Graphical representation of survival curves in the presence of time-dependent categorical covariates with application to liver transplantation

Graphical representation of survival curves is often used to illustrate associations between exposures and time-to-event outcomes. However, when exposures are time-dependent, calculation of survival probabilities is not straightforward. Our aim was to develop a method to estimate time-dependent survival probabilities and represent them graphically. Cox models with time-dependent indicators to represent state changes were fitted, and survival probabilities were plotted using pre-specified times of state changes. Time-varying hazard ratios for the state change were also explored. The method was applied to data from the Adult-to-Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Cohort Study (A2ALL). Survival curves showing a ‘split’ at a pre-specified time t allow for the qualitative comparison of survival probabilities between patients with similar baseline covariates who do and do not experience a state change at time t. Time since state change interactions can be visually represented to reflect changing hazard ratios over time. A2ALL study results showed differences in survival probabilities among those who did not receive a transplant, received a living donor transplant, and received a deceased donor transplant. These graphical representations of survival curves with time-dependent indicators improve upon previous methods and allow for clinically meaningful interpretation.     

A CANONICAL ANALYSIS OF MANAGERIAL-ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS: IMPLICATIONS FOR METHODOLOGY AND POLICY*

The present study uses canonical analysis to examine the contingency model of organizations in the nursing home field. Data on environmental pressures and managerial practices relevant to the decision-making process are analyzed. Results support the theory that managerial practices are contingent on environmental pressures. The implications of these results for health-care decision makers and for future assessments of managerial-environmental relationships are discussed.     

Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two. In this article, we develop and test prediction intervals based on empirical analyses of past forecast errors for counties in the United States. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000, we apply trend extrapolation techniques to develop a set of county population forecasts; calculate forecast errors by comparing forecasts to subsequent census counts; and use the distribution of errors to construct empirical prediction intervals. We find that empirically-based prediction intervals provide reasonably accurate predictions of the precision of population forecasts, but provide little guidance regarding their tendency to be too high or too low. We believe the construction of empirically-based prediction intervals will help users of small-area population forecasts measure and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in population forecasts and plan more effectively for the future.     

澳门检察院建制的启示

澳门特别行政区的检察制度在回归后已有很大改变,它一方面对葡国法律制度有所承袭,另一方面又作出了自己独特的改革,呈现出与内地截然不同的特色,其特殊的"一院建制,三级派任"制度又对内地有着极为现实的启示。     

射体-界标理论及其在文学翻译中的应用

文学翻译比较灵活,是翻译研究领域中比较特殊的一类。传统的研究者一般从形式语义学理论角度研究翻译现象,而文章尝试从认知语法的射体一界标理论角度来探讨文学翻译现象。通过阐述该理论的内涵、英汉和汉英翻译中存在的一词多译的原因,提出射体一界标理论可以应用到文学翻译研究中,并进一步地探讨了把该理论应用到文学翻译中的方法。     

朱熹、张栻解《孟子》“王何必曰利？亦有仁义而已矣”之比较

朱熹、张栻解《孟子》“王何必曰利？亦有仁义而已矣”,以程颐的天理人欲概念讨论义利之辨,大致源于胡安国讲“义者,天理之公;利者,人欲之私”。张栻讲“无所为者天理,义之公也;有所为者人欲,利之私也”,讲“无所为者”与“有所为者”的对立。朱熹进一步讲仁义为天理之公,利心为人欲之私,讲仁义之心与利心的对立。因此,朱熹与张栻的解...     

Parenting,Uncertainty, and Expert Advice: How Privileged American Families Work with Private Counselors in Their Children's College Race

This article uses privileged families who hire Independent Educational Consultants (IECs) as an instance to examine how privileged parents collaborate with individuals whom they consider educational experts to support their children in the college race. We argue that advantaged parents' anxieties about their children have created a market for IECs who provide expert advice in order to mitigate the uncertainties that these parents experience and to manage various goals that they want to achieve at an important turning point in their children's lives. Drawing primarily on interviews with parents who work with IECs, we introduce the concept of “collaborative cultivation” to analyze the processes whereby advantaged parents rely on the expertise and expert status of private counselors to cope with their and their children's vulnerability in the college race while at the same time preparing their children for the unknown future. The parental method of “concerted cultivation” reveals how elite parents rely on individuals they perceive as experts to establish “bridges” between their own social worlds and the academic worlds that appear to beyond their control. This bridging labor points to the myriad cultural beliefs enacted to justify the child‐rearing goals that privileged parents wish to accomplish by working with IECs.     

The Use of the Partnering Concept for Public–Private Collaboration: How Well Does it Really Work?

This paper critically scrutinizes the key success factors and tools described in the partnering literature by exploring how they are implemented in a public–private partnering collaboration. In addition to this the paper investigates to what extent these tools facilitate the relationship between the parties in a partnering process. The empirical data consist of two longitudinal case studies. Both cases are large and complex urban development projects in the Swedish water and sewage industry. The results from the cases were ambiguous and positive; as well, some negative outcomes were present. Further, the processes were in both cases far from easy and it required a lot of effort from the parties in the collaboration to make the collaboration work and establish a culture based on trust, especially higher up in the organization. As could be expected, the reality is thus far more complex and cumbersome than previous studies indicate.     

Women's Marriage Behavior Following a Premarital Birth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

This study examines the relationship between premarital childbearing and the timing of women's entry into their first marriage in sub‐Saharan Africa. The study shows that African women who have a premarital birth generally experience later transitions to marriage than do their childless peers. Although the birth of a child precipitates a quicker transition to marriage initially, unmarried mothers, on average, marry at older ages than their childless peers and remain single for between 2 and 14 years. Evidence from a subsample of countries confirms that the time between having a child and first marriage has lengthened slightly in some countries; however, this reflects mainly the overall trend toward later marriage, rather than a further bifurcation of the marital trajectories of mothers versus childless women. The study raises policy concerns about the welfare of Africa's single mothers and their children.