain subjective reports of job stress. comparisons were made between a group with elevated BP and a normotensive group. The high BP group appeared to perceive more stress. In particular, scores on the role conflict, job versus non-job conflict and type A scales reliably differentiated the groups. In contrast, for the job satisfaction items, no difference between the groups was observed. There appeared to be some association between reported occupational stress and BP level.     

Undergraduate students' attributions of depicted adult-adolescent and adolescent-adolescent sexual interactions

The grayest areas of defining child sexual abuse appear to involve the age and sex of the individuals involved, resulting in a potential for different attributions regarding child sexual abuse across individuals. As a result, this study examines the responses of 262 male and female college student participants after viewing a series of hypothetical sexual abuse vignettes that depicted a 15-year-old victim that neither resisted nor encouraged the advances of a 15-, 25-, or 35-year-old perpetrator's actions. Gender roles and sexual attitudes were examined as potentially important covariates. Using a series of analyses of covariance, female participants gave more pro-victim ratings than male participants, and younger perpetrators were viewed less negatively than older perpetrators. Gender roles and sexual attitudes served as significant covariates. These findings emphasized the need to educate individuals about child sexual abuse and unwanted sexual contact involving individuals under the age of consent.     

Maternal Emotion Socialization in Maltreating and Non-maltreating Families: Implications for Children's Emotion Regulation

This study investigated the socialization of children's emotion regulation in physically maltreating and non‐maltreating mother–child dyads (N = 80 dyads). Mother–child dyads participated in the parent–child emotion interaction task ( Shipman & Zeman, 1999 ) in which they talked about emotionally‐arousing situations. The PCEIT was coded for maternal validation and invalidation in response to children's emotion. Mothers were also interviewed about their approach to emotion socialization using the meta‐emotion interview‐parent version ( Katz & Gottman, 1999 ). The meta‐emotion interview‐parent version was coded for maternal emotion coaching. Mothers also completed measures that assessed their child abuse potential and abuse‐related behaviors as well as children's emotion regulation. Findings indicated that maltreated children demonstrated fewer adaptive emotion regulation skills and more emotion dysregulation than non‐maltreated children. In addition, maltreating mothers engaged in less validation and emotion coaching and more invalidation in response to children's emotion than non‐maltreating mothers. Finally, maternal emotion socialization behaviors mediated the relation between maltreatment status and children's adaptive emotion regulation skills.     

Comment on “Issues Involved With the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series” by William R. Bell and Steven C. Hiilmer

This article investigates the existence of multiple regimes in the U.S. economy during the 1923—1991 period. A technique known as regression tree analysis is applied to search for splits in the data, if any exist, rather than choosing a splitting point a priori as has been done in previous work. Using this technique, strong evidence for the existence of nonlinear behavior of U.S. output is found over this period. Monte Carlo results are presented to assess the significance of the regime changes that are found.