Demographic models of birth outcomes and infant mortality: An alternative measurement approach

Most demographic studies use 2,500 grams of birth weight and 37 weeks of gestation as cutpoints for evaluating the effects of adverse birth outcomes on infant mortality. We propose an alternative strategy, which relies on continuous measures of birth outcomes, identifies an optimal combination of birth weight and gestational age for infant survival, and estimates the effects of adverse birth outcomes in terms of their departure from this "optimal point." We illustrate the advantages of this approach by estimating a logistic model using data from the 1989-1991 NCHS linked birth/infant death files. Finally, we discuss future applications and methodological issues to be resolved in subsequent research.     

Academic and Behavioral Outcomes Among the Children of Young Mothers

In this article, we use newly available data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate the effects of early motherhood on academic and behavioral outcomes for children born to early child bearers. We find that early motherhood's strong negative correlation with children's test scores and positive correlation with children's grade repetition is almost entirely explained by prebirth individual and family background factors of teen mothers themselves. However, early childbearing is associated indirectly with reduced children's test scores through its linkage to family size (and thus to child birth order). We find a different pattern in predicting fighting, truancy, early sexual activity, and other problem behaviors among adolescent and young adult offspring. For these behaviors, maternal age at first birth remains an important risk factor even after controlling for a wide range of background factors and maternal characteristics. These results highlight the diverse pathways through which teen parenting might influence subsequent child well‐being and social performance.     

DIALOGUES OF THE NATIONS: Revisiting Visions and Its Critics

Critics of Visions in this symposium raise three general questions. The question of inclusiveness is addressed by linking pertinent criteria to the book's aims; that of justifying national traditions by reviewing pertinent evidence; and that of the viability of dialogue by arguing that responsive communication does not entail full agreement. A number of particular issues the critics raise are addressed by the book's arguments regarding the relation of the discipline of sociology to its philosophical background, the international setting of early sociology, Durkheim's individualism, Weber's distinction between naturalism and interpretability, Marx's treatment of Feuerbach and of nationalism, and the relation between power and knowledge. This response concludes by explicating the proposal that the time may be ripe to rejoin a number of the elements of Aristotelian social science that had been delegated to various national traditions of social theory in the modern era.     

The Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale: Individual Differences in (Dis)comfort with Altering the Natural World

People differ in their comfort with tampering with the natural world. Although some see altering nature as a sign of human progress, others see it as dangerous or hubristic. Across four studies, we investigate discomfort with tampering with the natural world. To do so, we develop the Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale, a short scale that is the first to directly measure this discomfort. We identify six activities that people believe tamper with nature (geoengineering, genetically modified organisms, pesticides, cloning, gene therapy, and nanoparticles) and show that ATN scores are associated with opposition to these activities. Furthermore, the ATN Scale predicts actual behavior: donations to an anti-tampering cause. We demonstrate that ATN is related to previously identified constructs including trust in technology, naturalness bias, purity values, disgust sensitivity, aversion to playing God, and environmental beliefs and values. By illuminating who is concerned about tampering with nature and what predicts these beliefs, the ATN Scale provides opportunities to better understand public opposition to technological innovations, consumer preferences for “natural” products, and strategies for science communication.     

Nuclear Plant PRA: How Far Has It Come?

Nearly ten years have passed since the publication in August 1974 of the draft Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400), the first detailed attempt to apply probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to estimate the public risks posed by commercial nuclear power plants. Now is an opportune time to look back and see how PRA has fared over these ten years. We will not attempt to pass judgement on how the Reactor Safety Study report itself has withstood the test of time, as that task is best left to others less directly involved in preparing the report. Instead, we will examine advances in the understanding, acceptance, and utilization of PRA techniques, as well as technical advances in PRA methods. Some of the significant insights gained from PRAs will be discussed. Finally, some observations on the future of PRA will be offered.     

Statewide substance abuse prevention planning

The State of Rhode Island contracted with the authors to prepare a statewide, comprehensive substance abuse prevention plan. The literature review revealed a lack of research on statewide planning for prevention services. To obtain data for Rhode Island's plan, the authors conducted a family of studies including synthetic estimation, key informant interviews, a telephone survey of agency directors, program budget analysis, construction of a statistical index for estimating the optimal geographic allocation of prevention dollars, and a review of General Laws regarding tobacco, alcohol, and other drugs. Their recommendations include the increased funding and coordination of prevention services, allocating services according to need rather than population size, greater use of social policy as a prevention tool, and a shift in primary prevention programming from senior high to lower grades and in program emphasis from information-education to psychosocial programs.     

Estimation of group means in generalized linear mixed models

In this study, we investigate the concept of the mean response for a treatment group mean as well as its estimation and prediction for generalized linear models with a subject‐wise random effect. Generalized linear models are commonly used to analyze categorical data. The model‐based mean for a treatment group usually estimates the response at the mean covariate. However, the mean response for the treatment group for studied population is at least equally important in the context of clinical trials. New methods were proposed to estimate such a mean response in generalized linear models; however, this has only been done when there are no random effects in the model. We suggest that, in a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), there are at least two possible definitions of a treatment group mean response that can serve as estimation/prediction targets. The estimation of these treatment group means is important for healthcare professionals to be able to understand the absolute benefit vs risk. For both of these treatment group means, we propose a new set of methods that suggests how to estimate/predict both of them in a GLMMs with a univariate subject‐wise random effect. Our methods also suggest an easy way of constructing corresponding confidence and prediction intervals for both possible treatment group means. Simulations show that proposed confidence and prediction intervals provide correct empirical coverage probability under most circumstances. Proposed methods have also been applied to analyze hypoglycemia data from diabetes clinical trials.