Wer Wind s?t, wird Sturm ernten

The present study deals with the theoretical and empirical analysis of the intergenerational transmission of violence. Within the framework of a systematic theory comparison, the self-control theory (Gottfredson und Hirschi 1990) and the social learning theory (Bandura 1979a, b) are used to analyze the mechanisms relating the experience of parental violence in childhood to the use of violence in adolescence (the so-called cycle of violence). The analyses are based on a survey of ninth-graders from schools in Dortmund and Stuttgart (n?=?4583) conducted by the Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony (KFN) in 2005. Data analyses are carried out based on linear structural equation modeling. The results reveal that both self-control and social learning processes mediate between the experience of violent parenting and the prevalence of juvenile violence; however, a greater relative share of the cycle of violence can be traced back to social learning processes. The systematic theory comparison points out that the social learning theory provides the superior explanation of the cycle of violence. The results of the study are discussed with regard to their implications for further theory development.     

Posterior likelihood ratios for evaluation of forensic trace evidence given a two-level model on the data

In forensic science, in order to determine whether sets of traces are from the same source or not, it is widely advocated to evaluate evidential value of similarity of the traces by likelihood ratios (LRs). If traces are expressed by measurements following a two-level model with random effects and known variances, closed LR formulas are available given normality, or kernel density distributions, on the effects. For the known variances estimators are used though, which leads to uncertainty on the resulting LRs which is hard to quantify. The above is analyzed in an approach in which both effects and variances are random, following standard prior distributions on univariate data, leading to posterior LRs. For non-informative and conjugate priors, closed LR formulas are obtained that are interesting in structure and generalize a known result given fixed variance. A semi-conjugate prior on the model seems usable in many applications. It is described how to obtain credible intervals using Monte Carlo Markov Chain and regular simulation, and an example is described for comparison of XTC tablets based on MDMA content. In this way, uncertainty on LR estimation is expressed more clearly which makes the evidential value more transparent in a judicial context.     

On likelihood ratio testing for penalized splines

Penalized spline regression using a mixed effects representation is one of the most popular nonparametric regression tools to estimate an unknown regression function $f(\cdot )$ . In this context testing for polynomial regression against a general alternative is equivalent to testing for a zero variance component. In this paper, we fill the gap between different published null distributions of the corresponding restricted likelihood ratio test under different assumptions. We show that: (1) the asymptotic scenario is determined by the choice of the penalty and not by the choice of the spline basis or number of knots; (2) non-standard asymptotic results correspond to common penalized spline penalties on derivatives of $f(\cdot )$ , which ensure good power properties; and (3) standard asymptotic results correspond to penalized spline penalties on $f(\cdot )$ itself, which lead to sizeable power losses under smooth alternatives. We provide simple and easy to use guidelines for the restricted likelihood ratio test in this context.     

A century of population aging in Germany

The population of Germany is becoming progressively more elderly, and this article focuses on the causes and implications of that trend. We discuss the demographic processes that occurred in Germany in the second half of the 20th century and describe the developments that the population of Germany will undergo in the next 50 years, which promise to exert a profound influence on the economic and social future of the country.     

Stop Making Sense! Erfolgreiche Teamkooperation in globalen Kontexten

With the ongoing globalization process and hierarchical organizations being extended by network oriented principles of governance, the effective team cooperation becomes a success criterion for the management of complex organizations. Group dynamics and organizational theory establish well known variables that have to be addressed for assuring the performance and effectiveness of team work. This article extends these findings by a focused analysis of characteristics of multinational teams. Moreover, success criteria for uncovering the available potential within international teams are explored. On the basis of ethnologic and system-theoretically considerations, the current status quo concerning the manifold integration efforts (such as the prevalent team building programs) will fundamentally be questioned as well as alternatives developed. Finally, the risks and opportunities of a difference oriented mindset will be illustrated on the basis of a concrete and practical example.     

“Limiting Birth”: Birth Control in Colonial Korea (1910–1945)

This article examines birth control as practice and discourse in 1920s and 1930s Korea under Japanese colonial rule and explores links with family planning and reproductive practices in post-1945 South Korea. The control of women’s reproduction held critical implications for meanings of domesticity, marriage, sexual relations, and new womanhood. While a woman-centered position did emerge regarding birth control, the parameters of the discourse, concerns of gynecology, and the material culture of birth control ultimately tied the bodies and health of women to their biological and social roles as mothers.

Boosting flexible functional regression models with a high number of functional historical effects

We propose a general framework for regression models with functional response containing a potentially large number of flexible effects of functional and scalar covariates. Special emphasis is put on historical functional effects, where functional response and functional covariate are observed over the same interval and the response is only influenced by covariate values up to the current grid point. Historical functional effects are mostly used when functional response and covariate are observed on a common time interval, as they account for chronology. Our formulation allows for flexible integration limits including, e.g., lead or lag times. The functional responses can be observed on irregular curve-specific grids. Additionally, we introduce different parameterizations for historical effects and discuss identifiability issues.The models are estimated by a component-wise gradient boosting algorithm which is suitable for models with a potentially high number of covariate effects, even more than observations, and inherently does model selection. By minimizing corresponding loss functions, different features of the conditional response distribution can be modeled, including generalized and quantile regression models as special cases. The methods are implemented in the open-source R package FDboost. The methodological developments are motivated by biotechnological data on Escherichia coli fermentations, but cover a much broader model class.     

A Measure of Subjective Happiness: Preliminary Reliability and Construct Validation

Using a 'subjectivist' approach to the assessment of happiness, a new 4-item measure of global subjective happiness was developed and validated in 14 studies with a total of 2 732 participants. Data was collected in the United States from students on two college campuses and one high school campus, from community adults in two California cities, and from older adults. Students and community adults in Moscow, Russia also participated in this research. Results indicated that the Subjective Happiness Scale has high internal consistency, which was found to be stable across samples. Test-retest and self-peer correlations suggested good to excellent reliability, and construct validation studies of convergent and discriminant validity confirmed the use of this scale to measure the construct of subjective happiness. The rationale for developing a new measure of happiness, as well as advantages of this scale, are discussed.     

Instantanés de la situation des jeunes générations sur le marché du travail aux Pays-Bas

La relation de travail Ṣtypiqueṣ perd du terrain aujourd'hui. Les jeunes sont particulièrement touchés par cette évolution. Dans ce contexte, les auteures examinent dans le détail le parcours d'insertion des générations arrivées sur le marché du travail des Pays-Bas entre 1985 et 2014, en procédant sur le modèle de l'analyse séquentielle des parcours de vie. Avec deux indicateurs spécifiques (niveau d'entropie et de turbulence), elles montrent que la trajectoire des cohortes qui s'insèrent après 2000, notamment en 2008, est effectivement plus accidentée, et ce malgré la politique de flexisécurité à l'honneur dans le pays. Les transitions vers l'emploi stable sont l'exception plutôt que la règle.     

Families in Later Life: A Decade in Review

Later-life families encompass the legal, biological, romantic, and kin-like relationships of persons ages 65 and older. Research on older families has flourished over the past decade, as population aging has intensified concerns regarding the capacities of families to care for older adults and the adequacy of public pension systems to provide an acceptable standard of living. Shifting patterns of family formation over the past half-century have created a context in which contemporary older adults' family lives differ markedly from earlier generations. Decreasing numbers of adults are growing old with their first and only spouse, with rising numbers divorcing, remarrying, forming non-marital romantic partnerships, or living single by choice. Remarriage and the formation of stepfamilies pose challenges and opportunities as older adults negotiate complex decisions such as inheritance and caregiving. Family relationships are consequential for older adults' well-being, operating through both biological and psychosocial mechanisms. We synthesize research from the past decade, revealing how innovations in data and methods have refined our understanding of late-life families against a backdrop of demographic change. We show how contemporary research refines classic theoretical frameworks and tests emerging conceptual models. We organize the article around two main types of family relationships: (1) marriage and romantic partnerships and (2) intergenerational relationships. We discuss how family caregiving occurs within these relationships, and offer three promising avenues for future research: ethnic minority and immigrant families; older adults without close kin (“elder orphans”); and the potentials of rapidly evolving technologies for intergenerational relationships and caregiving.