Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach

In this article, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for nowcasting. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP growth increase almost monotonically, as new information arrives during the quarter. While the ranking of the model classes changes during the quarter, the combined density nowcasts always perform well relative to the model classes in terms of both logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.     

Generational Differences in Cohabitation and Marriage in the US

We use data from pooled 2000 to 2004 current population surveys (CPSs) to examine generational differences in cohabitation and marriage among men and women ages 20–34 in the US. Consistent with our expectation and in line with assimilation theory, levels of cohabitation rise across succeeding generations. In contrast, generational differences in marriage follow a curvilinear pattern such that those in the second generation are least likely to be married, which supports some contemporary extensions of assimilation theory. These patterns persist across education groups, and tend to hold across racial and ethnic groups, too, although among women, the predicted percentages cohabiting across generations vary widely by race-ethnicity. This paper is an original work by Brown, Van Hook and Glick and is being submitted exclusively to PRPR for publication consideration. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, March 30–April 2, 2005, Philadelphia, PA.     

In the eye of the beholder? An eye-tracking experiment on emergent leadership in team interactions

Integrating evolutionary signaling theory with a social attention approach, we argue that individuals possess a fast, automated mechanism for detecting leadership signals in fellow humans that is reflected in higher visual attention toward emergent leaders compared to non-leaders. To test this notion, we first videotaped meetings of project teams and collected leadership ratings for the team members from three rating sources. Second, we provided 18 naïve observers with 42 brief, muted video clips of the team meetings and analyzed their eye gazing patterns. Observers gazed at emergent leaders more often, and for an average longer duration, than at non-leaders. Gender effects occurred such that male emergent leaders received a higher number of fixations than female emergent leaders. Non-verbal behavior analysis indicated that emergent leaders showed a higher amount of active gestures and less passive facial expressions than non-leaders. We discuss theoretical and methodological directions for emergent leadership research in teams.     

Unaccompanied refugee minors and foster care: A narrative literature review

This article describes the results of a narrative literature review on empirical research examining the outcomes and/or experiences of unaccompanied refugee minors in family foster care. The limited research' in which only 17 references were identified' suggests that family foster care is an important type of care for this group and is associated with better health and psychosocial outcomes compared to other types of care. Nevertheless' breakdown of family foster care placements is a cause for concern. Four groups of factors that influence the course of family foster care placements are discussed' namely' foster family characteristics' differences in expectations between foster parents and refugee youth' cultural differences' and contextual factors. Furthermore' practical implications and suggestions for further research are described.     

The Changing Valuation of Dogs1

In recent decades, the United States has witnessed profound changes in the sociocultural valuation of dogs, variously described as humanization, sentimentalization, or sacralization. A broad look at this “sacralization” of dogs in the United States reveals that this changing valuation has altered dogs’ place within economic processes. In particular, these changes parallel Viviana Zelizer’s work on the changing valuation of children a century ago. In this article, we further specify Zelizer’s insights by arguing that these accompanying economic transformations are best understood as shifting of a dogs’ place within budgetary units: from objects for human consumption to fellow actors humans consume with and around.     

Urbanization alters fear behavior in black-capped chickadees

Urban landscapes contain a multitude of novel sensory stimuli, and urban dwelling animals, such as songbirds living near human dwellings, must quickly learn how to respond to these unfamiliar cues. When exposure reveals that a stimulus is associated with a cost, fearful behavior should increase. Conversely, neophobic fear should decrease when negative outcomes do not regularly follow the stimulus. Because exposure to anthropogenic stimuli is more common in birds that inhabit urbanized landscapes, their fear response patterns should more accurately reflect the risks associated with these stimuli. We conducted a series of feeder and playback experiments to explore whether urbanization altered black-capped chickadees’ (Poecile atricapillus) fear responses to model cats, humans, a novel object, and anthropogenic noise. We predicted that fearful responses to cat models would increase in birds as urbanization increased because negative interactions with cats are more common in the city. However, we expected urban birds to be less fearful of our other stimuli because fitness costs are absent or less severe. As predicted, the fear of cats increased with urbanization, but the fear of noise decreased - as indicated by willingness to visit a feeding station. Other stimuli were not associated with urbanization, which may be related to the use of county and city parks where human presence is relatively common. Nonetheless, our results suggest that plastic fear responses to novel stimuli may facilitate urban success in the black-capped chickadee. More generally, behavioral plasticity may indicate the ability of a species to thrive in the urban environment.     

Clustering in dividends: Do managers rely on cognitive reference points?

Prior studies (see e.g. [Rosch, E. (1975). Cognitive reference points. Cognitive Psychology, 7, 532–547]) indicate that multiples of ten serve as cognitive reference points with a view to perceiving and evaluating numbers. In order to explore whether managers set dividends per share (henceforth DPS) at or just above a cognitive reference point, we perform a digital analysis on US firms’ DPS for the period 1995–2004. That is, based on the theory of cognitive reference points, DPS of $2.00 will be viewed as being abnormally larger than DPS of $1.99, whereas the actual difference only amounts to a marginal $0.01. Results presented in this paper indicate that managers fall back on cognitive reference points when they set DPS, which shows in significantly more (fewer) zeroes (large digits) in the second-from-the-left position of DPS than would normally be expected. Overall, results presented in this paper tally with prior findings on odd-ending prices and price clustering documented in related disciplines.     

The Rise of Age Homogamy in 19th Century Western Europe

In many parts of Western Europe the age at first marriage and the level of celibacy declined in the second half of the 19th century. This weakening of the European marriage pattern (EMP) can be interpreted as a “classic” response to the increase of the standard of living, but a more far‐reaching interpretation is that the erosion of the EMP was part of a cultural shift characterized by the rise of a new, less instrumental and more egalitarian view on marriage and partner selection. The latter vision implies the increase of the preference for a same age marriage. We test this explanation by using a combined Belgian‐Dutch data set of marriage certificates (N = 766,412). Our findings corroborate the “cultural shift thesis.”     

What Determines the Embeddedness of Forced‐Return Migrants? Rethinking the Role of Pre‐ and Post‐Return Assistance1

Return migration is not always a process of simply “going home.” Particularly when return is not fully voluntarily, returnees face severe obstacles. This study argues that such return can only become sustainable when returnees are provided with possibilities to become re‐embedded in terms of economic, social network, and psychosocial dimensions. We analyze the return migration experiences of 178 rejected asylum seekers and migrants who did not obtain residence permit to six different countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sierra Leone, Togo and Vietnam. Using both quantitative and qualitative methods of data analysis, we identify several key factors that influence prospects for embeddedness, such as individual and family characteristics, position in the migration cycle, and the role of pre‐ and post‐return assistance. We find that the possibilities for successful return are highly dependent on the living circumstances provided in the host country: returnees who were enabled to engage in work, had access to independent housing and freedom to develop social contacts proved to be better able to exercise agency and maintain self‐esteem. Post‐return assistance by non‐governmental organizations will be particularly helpful when financial support is combined with human guidance and practical information to enhance a more sustainable return process.