A geometric time-series model with an alternative dependent Bernoulli counting series

In this article, we first introduce an alternative way for construction of the generalized binomial thinning operator with dependent counting series. Some properties of this thinning operator are derived and discussed. Then, by using this thinning operator, we introduce an integer-valued time-series model with geometric marginals. Some conditional and unconditional properties of this model are derived and discussed. Some estimation methods are considered and for some of them, asymptotic properties of the obtained estimates are derived. Performances of the estimates are discussed through some simulations. Finally, a real data example is considered and the goodness-of-fit of this model is compared with the models based on the binomial, negative binomial, and dependent binomial thinning operators.     

An extension on INAR models with discrete Laplace marginal distributions

The main theme considered in this article is an integer-valued thinning operator with both positive and negative values, its properties, and a new time series with skew discrete Laplace marginals. Some properties of this model are discussed, as well as estimators of unknown parameters, similarities and differences with some other existing models, applications in real-life situations, and identification and approximation of latent processes affecting the concerning process.     

Block bootstrap for dependent errors-in-variables

A linear errors-in-variables (EIV) model that contains measurement errors in the input and output data is considered. Weakly dependent (α- and ?-mixing) errors, not necessarily stationary nor identically distributed, are taken into account within the EIV model. Parameters of the EIV model are estimated by the total least squares approach, which provides highly non linear estimates. Because of this, many statistical procedures for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypotheses cannot be applied. One possible solution to this dilemma is a block bootstrap. An appropriate moving block bootstrap procedure is provided and its correctness proved. The results are illustrated through a simulation study and applied on real data as well.     

Currency boards,depoliticization and macroeconomic stability: the political economy of institutional complementarities*

This article analyzes the potential for institutional design to depoliticize macroeconomic policy-making by examining currency board arrangements. It develops a novel argument to understand the effects of institutional design based on institutional complementarities. This argument highlights that the functioning of a given institution is conditioned by the broader institutional context. The article contrasts this framework with two common approaches – here termed the institutional design and the epiphenomenalism views – and argues that the centrality of institutional complementarities can account for the mixed record of currency boards. The most important complementarities of a currency board are with fiscal, labor market and informal institutions, which are important prerequisites for successful currency boards. By drawing on recent advances in the study of depoliticization, we show how these institutions contribute to governmental, societal and discursive depoliticization. This argument is evaluated by examining three case studies of currency boards – Argentina, Estonia and Lithuania. The article also explores some broader implications of this analysis for understanding the depoliticization of economic policy.     

‘Kids’ Skills’ and ‘Mission Possible’ Innovations: Solution-Focused Brief Therapy Models for Working with Children and Adolescents Revised and Expanded

This article explores the ‘Kids’ Skills’ and ‘Mission Possible’ models of solution-focused brief therapy (SFBT) with children and adolescents. Both models are presented, compared, revised, and expanded with further ideas and therapeutic tools in three crucial areas: 1. Future direction, 2. Resources, and 3. Initiation of change (action). Future direction is expanded by preferred future, skill(s), and goal(s). Resources is expanded by ‘small talk,’ progress and confidence scales, exceptions, metaphors, and engagement of supporters. Initiation of change (action) goes beyond practicing the skill to experiments or steps towards the goal. This gives more flexibility to therapists using SFBT with their clients. All this is illustrated with case examples.     

EU ideology

The idea of Europe was radically transformed after the accomplishment of the idea of European unification. The European Union (EU) and Europe at the beginning of the twenty-first century were defined by a broad common ideology that consists of ideologies such as antinationalism, social democracy, pacificism and environmentalism. These ideologies are presented by pro-EU scholars and politicians as ideologies rooted in European history and parts of European identity and as being mostly absent in the American policies. The emergence of EU ideology is traced in the relaunch of European integration in the mid-1980s and in Delors’ conflict with Thatcher. It is argued that the emergence of EU ideology is the result of two long-term historical developments: the deepening and enlargement of European integration; and the changing relations between the USA and Europe. It is concluded that the emergence of EU ideology resembles the emergence of nationalism and national ideologies.     

Who are the Supporters of Croatian Membership in the European Union and NATO? Predictive Value of Personal and National Well-Being

Like many other Central and Eastern European countries Croatia has passed through substantial political changes and transition processes from state to liberal market economy in the last two decades. The next important step is accession to EU and NATO, and public opinion about joining these associations is divided. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of subjective well-being measures in explaining attitudes of Croatian citizens toward accession to NATO and European Union. In particular, the prognostic utility of SWB is tested over and above usefulness of basic socio-demographic variables in explaining those political opinions. The research was conducted on a huge and representative sample (N = 4,000) of Croatian citizens in the spring of 2009. As a measure of subjective well-being, Croatian version of International Well-Being Index (IWI; Cummins in International Wellbeing Index, Version 2 [online]. Available from: , 2002) was used. IWI includes National and Personal Well-Being scales where each scale consists of several personal or national well-being domains. Socio-demographic variables used in this survey were gender, age, and level of education. Hierarchical logistic regression was applied to test the unique contribution of National and Personal well-being domains in predicting attitudes toward accession. The results show that National well-being index is useful in predicting attitudes toward accession of Croatia to EU and NATO, and has an even higher predictive value than basic socio-demographic variables. National well-being domains that significantly improve prediction were satisfaction with government and satisfaction with national economic situation. Higher satisfaction with national government is related to support of accession to both alliances, whereas higher satisfaction with national economy is associated solely with supporting the EU membership. The personal well-being index and belonging domains were not useful in this political attitude prediction. Possible theoretical explanation of observed relations between NWI and political opinion were further discussed.     

People with experience of long-term drug use and homelessness teaching with us: experts by experience participation in university social work education

ABSTRACT

Participation of experts by experience in university social work education is an important shaping factor for future social workers. This article presents two-year long experience in lecturing together with people who have had experience with long-term drug use, homelessness and have a lot of experience with being in a role of social work clients as well. The aim of the presented approach is to recognize their experience, opinions, and attitudes as an important source of knowledge in social work. Based on the research outcomes, the authors discuss topics such as: the role of experts, empowerment, breaking the stereotypes and ethical issues related to experts’ participation. They conclude with practical recommendations.     

Dual life of seafarers’ families: descriptive study of perspectives of seafarers’ partners

ABSTRACT

Although the dual life of a seafarer’s family is recognized as a unique life, a systematic approach to the perspectives of seafarers’ partners is lacking, especially in the case of long-term separation. Therefore, we have adopted a qualitative approach to gain systematic and deeper insight into the features of the seafarers’ occupation which are reflected positively or negatively in their partners’ lives. By means of an online survey, we collected data from 647 partners of Croatian seafarers. The data obtained, relating to open-ended questions, were analysed by thematic analysis. Negative effects of separation emerged as the most strongly-represented theme, wherein a range of different aspects relating to separation is identified (loneliness, overload with domestic duties and care for children, etc.). Other negative aspects relate to fear caused by risks and stressors in seafaring, subordination of one’s own job/career, and lack of understanding and support from family and friends. Still, participants reported a range of positive aspects of the dual life, such as financial security, growth of the loving relationship, full commitment from their partner during days off, the benefits of the seafarer's job satisfaction for the relationship, and having time for one’s own growth during the partner’s absence.