Racial disparity in Minnesota's child protection system

Minnesota has been recognized by several studies as a state with a significant amount of racial disparity in its child protection system. This study, using 2001 data from Minnesota's Social Services Information Service, was conducted to determine at which of the six decision points in Minnesota's child welfare system racial disparities are statistically significant. The authors employ a nested model to examine a child's journey through the Minnesota child protection system. Using binary logistic regression, they are able to determine the odds that a child belonging to a particular racial or ethnic group would progress to the next decision point.     

Entscheidungsunterstützung unter Berücksichtigung der Anforderungen von Entscheidungsträgern am Beispiel der Gestaltung von optionalen Girokonto-Tarifen

Quantitative decision models are used only if managers’ implementation conditions are met. Decision makers want tools that offer a set of good solutions so that they can evaluate different solutions according to various objectives without being forced to make their trade-offs explicit in a functional form. This also allows taking into account strategic aspects that cannot be modeled otherwise. In such situations, heuristics are needed which derive solutions from the structure and not so much from the mathematical properties. We present such a decision support tool for the problem of determining a menu of optional tariffs for checking accounts. The heuristic is based on the idea that for reasonably separable preferences across segments it is the best to offer for each segment the most preferred product. We use latent class choice-based conjoint analysis to estimate customer preferences and develop a customized choice-based conjoint design to take differences in individual demand into account. The proposed heuristic was used to support an actual decision problem for which the profit contribution has been increased substantially without having faced a considerable loss of customers.     

Predictors of Generative Action Among Adults in Two Transitional Countries

One of the widest elaborations of generativity today is the theoretical model proposed by McAdams and de St. Aubin. This model has not yet been tested completely, that is only some of its components and their relations have been tested. The main reasons for such an empirical status of the model are inadequately clear operationalizations of the components of the model. After our previous research, which include adaptation of scales for measuring of some key components of model, generative care and generative action (Lacković-Grgin et al., Suvremena Psihologija, 5, 9, 2002; Lacković-Grgin, Zbirka psihologijskih skala i upitnika, Zadar: University of Zadar, 2004; Tucak et al., Generativna briga i generativno djelovanje u odraslih osoba u Hrvatskoj i Sloveniji, XVII Dani Ramira i Zorana Bujasa, Summaries, 98, 2005), as well as operationalization of so called belief in species component (which is a component of Philosophy about human nature) (Ćubela Adorić et al., Philosophies of Human Nature in Adolescents and Adults, 7th Alps-Adria Conference in Psychology, Abstracts, 167, 2005), in this paper we have tried to evaluate life goals questionnaire. This questionnaire tried to measure the other component of the model—inner desire. In that way we could realize the main goal of this paper, research of how important are the evaluations in the prediction of generative action in Croatian and Slovenian adults. Generative action is under the strong influence of cultural demands and inner desires. There are more sociological and economical indications about the differences in expected social development in countries like Croatia and Slovenia. Because of the fact that in the last decade Slovenia has been developed more than Croatia, we could expect that this could also be manifested in assessment of importance of some areas of life, which are relevant for generative action (e.g., work, marriage, free time), for life goals of agency and communion, as well as for generative care as a possible predictor of generative action. The greater differences were obtained in some predictors of generative action (e.g. importance of job, importance of free time, goals of agency and communion), as well as in their predictive importance.     

Channel Strategies and Stocking Policies in Uncapacitated and Capacitated Supply Chains*

A supply chain consisting of a single supplier distributing two independent products through multiple retailers is analyzed in this paper. The supplier needs to incentivize its retailers to adopt stocking policies that are mutually advantageous and that result in the optimal level of market coverage. The focus is on determining the optimal stocking policies for retailers and the resulting distribution strategy given that the supplier has either unlimited or limited capacity. The results provide insights on the optimal distribution strategy and stocking policies for the supply chain. In general, the paper shows that it is optimal for the supplier to use an intensive distribution strategy (i.e., the products are stocked by all retailers). Selective or exclusive strategies are optimal only when retailers are risk averse, stocking synergies exist, and there are differences in demand or supply uncertainties across products. The analysis also shows that retailers hold larger stocks of a product which generates higher supplier margins but only when the supplier has unlimited capacity. If the supplier has limited capacity, then their margins have no effect on retailers' stocking decisions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, retailers hold larger stocks of a product that has less demand uncertainty as compared to one that has more demand uncertainty.     

Reflections on the politics linking science,environment and innovation

Green technological innovation is the subject of much current research because it is expected to serve ‘competitiveness’ and ‘ecological modernization’. Research needs to be extended to cover institutional innovation and the combined socio‐political impacts of the new environmentalism. One entry into this area is to examine the links between science, environmental protection, innovation, and the distribution of political power. It is argued that institutionalized science — or the research‐cum‐consultancy enterprise — thrives on the claim that it is able to solve fashionable’ problems, especially future ones, by technological progress. There is little historical reason to reject such claims. However, these claims make science, and especially the environmental sciences, of immediate interest to those seeking new powers or defending existing privileges or markets. Proposed solutions tend to be threats to vested interests and distributions of wealth and influence. But the power of science reaches beyond responding to the concerns of the day, it strives to select those problems for society which create markets for planned research agendas and technologies still on the computer screen. The research enterprise, at the root of much technological and technical innovation, is not likely to succeed in imposing its choices on society without support in the market place or from government. It therefore becomes an important, if neglected, political actor, influencing and persuading not only with appeals to rationality, but also with promises of enhanced security, health and wealth. Having identified and selected problems, these are presented to society with pleas for remedial or preventive action. This paper reflects on the impact of these pleas on contemporary world politics. It is concluded that political systems must learn to evaluate and judge scientific claims more cautiously because research networks and the informal influence of science entrepreneurs on ‘the public’ tend to turn environmental change into policy problems. Once technological fixes’ are offered simultaneously, potential implementor and enforcers form alliances demanding state intervention to resolve the alleged problems. How real is the global environmental problem — the allegedly evergrowing ökologische Problemdruck? Does the seeking of green competitiveness in the ‘North’ in the name of preventing catastrophe, whilst de facto opposing industrialization and resource developments in the ‘South’ in the name of ‘sustainable development’, represent the essence of global politics of the 1990s?     

Design and analysis of computer experiments

The design and analysis of computer experiments as a relatively young research field is not only of high importance for many industrial areas but also presents new challenges and open questions for statisticians. This editorial introduces a special issue devoted to the topic. The included papers present an interesting mixture of recent developments in the field as they cover fundamental research on the design of experiments, models and analysis methods as well as more applied research connected to real-life applications.     

First German register based census in 2011

Summary The last censuses in Germany were accomplished in 1987 (former federal states) and 1981 (new federal states), respectively. Germany was the only country which did not participate in the EU-wide census in 2000. A traditional census was not feasible on political scale due to high costs and low acceptance by the population. Complete, precise and actual statistical registers as a condition for a register based census, are non-existent in Germany. Official statisticians developed a model for a register based census with interviewer-based surveys kept to a minimum. As the basic conditions were not favourable the model became very complex and many methods and procedures had to be developed for the special case of German registers. Core model elements were tested in a census test, such as quality of registers (e. g. municipal population registers, registers of the federal labour agency) and practicability of procedures (e. g. merging of registers, household generation). The test result was that a register based census is possible but much development work still has to be done, as the registers do not have an acceptable quality yet. Additional interviewer based surveys will be necessary for correction of errors of the register and survey of additional variables. This is also true if measures to improve municipal population registers, e. g. a feedback procedure and a nationwide tax number are taken into account. So these measures will not substitute the additional interviewer based surveys. Provided that the essential investments in development and preparation will be performed, Germany could participate in the 2011 EU-census-round with a register based census at a fraction of the cost of a traditional census. Finally, the census 2011 will show the real quality of the registers, how the model will work throughout the country and which measures have to be taken before the following census.

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Zusammenfassung In Deutschland wurde die letzte Volksz?hlung 1987 (Alte Bundesl?nder) bzw. 1981 (Neue Bundesl?nder) durchgeführt. An dem EU-weiten Zensus um das Jahr 2000 beteiligte sich Deutschland als einziger EU-Staat nicht, da ein herk?mmlicher Zensus aus Kosten- und Akzeptanzgründen politisch nicht durchsetzbar war. Die Voraussetzungen für einen Registerzensus, d. h. Statistikregister, die alle ben?tigten Merkmale mit hinreichender Genauigkeit und Aktualit?t enthalten, waren und sind nicht vorhanden. Amtliche Statistiker entwickelten ein Modell für einen registergestützten Zensus mit einem m?glichst geringen Anteil an prim?rstatistischen Erhebungen. Aufgrund der für einen Zensus auf Basis von Registern ungünstigen Rahmenbedingungen wurde dieses Modell relativ komplex und in vielen Bereichen statistisches Neuland betreten. Wesentliche Elemente des Modells wurden in einem sog. Zensustest überprüft. Getestet wurden insbesondere die Qualit?t und Aktualit?t vorhandener Register, wie Melderegister und Dateien der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, sowie die Eignung und Wirksamkeit der Verfahren, wie Zusammenführungen der Daten aus verschiedenen Quellen und Haushaltegenerierung. Die Tests best?tigten die Machbarkeit des Zensusmodells, zeigten aber gleichzeitig, dass noch umfangreiche Entwicklungsarbeiten erforderlich sind und dass die Register noch keine Qualit?t aufweisen, die einen Verzicht auf prim?rstatistische Erhebungen zur Korrektur und Erg?nzung der Registerergebnisse zulassen. Dies gilt auch unter Berücksichtigung der in den n?chsten Jahren vorgesehenen Ma?nahmen zur Verbesserung der Qualit?t der Melderegister, wie die Einführung eines elektronischen Rückmeldeverfahrens oder die Erg?nzung der Melderegister um eine bundeseinheitliche Steuernummer für jede Person. Soweit in den n?chsten Jahren die erforderlichen Investitionen in Entwicklung und Vorbereitung eines registergestützten Zensus get?tigt werden, k?nnte in Deutschland im Rahmen der n?chsten EU-Zensusrunde ein solcher Zensus im Jahre 2011 zu einem Bruchteil der Kosten eines herk?mmlichen Zensus durchgeführt werden. Erst mit diesem Zensus k?nnte dann letztlich festgestellt werden, welche Qualit?t die Register zu diesem Zeitpunkt aufweisen, wie sich das Modell eines registergestützten Zensus (fl?chendeckend) in der Praxis bew?hrt und welche Ma?nahmen für darauf folgende Zensen in Angriff genommen werden müssen.

     

Defining the co-operative difference

The paper argues that co-operative firms play a set of roles in market economies, based on the co-operative values and principles that are rarely noted in economic literature. Among other, those roles are to internalize market externalities, to serve as laboratories for social innovation, to espouse social entrepreneurship, to promote ethical business practices, and to aid in development. While economic literature has been focused primarily on the ownership and control structure as a source of the difference, we argue that this focus paints an incomplete picture. The principles of co-operation may supply additional insights in addressing questions why co-operatives may thrive in areas of low labour mobility, prevalent market failures, oligopoly markets, and labour intensive industries. They may also offer insights into strategies and survival in global markets of successful co-operative firms.