Decision Making for Risk Management: A Comparison of Graphical Methods for Presenting Quantitative Uncertainty

Previous research has shown that people err when making decisions aided by probability information. Surprisingly, there has been little exploration into the accuracy of decisions made based on many commonly used probabilistic display methods. Two experiments examined the ability of a comprehensive set of such methods to effectively communicate critical information to a decision maker and influence confidence in decision making. The second experiment investigated the performance of these methods under time pressure, a situational factor known to exacerbate judgmental errors. Ten commonly used graphical display methods were randomly assigned to participants. Across eight scenarios in which a probabilistic outcome was described, participants were asked questions regarding graph interpretation (e.g., mean) and made behavioral choices (i.e., act; do not act) based on the provided information indicated that decision‐maker accuracy differed by graphical method; error bars and boxplots led to greatest mean estimation and behavioral choice accuracy whereas complementary cumulative probability distribution functions were associated with the highest probability estimation accuracy. Under time pressure, participant performance decreased when making behavioral choices.     

THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF U.S. FOOD AID

Although food aid may have important medium- to long-term effects, there is a glaring absence of empirical research on food aid dynamics. This paper applies vector autoregression methods to data from 18 countries over the period 1961–95. We find evidence that food aid has a pronounced J-curve effect on recipient country per capita commercial food imports but only negligible negative effects on recipient country per capita food production. The commercial export gains are primarily enjoyed, however, by the donors' competitors, revealing heretofore unrecognized positive pecuniary trade externalities associated with foreign assistance. ( JEL F14, O13, Q17, Q18)     

Electrophysiological Signals of Familiarity and Recency in the Infant Brain

Electrophysiological work in nonhuman primates has established the existence of multiple types of signals in the temporal lobe that contribute to recognition memory, including information regarding a stimulus’s relative novelty, familiarity, and recency of occurrence. We used high‐density event‐related potentials (ERPs) to examine whether young infants represent these distinct types of information about previously experienced items. Twenty‐four different highly familiar and initially novel items were each repeated exactly once either immediately ( Experiment 1 ), or following one intervening item ( Experiment 2 ). A late slow wave (LSW) component of the ERP exhibited neural responses consistent with recency signals over right‐central leads, but only when there were no intervening stimuli between repetitions. The LSW also exhibited responses consistent with familiarity signals over anterior‐temporal leads, but only when there were intervening stimuli between repetitions. A mid‐latency negative component (i.e., the Nc) also distinguished familiar from novel items, but did not exhibit a pattern of responding consistent with familiarity signals. These findings suggest that infants encode information about a variety of objects from their natural environments into long‐term memory, and can discriminate between familiar and unfamiliar items, and between recently seen and new items, very quickly (within 1 sec). They also suggest that infants represent information about not only whether a stimulus is familiar or unfamiliar but also whether it has been seen recently.     

A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.     

Sources of Volunteer Motivation: Transformational Leadership and Personal Motives Influence Volunteer Outcomes

We examined the separate influences of volunteers' personal motives and their team leaders' behaviors on volunteer satisfaction and contributions, along with mediating processes suggested by self‐determination theory. Participants were 302 volunteers who worked in teams at various sites through a central agency. As predicted, both personal motives for volunteering and transformational leadership influenced volunteer satisfaction through enhanced work meaningfulness and higher‐quality team relationships. However, motives that predicted volunteer contribution were different from those that predicted satisfaction. Whereas satisfaction was positively associated with motives concerning esteem enhancement and value expression, contribution was positively associated with motives to gain understanding and negatively related to motives pertaining to esteem enhancement and social concerns. Transformational leadership was positively associated with volunteer satisfaction, but not with volunteer contributions. The theoretical ramifications of these findings are discussed, along with practical implications for the recruitment and retention of volunteers.     

Treating distressed couples with coexisting mental and physical disorders: directions for clinical training and practice

Relationship difficulties frequently coexist with significant emotional, behavioral, and physical health problems in one or both partners. Moreover, couple therapists report individual emotional and behavioral disorders as among the most difficult problems that they encounter in clinical practice. In this article, we summarize empirical evidence regarding the association between relationship distress and the onset, course, and treatment of mental and physical health problems. Based on these findings, we propose five critical implications for clinical training and the practice of couple therapy.     

Bayesian hierarchical duration model for repeated events: an application to behavioral observations

This article presents a continuous-time Bayesian model for analyzing durations of behavior displays in social interactions. Duration data of social interactions are often complex because of repeated behaviors (events) at individual or group (e.g. dyad) level, multiple behaviors (multistates), and several choices of exit from a current event (competing risks). A multilevel, multistate model is proposed to adequately characterize the behavioral processes. The model incorporates dyad-specific and transition-specific random effects to account for heterogeneity among dyads and interdependence among competing risks. The proposed method is applied to child–parent observational data derived from the School Transitions Project to assess the relation of emotional expression in child–parent interaction to risk for early and persisting child conduct problems.