Modernization and the Demographic Transition: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of a Revised Model

Abstract

We specify a revised model of the demographic transition which accounts for national fertility levels and changes over the past two decades. The model includes cultural, geographic, demographic and family planning program variables, in addition to a measure of national socio-economic modernization. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, we operationalize and then apply the revised model to 1974 rates, and then test a longitudinal model of 1955–59 to 1974 change in rates. A final model for 81 less developed nations from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning program effort. Including this highly significant measure in a model of 1955–59 to 1974 change results in further evidence favoring modification of the traditional demographic transition model. Implications for the future course of fertility in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Measuring and analysing supply chain schedule stability: A case study in the automotive industry

Final assembly plants send material schedules to first-tier suppliers who in turn send schedules to second-tier suppliers and so on through the multiple tiers of the supply chain. A key cost driver for the supply chain is a schedule characteristic termed stability. The Total Quality Management approach is applied to improve schedule stability in the supply chain of a large vertically integrated automotive manufacturer. A measurement described, actual stability results are provided, the causes of instability are listed, and some corrective actions are specified. Results indicate that schedule stability can be improved without damaging the performance of other measures such as inventory and customer responsiveness. and analysis process is     

Linking aggregate production planning with marketing pricing decisions

In this paper, we link production planning decisions to marketing decisions that involve the price of product groups. The focus of this paper is the development of a closed-loop procedure for aggregate production planning and pricing. We seek to satisfy uncertain demand while minimizing total costs that include material, labour, and inventory holding costs. The procedure is useful for variable demand to update short-term aggregate plans.     

Nothing to Declare: J. Hillis Miller and Zero's Paradox

In Australian law, the protection of cultural property or cultural rights is built upon generalisable notions of culture, cultural belongings and properties. These notions have tended to reflect non‐Indigenous preconceptions and, as a result, Aboriginal cultural rights have been inadequately recognised and legal protection offered has often failed to protect what is valuable and significant to Aboriginal peoples. In the context of these issues, this article considers the relationship between the representation of culture and notions of cultural identity and property.     

Tolerance‐based error reduction in multi‐agent bioassays

Some degree of error is inevitable in multi‐agent bioassays regardless of design or measurement technology. Estimation error can be reduced post facto by exploiting the matrix partial ordering of the bioassay survival estimates. The standard method for this is order‐restricted regression (ORR). If the joint action of the bioassay agents admits a tolerance‐based interpretation, additional structure beyond matrix partial ordering is available, leading to a new method of error reduction. This tolerance‐based error reduction (TBER) procedure almost always outperforms ORR. Like ORR, TBER applies to complete factorial bioassay designs and, using weighting, to incomplete designs.     

Relation of Goal Setting and Goal Sharing to Performance and Conflict for Interdependent Tasks

Despite the prevalence of goal setting in organizations, researchers have not thoroughly examined the implications of goal setting to work outcomes in interdependent work settings. A field survey (n= 442) assessed the relation of goal setting and goal sharing, the extent to which others are aware of an individual's work goal, to performance and conflict across varying levels of task interdependence. The results of moderated regression analyses demonstrate that in highly interdependent tasks, the use of goal setting resulted in lower performance levels. Moreover, goal setting and goal sharing in highly interdependent tasks resulted in individuals' reporting more somatic symptoms. The results are discussed in terms of clarifying the role of goal setting for interdependent tasks.     

Network Evening News Coverage of Environmental Risk

ABC, CBS, and NBC's carefully crafted and expensively produced evening news broadcasts devoted 1.7% of their air time to 564 stories about man-made environmental risks during the period from January 1984 to February 1986. Little relationship was found between amount of coverage and public health risk. Instead, the networks appeared to be using traditional journalistic determinants of news (timeliness, proximity, prominence, consequence, and human interest) plus the broadcast criterion of visual impact to determine the degree of coverage of risk issues. Government, industry, and citizens accounted for two-thirds of the sources cited by the networks. Experts and spokespersons for environmental advocacy groups were sparsely used as sources. Given the media's need for news pegs, acute and chronic risk stories were covered differently. Acute risk stories were reported in a clearly defined cycle, peaking on the second day with on-the-scene reports and film-clips of devastation. In keeping with a decrease in visual drama, later reports were shorter and emphasized legal and political considerations. Chronic risk coverage followed the release of new scientific, legal, or political information.     

Programmed Strategic Decision Making: The View From Mintzberg's Window1

A class of decisions, asset mix decisions made by pension fund managers, which exhibit characteristics of both programmed and strategic choices is examined in this paper. The decisions are classified using the scheme developed by Mintzberg et al., (1976) to highlight the circumstances under which strategic decisions may be programmed. The types of strategic decisions which lend themselves to programming are considered. The advantages and disadvantages of programming strategic decisions are also discussed.     

The role of inferential accuracy in performance rating

The presence of shared implicit theories of performance is used in explaining the failure of behavioral anchors to improve performance ratings. It is proposed that efforts to improve rating accuracy also will be hampered by a preoccupation with observation. Instead, attention needs to be focused on the inferential accuracy of the rater and the cognitive processes and implicit theories upon which raters rely.     

Whatever happened to environmental analysis?

This article discusses a longitudinal study of firms selected for their expertise in environmental analysis. It is primarily designed to test two general propositions. The first, that environmental analysis is increasing in importance over time— both within and between firms; and the second, that environmental analysis is most viable as a separate, freestanding function within the organization.