Childhood disease and the precautionary demand for children

The childhood disease burden depends on the prevalence of infectious diseases, their case fatalities, and long-term morbidity. We propose a quantity–quality model of fertility choice under uncertainty that emphasizes morbidity and mortality from infectious disease. The fertility response to a decline in child mortality depends on the morbidity effect of the disease, the prevalence rate, and whether the prevalence or case fatality rate declines. Fertility follows mortality and morbidity, but since mortality and morbidity do not always move in the same direction, the fertility response may be dampened or nonmonotonic. Disease-specific evidence from sub-Saharan Africa supports these theoretical predictions.     

Making Inter-country Comparison of Life Expectancy Inequality Sensitive

Two populations with the sameoverall longevity but different age andage-specific-mortality profiles may produce avariety of differences in terms of issues thatare relevant for development policy. A simplemethod of comparing countries has beensuggested in this paper, which is sensitive tosome of these differences that are usuallyhidden under life expectancy figures. In theprocess, some of the recent attempts inadjusting life expectancy for `inequality' havebeen critically examined.     

Exponentiated Geometric Distribution: Another Generalization of Geometric Distribution

Exponentiated geometric distribution with two parameters q(0 < q < 1) and α( > 0) is proposed as a new generalization of the geometric distribution by employing the techniques of Mudholkar and Srivastava (1993). A few realistics basis where the proposed distribution may arise naturally are discussed, its distributional and reliability properties are investigated. Parameter estimation is discussed. Application in discrete failure time data modeling is illustrated with real life data. The suitability of the proposed distribution in empirical modeling of other count data is investigated by conducting comparative data fitting experiments with over and under dispersed data sets.     

A new discrete probability distribution with integer support on (−∞, ∞)

ABSTRACT

A new discrete probability distribution with integer support on (?∞, ∞) is proposed as a discrete analog of the continuous logistic distribution. Some of its important distributional and reliability properties are established. Its relationship with some known distributions is discussed. Parameter estimation by maximum-likelihood method is presented. Simulation is done to investigate properties of maximum-likelihood estimators. Real life application of the proposed distribution as empirical model is considered by conducting a comparative data fitting with Skellam distribution, Kemp's discrete normal, Roy's discrete normal, and discrete Laplace distribution.     

A COM-Poisson-type generalization of the negative binomial distribution

ABSTRACT

This paper introduces a generalization of the negative binomial (NB) distribution in analogy with the COM-Poisson distribution. Many well-known distributions are particular and limiting distributions. The proposed distribution belongs to the modified power series, generalized hypergeometric and exponential families, and also arises as weighted NB and COM-Poisson distributions. Probability and moment recurrence formulae, and probabilistic and reliability properties have been derived. With the flexibility to model under-, equi- and over-dispersion, and its various interesting properties, this NB generalization will be a useful model for count data. An application to empirical modeling is illustrated with a real data set.     

Production lot sizing with process deterioration and machine breakdown under inspection schedule

The paper develops integrated production, inventory and maintenance models for a deteriorating production system in which the production facility may not only shift from an ‘in-control’ state to an ‘out-of-control’ state but also may break down at any random point in time during a production run. In case of machine breakdown, production of the interrupted lot is aborted and a new production lot is started when the on-hand inventory is depleted after corrective repair. The process is inspected during each production run to examine the state of the production process. If it is found in the ‘in-control’ state then either (a) no action is taken except at the time of last inspection where preventive maintenance is done (inspection policy-I) or (b) preventive maintenance is performed (inspection policy-II). If, however, the process is found to be in the ‘out-of-control’ state at any inspection then restoration is done. The proposed models are formulated under general shift, breakdown and repair time distributions. As it is, in general, difficult to find the optimal production policy under inspection policy-I, a suboptimal production policy is derived. Numerical examples are taken to determine numerically the optimal/suboptimal production policies of the proposed models, to examine the sensitivity of important model parameters and to compare the performance of inspection and no inspection policies.     

A discrete analog of Gumbel distribution: properties,parameter estimation and applications

A discrete version of the Gumbel distribution (Type-I Extreme Value distribution) has been derived by using the general approach of discretization of a continuous distribution. Important distributional and reliability properties have been explored. It has been shown that depending on the choice of parameters the proposed distribution can be positively or negatively skewed; possess long-tail(s). Log-concavity of the distribution and consequent results have been established. Estimation of parameters by method of maximum likelihood, method of moments, and method of proportions has been discussed. A method of checking model adequacy and regression type estimation based on empirical survival function has also been examined. A simulation study has been carried out to compare and check the efficacy of the three methods of estimations. The distribution has been applied to model three real count data sets from diverse application area namely, survival times in number of days, maximum annual floods data from Brazil and goal differences in English premier league, and the results show the relevance of the proposed distribution.     

Exploring the Urban–Rural Incarceration Divide: Drivers of Local Jail Incarceration Rates in the United States

ABSTRACT

A large body of research has focused on understanding mass incarceration in the United States through the lens of federal and state prison growth. However, local jail systems, with 11 million admissions each year, have received less research attention despite their broad impact on communities. Preliminary analysis conducted by the Vera Institute of Justice (Vera) uncovered geographical disparities in county jail incarceration rates. Contrary to assumptions that incarceration is an urban phenomenon, Vera discovered that, in recent decades, pretrial jail rates have declined or remained flat in many urban areas, whereas rates have grown in rural counties. In an effort to uncover factors contributing to continued jail growth in rural areas, Vera joined forces with Two Sigma’s Data Clinic, a volunteer-based program that leverages Two Sigma employees’ data science expertise. Determinants of local jail rates from 2000–2013 were examined using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model to account for correlations within counties over time. Results revealed that county-level poverty, police expenditures, and spillover effects from other county and state authorities are significant predictors of local jail rates. Investigation of model residuals revealed clusters of counties where observed rates were much higher than expected conditioned upon county variables.     

Urbanization of Muslim Community in India—A Metaphor for Development? Evidences from States of West Bengal and Kerala

Historically, the religious affiliation of urbanization in India has always rendered a relative advantage for Muslim Community. During 2000–2011, in situ urbanization process has strengthened this popular belief. This trend is more pronounced in the states of Kerala and West Bengal, perhaps due to the colossal escalation of new Census Towns (CTs). This present study is an endeavour to understand whether recent upsurge of urbanization among Muslims in India can be linked with “development” in these two states based on availabilities of Basic Urban Infrastructures (BUIs), principally in the new CTs. This has been done by employing an “availability index” of infrastructures by obtaining data from Village Directory of West Bengal and Kerala, Census of India. The BUIs include educational and health institutions, bus and railway services and drinking water facility. Most importantly, where these amenities were absent in 2001, the distance travelled by the inhabitants, to get access to these services has also been examined here. The study concludes through extending the debate on whether an increase in the number of population, particularly of Muslim community, in urban areas can be taken as a true signature of development or not.